Old Dominion

1-1

Sun Belt · Ricky Rahne, year 7 (31-34) · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 20,118 · 21,944 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#66 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #88 (-6.2) · FPI #96
The marketOld Dominion by 3vs East Carolina · our model 66% Old Dominion · a number, not a pick

LastL 21–44 at Virginia Tech · Sat Sep 12 · Quinn Henicle 187 pass yds, 1 TD, 83 rush yds

Nextvs East Carolina · Sat Sep 19 · 6 pm ET · S.B. Ballard Stadium · Old Dominion by 3 · series 0-5, lost the last 5 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
26.0
Pts allowed/game
27.0
Total yards/gm#120 / 138 · 13th pct
314.5
Rush yards/gmT-#83 / 138 · 40th pct
152.5
Pass yards/gm#120 / 138 · 13th pct
162.0
Yards allowed/gm#63 / 138 · 55th pct
318.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#59 / 138 · 58th pct
107.5
SacksT-#11 / 138 · 89th pct
7
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down conv#70 / 138 · 50th pct
40.9%
All 85 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
629314.5/gm5.88/play#120 / 138 · 13th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
636318.0/gm4.36/play#63 / 138 · 55th pct#46 / 70 · 35th pct#6 / 14 · 61st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
305152.5/gm2.85/playT-#83 / 138 · 40th pct#45 / 70 · 36th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
215107.5/gm1.47/play#59 / 138 · 58th pct#45 / 70 · 36th pct#5 / 14 · 68th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
7336.5/gmT-#76 / 138 · 45th pct#41 / 70 · 42nd pct#7 / 14 · 54th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
8241.0/gmT-#113 / 138 · 18th pct#65 / 70 · 8th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pctT-#9 / 14 · 25th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#86 / 138 · 31st pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pctT-#9 / 14 · 32nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
324162.0/gm3.03/play#120 / 138 · 13th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
421210.5/gm2.88/play#73 / 138 · 47th pct#46 / 70 · 35th pct#9 / 14 · 39th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
3417.0/gm#131 / 138 · 5th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
6432.0/gmT-#88 / 138 · 36th pctT-#46 / 70 · 34th pctT-#10 / 14 · 29th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
2211.0/gmT-#126 / 138 · 8th pctT-#65 / 70 · 7th pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
4623.0/gmT-#117 / 138 · 15th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 41st pctT-#44 / 70 · 31st pctT-#5 / 14 · 57th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 57th pctT-#29 / 70 · 46th pctT-#4 / 14 · 64th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
168.0168.0#27 / 115 · 77th pct#22 / 60 · 64th pct#3 / 13 · 81st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp
134.3134.3#62 / 91 · 32nd pct#35 / 42 · 18th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 70 · 53rd pctT-#4 / 14 · 61st pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 70 · 64th pctT-#2 / 14 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
73.5/gmT-#11 / 138 · 89th pctT-#7 / 70 · 88th pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp
94.5/gmT-#135 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
2110.5/gmT-#5 / 138 · 96th pct#3 / 70 · 96th pctT-#3 / 14 · 79th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp
2110.5/gmT-#136 / 138 · 1st pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
2713.5/gmT-#131 / 138 · 5th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
3819.0/gmT-#81 / 138 · 40th pctT-#53 / 70 · 24th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
94.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#50 / 70 · 24th pctT-#6 / 14 · 50th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
147.0/gmT-#111 / 138 · 17th pctT-#60 / 70 · 12th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2211.0/gmT-#105 / 138 · 21st pctT-#50 / 70 · 24th pct#10 / 14 · 32nd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
3618.0/gmT-#126 / 138 · 8th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 14 · 64th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#104 / 138 · 19th pctT-#56 / 70 · 16th pctT-#11 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 70 · 44th pctT-#6 / 14 · 46th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
63.0/gmT-#112 / 138 · 14th pctT-#59 / 70 · 11th pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
49:1724:38/gm#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
70:4335:22/gm#126 / 138 · 9th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#13 / 14 · 11th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.61 EPA/play10222 / 3366.73249.83
#60 FBS
1173.168
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
-0.24 EPA/play3222964.4021
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.47 EPA/play82511022034
+0.38 EPA/play1268113.5038
+0.90 EPA/play1125489.62
#24 FBS
14

2026 stat leaders · Old Dominion

through 2 games

Jordan Saunders leads Old Dominion with 20 tackles through 2 games.

1. Jordan Saunders S 20 tackles
2. Mario Thompson LB 19 tackles
3. JaMez Drummer LB 13 tackles
4. Koa Naotala LB 12 tackles
5. Deandre Lynch DL 12 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Old Dominion fields an elite run-heavy offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
81st pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
62% run plays
Defense
96th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
99th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Old Dominion · 2025

Old Dominion reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 2%) and epa allowed (top 5%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Old Dominion sits at the 72nd percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.24
81st
Success Rate +0.45
74th
Explosive Plays +1.32
72nd
Rushing EPA +0.16
73rd

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.01
96th
Success Rate Allowed +0.37
83rd
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.07
99th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.07
92nd

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.37
74th
Rushing EPA Allowed -0.02
89th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Old Dominion · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Old Dominion is worth +2.9 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 27th percentile of 133 programs

46% at home, 28% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (17–20 home, 12–31 away). Interval ±3.8.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Old Dominion has beaten the number by −1.2 more at home than away over 73 games — inside the ±7.9 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

S.B. Ballard Stadium seats 20,118 and has averaged 96% full (19,286, 24 games reported). Visitors cover a median 351 miles to get here since 2018 — 51st-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 17% of the 2026 roster (24 of 143 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 43 home games since 2018.

Home17–20Away12–31Edge+2.9 ±3.8Visitor trip351 mi

More in this tab

Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Old Dominion’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Blake Seiler (2020–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2021: 42% → 2026: 28% · 25-pt range · #6 of 203 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2021: 41% → 2026: 28% · 31-pt range · #8 of 200 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2021: 34% → 2025: 29% · 13-pt range · #117 of 189 · a typical amount
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Old Dominion

CFB Zeitgeist

#66

+0.7

SP+

#88

-6.2

FPI

#96

-7.0

Elo

#113

1289

The national models put Old Dominion between 88th and 113th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 66th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Old Dominion

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

67°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 69 home games with weather data.

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