Next game: vs Georgia
Georgia’s best edge on Ole Miss is staying on schedule
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Ole Miss offense against Georgia defense
Georgia offense against Ole Miss defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.41 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 189 / 296 | 63.9 | 2189 #13 FBS | 7.4 | 18 #14 FBS | 8 | 140.6 | 73 | 81.8 | 7.2 | 1.7 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #11 right now. This week's matchup — QB Chambliss extends plays on the move until something opens up. Mateer is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage14.0% bottom 22th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.1 80th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Trinidad Chambliss's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.20 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 78 | 388 | 5.0 | 5 | 28 | 18.2 | 14.3 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 78 carries and 10 catches in 6 games. More touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Lacy does a little of everything without one standout trait. Avant is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry5.5 55th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.3 bottom 7th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kewan Lacy's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.11 EPA/play | 25 | 7 | 68 | 357 | 5.2 | 0 | 34 | 14.7 | 13.2 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 68 carries and 8 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Frazier just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Avant is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Weight225 lb 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Makhi Frazier's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.41 EPA/play | 33 | 2 | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 2 | 35 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| -0.14 EPA/play | 26 | 6 | 28 | 94 | 3.4 | 0 | 11 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.57 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 48 | 669 #25 FBS | 13.9 | 5 #39 FBS | 62 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Impact starter — 48 catches and 4 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Alexander wins underneath on volume and route precision. Choice is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume48 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception14.5 61th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Deuce Alexander's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.57 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 27 | 360 | 13.3 | 2 | 35 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 27 catches in 7 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Odom shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Beers is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception13.3 74th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume27 88th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Odom's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.70 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 28 | 356 | 12.7 | 5 #39 FBS | 31 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 28 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Fields wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Choice is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt TD rate17.9% 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 75th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Horatio Fields's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.95 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 21 | 289 | 13.8 | 1 | 36 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Ray moves the chains on third down. Choice is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception15.2 68th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Traylon Ray's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.84 EPA/play | 3 | 5 | 19 | 231 | 12.2 | 2 | 25 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Cunningham moves the chains on third down. Choice is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception11.9 bottom 33th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Cunningham's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.30 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 0 | 19 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Hasz shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Beers is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception5.7 bottom 8th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 13th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Luke Hasz's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.32 EPA/play | — | 4 | 8 | 74 | 9.2 | 1 | 17 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 3 | 8 | 30 | 16 | 8 #50 FBS | 4.5 #60 FBS | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — 30 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Blake Purchase's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 5 | 7 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 23 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.7% 60th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kamarion Franklin's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 52 | 8 | 21 | 8 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 21 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View William Echoles's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 96 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jamarious Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 17 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% bottom 42th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jonathan Maldonado's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 88 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight355 lb 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Michai Boireau's full player page | |||||||
| 9 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thumper | 11 | 8 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 51 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.9% bottom 38th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume51 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keaton Thomas's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 49 | 8 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 46 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume46 68th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tah'j Butler's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 12 | 8 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 44 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Luke Ferrelli's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 4 | 8 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 3.5 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate13.0% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Suntarine Perkins's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 38 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume38 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Sharif Denson's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 2 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 3.5 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 32 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume32 89th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaylon Braxton's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 8 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 30 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume30 84th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Antonio Kite's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Joenel Aguero's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 6 | 20 | 1 | 2 #51 FBS | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jay Crawford's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 14 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 67th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Edwin Joseph's full player page | |||||||
