New school, new number, same question — and Davis Warren's early answer at Stanford is 675 team passing yards leader.
6′2″ · 195 lb · Manhattan Beach, CA · Peddie School
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #121 of 137 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
How he plays
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
Interception rate: 94th percentile.
The full scouting readThe numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 310 pass yds, 1 TD, 16 rush yds, vs Hawai'i
Swing playSwung Michigan from 19% to 49% to win.Michigan at Indiana · 20-15
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Senior quarterback for Stanford. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
Buzz vs Tape
The wider college football conversation reads him warmer than his own fans do — a gap of 21.5 points in belief.
Davis Warren looks so much better than I could've expected. God bless Larry Ellison for getting Bryce Underwood to go to Michigan (and definitely not for anything else)
Also worth knowing:
“Imagine if Michigan had a QB like Davis Warren”
Davis Warren
Davis Warren arrives at Stanford with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
TEAM PASSING YARDS LEADER
675
Team leader in passing yards (675).
AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-09-22
His career
Career arc
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2022–2026
3 coachesPlayed under 3 different head coaches: David Shaw, Troy Taylor, and Tavita Pritchard. Multi-era developmental context.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Stanford
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 37-27vs Hawai'i | 22/34 | 310 | 1 | 0 | 9.1 | 79.7 | Season-high 310 yds |
| Wk 1 | L 6-45vs Miami | 21/41 | 214 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 | 73.1 | Season-high 310 yds |
| Wk 3 | L 7-35@ Duke | 18/32 | 151 | 1 | 0 | 4.7 | 29.6 | |
| Total | 61/107 | 675 | 2 | 0 | 6.3 | 60.8 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 37–27
vs Hawai'i
310 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 79.7 · 16 rush yds (5 car)
With A. Flintoft — 43.2 yards per punt · 6 punts · 2 inside the 20 · J. Hall — 2 rec · 81 yds
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 1: +151 passing yards, +1 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: interception rate (94th percentile). Strength: interceptions (93rd percentile). Concern: success rate (6th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
6.1190 of 126 QBsSack rate
4.5%61 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (61 of 126), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (90 of 126).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 57.0% completion on 107 attempts · 17% completion on 12 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 86 dropbacks49Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
43.0%29th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected pointsYards per attempt weight 56%
6.8341th pct of FBS QBssacks excludedSack rate weight 21% (penalty)
3.5%83th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot seeOpponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (26 of 112 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 262 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 |
| Road1g | 151 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 225 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Tavita Pritchard
Pass share
57.4%
112 pass / 83 run
Plays / game
65.0
3 games
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Play style
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
CFB Index positional classification
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Steven Bench’s 2014 season.
Matches Steven on
Differs from Steven on
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Chase Garbers’s path through California.
Jaylon Tolbert
Matches Chase on
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Zach Gibson's senior season at Georgia Tech (2022).
Matches Zach on
Differs from Zach on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #66 this season.