#10

Bo Nix

Former quarterback at Oregon. 2023: 4,508 passing yards, 45 TD, 3 INT.

QB · Oregon · Sr. · #10

6′2″ · 217 lb · Pinson, AL

CFB Index 96 · #2 of 140 QBsHigh confidencePOTY finalist (model)Denver — drafted 2024, Rd 1, Pick 12, #12 overall

The story

Former quarterback at Oregon. 2023: 4,508 passing yards, 45 TD, 3 INT.

Drafted round 1 by the Denver in 2024.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Two seasons at Oregon, 8,102 passing yards, a first-team All-Conference season (2023) — drafted at #12 overall by Denver.

His career

Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.

202314 games

All-Pac-12First Team
Campbellwinner

2024

Drafted by Denverround 1, pick 12

Career arc

Recruit

—

No recruit profile

CFB

College

Oregon

2022–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

R1 · #12

Denver · 2024

Trophy case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

2 honors · 1 category

🥈

ALL-PAC-12 · 1ST TEAM

All-Pac-12 1st team (2023)

Where He Ended Up · NFL

DenverEntering 3rd NFL season

#12Rd 1 · Pick 12

DenverEntering 3rd NFL season

View college career stats ↓

2023 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2 seasons under Dan Lanning — 22-5 over that span.

2022Oregon10-3HC: Dan Lanning · Run-leaning

2023Oregon12-2HC: Dan Lanning · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

96All-America level #2 of 140?

High confidence12 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: sack rate (100th percentile). Strength: success rate (99th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Sack rate#1 / 177 · 100th pct

1.2%

Success rate#2 / 177 · 99th pct

56.5%

EPA / dropback#9 / 177 · 95th pct

0.55

Explosive rate#51 / 177 · 71st pct

11.9%

Interception rate#83 / 177 · 53rd pct

0.5%

Box-score rates (7)

Pass TDs#1 / 179 · 100th pct

Completion %#1 / 179 · 100th pct

77.4%

Pass yards#2 / 179 · 99th pct

4508

Yards / att#6 / 179 · 97th pct

9.6

Interceptions#18 / 179 · 85th pct

Rush TDs#32 / 179 · 81st pct

Rush yards#63 / 179 · 65th pct

234

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

88th → 95th percentile

Success rate

100th → 99th percentile

Explosive rate

90th → 71st percentile

Sack rate

99th → 100th percentile

Interception rate

75th → 53rd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

354/459 (77.1%) · 45 TD · 3 INT

459 of 470 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

11.044 of 212 QBs

Sack rate

1.1%6 of 212 QBs

Rarely sacked (6 of 212 QBs) and still 4 of 212 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

54%of completions

191 comp4.9 yds avg6 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

31%of completions

108 comp14.1 yds avg14 TD

Deep

20+ yds

16%of completions

55 comp35.2 yds avg16 TD

Overall 77.1% completion on 459 attempts · 55 deep completions averaging 35.2 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline

No situation moves him more than 45 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-38 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 3/169 (1.8%) · league sack rate 4.9% · ~our read

Down 2

+23 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 1/126 (0.8%) · league sack rate 5.2% · ~our read

Down 3+

+45 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 0/79 (0.0%) · league sack rate 9.1% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2023 season · 14 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home8g	329	3.2	10.4	0.2
Road6g	313	3.2	9.0	0.2

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	308	3.1	9.1	0.1
Weeks 8+7g	336	3.3	10.5	0.3

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Dan Lanning

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2023

POTY finalist (model)

Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

96 · #2 of 140 QBs

Career stats

Season	Team
2023	Oregon	364	470	77.4%	4,508	9.6	45	3	188.3	94	--	--
2022	Oregon	294	408	72.1%	3,594	8.8	29	7	166.1	86	--	--
Career		658	878	74.9%	8,102	9.2	74	10	178.0	90	--	--

Season	Team
2023	Oregon	54	234	4.3	6	--
2022	Oregon	88	514	5.8	14	--
Career		142	748	5.3	20	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 13 · 2023

W 31–7

vs Oregon State

367 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 97.4 · 31 rush yds (6 car) · 1 TD

Dominant 24-point win at home against Oregon State.

With T. Johnson — 11 rec · 137 yds · T. Franklin — 9 rec · 128 yds · 1 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 11 · USC · 3&13 · Q1 · EPA +7.30Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 84 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Week 10 · California · 2&37 · Q1 · EPA +7.03Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
Week 2 · Texas Tech · 2&7 · Q1 · EPA +6.37Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 72 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
Week 12 · Arizona State · 2&7 · Q2 · EPA +6.31Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 71 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
Week 11 · USC · 2&4 · Q1 · EPA +6.27Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 77 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
Week 12 · Arizona State · 2&15 · Q2 · EPA +5.12Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 45 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
Week 14 · Washington · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +5.05Traeshon Holden 63 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)
Week 13 · Oregon State · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.12Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 41 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
Week 2 · Texas Tech · 4&1 · Q3 · EPA -3.79Bo Nix run for no gain to the TTU 17
Week 3 · Hawai'i · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.76Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 49 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2023 season · 14 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 81-7vs Portland State	23/27	287	3	0	10.6	88.8	5 TD passes
Wk 2	W 38-30@ Texas Tech	32/44	359	2	0	8.2	78.0	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 3	W 55-10vs Hawai'i	21/27	247	3	0	9.1	88.1	3 TD passes
Wk 4	W 42-6vs Colorado	28/33	276	3	1	8.4	75.7	3 TD passes
Wk 5	W 42-6@ Stanford	27/32	290	4	0	9.1	91.8	4 TD passes
Wk 7	L 33-36@ Washington	33/44	337	2	0	7.7	82.0	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 8	W 38-24vs Washington State	18/25	293	2	0	11.7	85.9	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 9	W 35-6@ Utah	24/31	248	2	0	8.0	95.2
Wk 10	W 63-19vs California	29/38	386	4	1	10.2	85.9	4 TD passes
Wk 11	W 36-27vs USC	23/31	412	4	0	13.3	96.0	Season-high 412 yds
Wk 12	W 49-13@ Arizona State	24/29	404	6	0	13.9	99.5	6 TD passes
Wk 13	W 31-7vs Oregon State	33/40	367	2	0	9.2	97.4	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 14	L 31-34@ Washington	21/34	239	3	1	7.0	89.0	3 TD passes
Bowl	W 45-6vs Liberty	28/35	363	5	0	10.4	93.6
Total		364/470	4508	45	3	9.8	89.1

How he plays

Play style

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

80.0%Completion %

41.7%Conversion/dropback

46.4%Land short of sticks

0INTs

80.0% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 41.7% conversion-per-dropback — 46.4% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

5/22Inside-5 share

5 of the team's 22 inside-the-5 carries (22.7%).