Deuce Bailey is holding a job somebody else made famous at Coastal Carolina — and the ledger already reads 826 team passing yards leader.
6′1″ · 190 lb · Bowling Green, KY · Bowling Green HS
How he plays
Pushes it downfield on every look.
Interception rate: 94th percentile.
The full scouting readThe numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 373 pass yds, 3 TD, 19 rush yds, at West Virginia
Swing playSwung Missouri State from 58% to 84% to win.Missouri State at Middle Tennessee · 22-20
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Redshirt freshman quarterback for Coastal Carolina. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
Deuce Bailey
Deuce Bailey steps into Tad Hudson's shoes — the gap is the story.
TEAM PASSING YARDS LEADER
826
Team leader in passing yards (826).
Coastal Carolina fans keep putting his case on trial, week to week.
Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.
AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-09-22
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
FRESHMAN HONORS
Freshman recognition (2025)
1 mention(s)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2025–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Jeremiah Johnson → Ryan Beard. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Coastal Carolina
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Coastal Carolina | 49 | 88 | 55.7% | 826 | 9.4 | 8 | 0 | 164.5 | 46 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Missouri State | 23 | 47 | 48.9% | 335 | 7.1 | 2 | 0 | 122.9 | 45 | -- | -- |
| Career | 72 | 135 | 53.3% | 1,161 | 8.6 | 10 | 0 | 150.0 | 46 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Coastal Carolina | 26 | 82 | 3.2 | 0 | -- |
| 2025 | Missouri State | 27 | 81 | 3.0 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 53 | 163 | 3.1 | 1 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 24-31@ West Virginia | 21/37 | 373 | 3 | 0 | 10.1 | — | Season-high 373 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 45-7vs Fordham | 12/25 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 8.1 | 30.0 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | L 14-22@ Delaware | 16/26 | 250 | 2 | 0 | 9.6 | 53.9 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Total | 49/88 | 826 | 8 | 0 | 9.3 | 42.0 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 45–7
vs Fordham
203 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 30.0 · 21 rush yds (4 car)
Dominant 38-point win at home against Fordham.
With R. Podesta — 39.2 yards per punt · 5 punts · 3 inside the 20 · R. Washington — 12 rush yds (2 car)
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +250 passing yards, +2 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: interception rate (94th percentile). Strength: explosive rate (80th percentile). Concern: sack rate (6th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
9.6624 of 126 QBsSack rate
9.3%116 of 126 QBsSacked on 9.3% of dropbacks (116 of 126) — and still 24 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 55.7% completion on 88 attempts · 35% completion on 17 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 88 dropbacks46Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
39.1%8th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -2.9% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
7.7375th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.8 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
9.3%5th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.2% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (9 of 97 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home1g | 203 | 3.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 312 | 2.5 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 275 | 2.7 | 9.3 | 0.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ryan Beard
Pass share
47.4%
91 pass / 101 run
Plays / game
64.0
3 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2026
On the two-deep and pushing for snaps.
Play style
Pushes it downfield on every look.
CFB Index positional classification
The No. 1,738 recruit in the country is starting at quarterback in the Sun Belt as a redshirt freshman.
Player DNA
Elite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Dru DeShields’s 2025 season.
Matches Dru on
Differs from Dru on
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Bryson Daily’s path through Army.
Matches Bryson on
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Mason Heintschel's sophomore season at Pittsburgh (2026).
Matches Mason on
Differs from Mason on
Honors CUSA Freshman of the Week (10/8/25) at Missouri State 2025 (Freshman Year) - Missouri State Completed 23-of-47 passes for 335 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 81 yards and a touchdown in three appearances Played in three consecutive games from Sept. 20-Oct. 8, including his…