| 29 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 | |
| 31 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 24 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 43 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 17 | 8 | 12/15 | 80 | 35/35 | 71 | 57 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 33 | 8 | 26 | 1190 | 45.8 | 60 | 8 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.95 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 6 | 111 | 18.5 | 0 | 26 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.57 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 | 20 |
Biggest plays from Ole Miss’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Ole Miss’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 13:57 · Ole Miss down 7, ties itTrinidad Chambliss finds Horatio Fields for a 27-yard touchdownOle Miss at Texas, week 8Q4, 13:57 · Ole Miss 24, Texas 24▲27%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 13% to 40%▲27%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 13% to 40%T.Chambliss pass complete deep left to H.Fields caught at TEXAS00, for 27 yards to the TEXAS00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q3, 3:05 · LSU down 10Sam Leavitt finds Winston Watkins for a 26-yard touchdownLSU at Ole Miss, week 3Q3, 3:05 · LSU 21, Ole Miss 24▲24%LSU’s chance to win, 14% to 38%▲24%LSU’s chance to win, 14% to 38%S.Leavitt pass complete deep right to W.Watkins Jr. caught at OM00, for 26 yards to the OM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 6:14 · Ole Miss breaks the tieTrinidad Chambliss runs 14 yards for a touchdownLSU at Ole Miss, week 3Q4, 6:14 · Ole Miss 32, LSU 24Ole Miss answered right backOle Miss answered right backT.Chambliss rush left for 14 yards gain to the LSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN J.Lindsey rush attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 0:58 · LSU down 8Jaylon Braxton intercepts Sam LeavittLSU at Ole Miss, week 3Q4, 0:58 · LSU 24, Ole Miss 32▼23%LSU’s chance to win, 24% to 1%▼23%LSU’s chance to win, 24% to 1%S.Leavitt pass intercepted by J.Braxton at OM00 broken up by K.Franklin, Touchback▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 2:00 · Ole Miss up 3Kewan Lacy runs 5 yards for a touchdownLSU at Ole Miss, week 3Q1, 2:00 · Ole Miss 10, LSU 0▲21%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 59% to 80%▲21%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 59% to 80%K.Lacy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 9:49 · Ole Miss up 10Trinidad Chambliss finds Traylon Ray for a 21-yard touchdownLSU at Ole Miss, week 3Q2, 9:49 · Ole Miss 17, LSU 092Capped a 92-yard drive92Capped a 92-yard driveCapped a 92-yard driveT.Chambliss pass complete short left to T.Ray caught at LSU06, for 21 yards to the LSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Ole Miss lost 2 of 8 games, none after a real lead; the closest win was against Louisville, down to 13%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Ole Miss during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Ole Miss
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Ole MissDeuce Alexander leads Ole Miss with 669 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+19 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Ole Miss fields an elite pass-first, methodical, ball-control offense behind a leaky defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Ole Miss reads strongest in success rate (top 6%) and rushing EPA (top 10%); the crux lives in field position (O), where Ole Miss sits at the 20th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Ole Miss is worth +5.4 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 70th percentile of 133 programs
75% at home, 46% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (40-13 home, 18-21 away). Interval ±4.1.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Ole Miss has beaten the number by +1.5 more at home than away over 99 games. That is inside the ±5.4 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium seats 64,038 and has averaged 102% full (65,551, 33 games reported). Visitors cover a median 289 miles to get here since 2018 — 30th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 16% of the 2026 roster (19 of 116 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 60 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatCayden Lee is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatDae'Quan Wright is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Garbage timeKewan Lacy does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Kewan Lacy and Makhi Frazier split the carries (76/144 vs 68/144) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Deuce Alexander (WR) and Caleb Odom (TE) split the targets (68/109 vs 41/109) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Caleb Odom is the one trusted on 3rd down; Caleb Odom produces in bigger chunks.
See it develop week by week
3rd-down target share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Ole Miss actually scores
80th percentile quality, 8th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Ole Miss’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 98th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 98th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Ole Miss hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
81st percentile success on standard downs, 94th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Ole Miss by half
1st-half offense ranks 59th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 95th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Ole Miss’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.25; 88th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.09. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.31 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Ole Miss’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.1% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 265-play sample) — mid-pack, 64 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Ole Miss’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.5% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 225-play sample) — mid-pack, 74 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 71% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
5 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in at a normal clip: 19% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.
7 interceptions of 37 disrupted passes (30 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags have favored them: 71 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 63 committed, 59 yards to the good.
536 penalty yards committed vs. 595 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Ole Miss
Most similar programs · Ole MissReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Ole Miss’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 57°, between 42° and 68° in about 7 in 10 games (35 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 62°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 80° (43 of 45 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.