Next game: vs Fresno State
Fresno State’s best edge on Utah State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Utah State offense against Fresno State defense
Fresno State offense against Utah State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.02 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 99 / 178 | 55.6 | 1120 | 6.3 | 7 | 6 | 114.7 | 17 | 46.8 | 4.7 | 8.2 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. 178 pass attempts and 99 carries in 7 games. About as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Brosterhous extends plays on the move until something opens up. Denegal is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage35.7% 92th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %56.5% bottom 10th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Grady Brosterhous's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.19 EPA/play | 2 | 3 | 34 / 59 | 57.6 | 398 | 6.7 | 3 | 4 | 117.5 | 27 | 43.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| -1.45 EPA/play | 12 | — | 13 / 21 | 61.9 | 111 | 5.3 | 0 | 2 | 87.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.13 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 98 | 491 | 5.0 | 3 | 64 | 18.2 | 12.1 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 98 carries and 16 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Javen Jacobs's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.51 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 37 | 479 | 12.9 | 5 #39 FBS | 33 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 37 catches in 7 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Eli Wood's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.19 EPA/play | — | 7 | 19 | 267 | 14.1 | 2 | 78 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine This week's matchup — WR Robinson moves the chains on third down. Hawkins is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception15.5 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javon Robinson's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.40 EPA/play | 1 | 6 | 26 | 254 | 9.8 | 0 | 27 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 26 catches, 4 carries and 2 pass attempts in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Garcia moves the chains on third down. Hawkins is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception10.7 bottom 22th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Anthony Garcia's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.17 EPA/play | 20 | — | 17 | 252 | 14.8 | 2 | 39 | |
Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Kjar moves the chains on third down. Hawkins is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception14.6 62th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 16th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tate Kjar's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.53 EPA/play | 6 | 5 | 10 | 139 | 13.9 | 1 | 41 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 4 | 3 | 6 | 98 | 16.3 | 0 | 43 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.22 EPA/play | 18 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 0 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 28 | 8 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 31 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Carson Tujague's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 9 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — 30 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyree Morris's full player page | |||||||
| 51 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 90 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 8 | 64 | 26 | 38 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 64 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume64 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate11.7% 67th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Asher Cunningham's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 41 | — | 37 | 24 | 13 | 12.5 #6 FBS | 7 #7 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. The rare part: he ranges sideline to sideline — and he lives in the backfield, too 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate33.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carl Nesmith's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 14 | 8 | 36 | 12 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Bronson Olevao's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 17 | 8 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 3 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.1% 64th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate9.3% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Pendleton's full player page | |||||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 58 | — | 23 | 8 | 15 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 23 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.2% 50th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View John Gayer's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume21 bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate9.5% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View James Jennette's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 32 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Adonis Jackson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 3 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Harrison Taggart's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 55 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tevita Tuha's full player page | |||||||||
| 25 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| — | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 16 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | — | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 4 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 62 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume62 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brevin Hamblin's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 23 | — | 46 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 46 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume46 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Titan Saxton's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | — | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 45 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.9% 55th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Gio Kafentzis's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 8 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 7.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 42 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume42 81th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View David Kabongo's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 15 | 8 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 36 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume36 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View D'Angelo Mayes's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.1% bottom 27th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Chapman Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 5 | 7 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 28 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.9% 65th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Markie Grant's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kye Stokes's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.7% bottom 29th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bobby Arnold III's full player page | |||||||
| 13 | — | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 21 | — | 8/10 | 80 | 38/38 | 62 | 52 |
| Steady | 19 | 7 | 7/12 | 58.3 | 14/14 | 35 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 3 | 7 | 35 | 1495 | 42.7 | 60 | 16 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.07 EPA/play | 23 | 8 | 6 | 134 | 22.3 | 0 | 30 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.13 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 14 | 86 | 6.1 | 0 | 19 |
Biggest plays from Utah State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Utah State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:13 · Utah State down 12Tre Shorty intercepts Grady BrosterhousIdaho State at Utah State, week 1Q4, 0:13 · Utah State 17, Idaho State 29▲22%Utah State’s chance to win, 18% to 40%▲22%Utah State’s chance to win, 18% to 40%G.Brosterhous pass intercepted by T.Shorty at ISU01 T.Shorty return 0 yards to the ISU01, End Of Play penalty USU Holding declined▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football- Q1, 1:24 · Troy tiedTroy turns it overTroy at Utah State, week 4Q1, 1:24 · Troy 7, Utah State 7▼19%Troy’s chance to win, 44% to 25%▼19%Troy’s chance to win, 44% to 25%J.Lovett rush middle for 15 yards loss to the USU50 fumbled by J.Lovett at USU35 recovered by TROY G.Crowder at USU50, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNS▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 0:25 · Troy up 3D'Angelo Mayes intercepts Will Crowder and returns it 30 yardsTroy at Utah State, week 4Q2, 0:25 · Troy 10, Utah State 7▼19%Troy’s chance to win, 61% to 42%▼19%Troy’s chance to win, 61% to 42%G.Crowder pass intercepted by D.Mayes at USU15 D.Mayes return 30 yards to the USU45 (G.Griffin), out of bounds▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 11:02 · Utah State down 3, takes the leadGrady Brosterhous finds Eli Wood for a 5-yard touchdownTroy at Utah State, week 4Q3, 11:02 · Utah State 14, Troy 10Go-ahead score for Utah State in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Utah State in the third quarterG.Brosterhous pass complete short right to E.Wood caught at TROY00, for 5 yards to the TROY00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 8:07 · Utah State down 8, ties itAnthony Garcia finds Kaina Watson for a 6-yard touchdownUtah State at Texas State, week 8Q4, 8:07 · Utah State 17, Texas State 170Anthony Garcia, with no passes this season before the game, throws the game-tying touchdown pass0Anthony Garcia, with no passes this season before the game, throws the game-tying touchdown passAnthony Garcia, with no passes this season before the game, throws the game-tying touchdown passA.Garcia pass complete short right to K.Watson caught at TXST00, for 6 yards to the TXST00 touchdown J.Jacobs pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
Q4, 14:13 · Idaho State up 2Jordan Cooke finds Chedon James for an 8-yard touchdownIdaho State at Utah State, week 1Q4, 14:13 · Idaho State 26, Utah State 17▲15%Idaho State’s chance to win, 45% to 60%▲15%Idaho State’s chance to win, 45% to 60%J.Cooke pass complete short left to C.James caught at USU00, for 8 yards to the USU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Utah State lost to Idaho State after being 77% to win; the closest win was against Washington State, down to 11%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Utah State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Utah State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Utah StateAsher Cunningham leads Utah State with 64 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+17 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Utah State fields a struggling pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Utah State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 13%) and red-zone defense (top 22%); the crux lives in red-zone finish, where Utah State sits at the 4th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Utah State is worth +5.2 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 67th percentile of 133 programs
62% at home, 43% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (26-16 home, 21-28 away). Interval ±4.4.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Utah State has beaten the number by +0.7 more at home than away over 97 games. That is inside the ±6.5 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Maverik Stadium seats 25,513 and has averaged 72% full (18,246, 26 games reported). Visitors cover a median 446 miles to get here since 2018 — 64th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 33% of the 2026 roster (52 of 158 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Javen Jacobs and Noah White split the carries (98/114 vs 16/114) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Eli Wood (WR) and Kache Kaio (TE) split the targets (58/65 vs 7/65) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Utah State actually scores
0th percentile quality, 100th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Utah State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 22nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 35th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Utah State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
3rd percentile success on standard downs, 76th on passing downs — a 73-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Utah State by half
1st-half offense ranks 15th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 14th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Utah State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.02; 22nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.10 raw vs. -0.00 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Utah State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Utah State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 205-play sample) — mid-pack, 22 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Utah State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.3% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 216-play sample) — mid-pack, 130 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 67% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
6 of 9 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Deflections without payoff: 10% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
3 interceptions of 31 disrupted passes (28 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 62 penalties committed vs. 49 drawn on opponents, 80 yards behind.
531 penalty yards committed vs. 451 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Utah State
Most similar programs · Utah StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Utah State’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT · 4,685 ft above sea level
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 40°, between 30° and 50° in about 7 in 10 games (32 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 61°, and 8 in 10 ran between 36° and 78° (49 of 57 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.