Caleb Ducking

Senior wide receiver for Mississippi State. 2022: 46 catches, 477 receiving yards, 8 TD.

WR · Mississippi State · Sr. · #4

6′5″ · 200 lb · Rolling Fork, MS

CFB Index 53 · #186 of 488 WRsHigh confidenceMississippi State 2022 alumnus

Recruiting

3★

WR recruit

No. 56 nationally · Joined Mississippi State

No college snaps yet.

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 wide receiver for Mississippi State. 2022: 46 catches, 477 receiving yards, 8 TD.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to Mississippi State in 2020.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Two seasons at Mississippi State, 560 receiving yards — his college career is complete.

His career

The week the volume broke through — stacked 2 td at Arizona.Arizona · W 39-172022

2020

Signed with Mississippi State3-star out of Holmes C.C.

2023

Entered the portal

Career arc

Recruit

★★★

#56 national

CFB

College

Mississippi State

2021–2022

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

2022 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2 seasons under Mike Leach — 16-10 over that span.

2021Mississippi State7-6HC: Mike Leach · Pass-heavy, fast tempo

2022Mississippi State9-4HC: Mike Leach · Pass-heavy

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

53Rotational starter #186 of 488?

High confidence11 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: td rate (95th percentile). Strength: rec tds (93rd percentile). Concern: yards / catch (27th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

TD rate#34 / 636 · 95th pct

14.5%

Catch rate#201 / 636 · 68th pct

83.6%

EPA / target#339 / 636 · 47th pct

0.66

Explosive rate#458 / 636 · 27th pct

9.1%

Yards / catch#465 / 636 · 27th pct

10.4

Box-score rates (6)

Rec TDs#34 / 550 · 93rd pct

Receptions#146 / 550 · 73rd pct

Rec yards#233 / 550 · 58th pct

477

Fumbles lost#71 / 223 · 41st pct

Long catch#433 / 550 · 21st pct

Yards / catch#452 / 550 · 18th pct

10.4

Season trend

EPA / target— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Catch rate— first qualifying season

TD rate— first qualifying season

Yards / catch— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2022 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Home7g	3.4	45.4	13.1	0.9
Road6g	3.7	26.5	7.0	0.3

First half vs Second half

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Weeks 1-78g	4.4	45.5	10.4	0.9
Weeks 8+5g	2.2	22.6	10.2	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Jeff Lebby

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2022

Rotational

Earning real snaps in the rotation without a starting job.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

53 · #186 of 488 WRs

Three-star recruit. Now #186 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2022	Mississippi State	46	477	10.4	8	--
2021	Mississippi State	9	83	9.2	0	--
Career		55	560	10.2	8	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 13 · 2022

W 24–22

at Ole Miss

2 rec · 17 yds

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 2 on the road.

With G. Georgopoulos — 49 AVG · 3 IN 20 · 56 LONG · W. Rogers — 239 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT · QBR 27.8 · -37 rush yds (8 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 6 · Arkansas · 2&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.54Caleb Ducking 33 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Week 1 · Memphis · 3&1 · Q3 · EPA +3.43Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 35 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
Week 4 · Bowling Green · 3&1 · Q2 · EPA +2.96Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)
Week 4 · Bowling Green · 4&4 · Q1 · EPA +2.67Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 12 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Bowling Green · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +2.65Caleb Ducking 22 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Ben Raybon Kick)
Week 5 · Texas A&M · 3&3 · Q2 · EPA +2.65Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)
Week 10 · Auburn · 2&5 · Q1 · EPA +2.52Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 13 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
Week 2 · Arizona · 1&9 · Q1 · EPA +2.42Caleb Ducking 9 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Massimo Biscardi PAT failed)
Week 10 · Auburn · 2&13 · Q3 · EPA +2.13Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 18 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down
Week 2 · Arizona · 2&2 · Q4 · EPA +2.07Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2022 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 49-23vs Memphis	3	73	24.3	1	35
Wk 2	W 39-17@ Arizona	7	56	8.0	2	14	2 TD catches
Wk 3	L 16-31@ LSU	4	33	8.3	0	16
Wk 4	W 45-14vs Bowling Green	7	96	13.7	2	26	Season-high 96 yds
Wk 5	W 42-24vs Texas A&M	3	14	4.7	1	7
Wk 6	W 40-17vs Arkansas	4	50	12.5	1	33
Wk 7	L 17-27@ Kentucky	5	32	6.4	0	12
Wk 8	L 6-30@ Alabama	2	11	5.5	0	6
Wk 10	W 39-33vs Auburn	2	31	15.5	1	18
Wk 11	L 19-45vs Georgia	2	20	10.0	0	13
Wk 12	W 56-7vs East Tennessee State	3	34	11.3	0	15
Wk 13	W 24-22@ Ole Miss	2	17	8.5	0	15
Bowl	W 19-10@ Illinois	2	10	5.0	0	7
Total		46	477	10.3	8	35

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology