J.J. McCarthy: QB · Michigan · #9.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
J.J. McCarthy
Picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Third year in the Michigan quarterback room. On tape: 335 passing yards against Purdue, Week 10, 2023.
Play style
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
68.4% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 42.9% conversion-per-dropback — 30.8% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
1 of the team's 40 inside-the-5 carries (2.5%).
No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.
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Game log · Week-by-week
2023 season · 15 games
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| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 30-3vs East Carolina | 26/30 | 280 | 3 | 0 | 9.3 | 94.3 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 35-7vs UNLV | 22/25 | 278 | 2 | 0 | 11.1 | 96.1 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 3 | W 31-6vs Bowling Green | 8/13 | 143 | 2 | 3 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 3 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 4 | W 31-7vs Rutgers | 15/21 | 214 | 1 | 0 | 10.2 | 96.8 | |
| Wk 5 | W 45-7@ Nebraska | 12/16 | 156 | 2 | 0 | 9.8 | 99.2 | |
| Wk 6 | W 52-10@ Minnesota | 14/20 | 219 | 1 | 0 | 11.0 | 92.0 | |
| Wk 7 | W 52-7vs Indiana | 14/17 | 222 | 3 | 0 | 13.1 | 84.4 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 8 | W 49-0@ Michigan State | 21/27 | 287 | 4 | 0 | 10.6 | 97.7 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 10 | W 41-13vs Purdue | 24/37 | 335 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 72.1 | Season-high 335 yds |
| Wk 11 | W 24-15@ No. 9 Penn State | 7/8 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 | 96.2 | |
| Wk 12 | W 31-24@ Maryland | 12/23 | 141 | 0 | 1 | 6.1 | 53.7 | |
| Wk 13 | W 30-24vs No. 2 Ohio State | 16/20 | 148 | 1 | 0 | 7.4 | 94.5 | |
| Wk 14 | W 26-0vs No. 18 Iowa | 22/30 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 4.9 | 69.9 | |
 Bowl | W 27-20vs No. 5 Alabama | 17/27 | 221 | 3 | 0 | 8.2 | 91.9 | |
 Bowl | W 34-13vs No. 2 Washington | 10/18 | 140 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | — | |
| Total | 240/332 | 2991 | 22 | 4 | 9.0 | — |
Bowl · 2023
W 27-20
vs Alabama · neutral site
The plays that mattered most
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 325 passing plays (236 completions) against the box score's 332 attempts (240 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.
Adjusted ANY/A
8.8321 of 212 QBsSack rate
5.4%100 of 212 QBsRarely sacked (100 of 212 QBs) and still 21 of 212 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 72.3% completion on 332 attempts · 47 deep completions averaging 27.4 yds.
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline
+87
percentile points better on third down or later
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
3 seasons under Jim Harbaugh — 40-3 over that span.
Splits · Per-game
2023 season · 15 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 231 | 1.7 | 10.2 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 173 | 1.4 | 9.0 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-79g | 208 | 1.9 | 10.2 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 186 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 0.2 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jim Harbaugh
Pass share
39.6%
360 pass / 550 run
Plays / game
60.7
15 games
Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.
Player standing · 2023
Our Heisman model had this player inside its top 25 in 2023.
Recognition
Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score
Former five-star. Now #13 at the position.
Career, closed
Gone at #10 overall.
How it ended
Three seasons at Michigan, 6,226 passing yards — drafted at #10 overall by the Minnesota Vikings.
A stat line in 39 games over three seasons.
Coaching lineage · 2021–2023
1 coachPlayed every college season under Jim Harbaugh.
Next stop · NFL
Minnesota VikingsEntering 3rd NFL season
Minnesota VikingsEntering 3rd NFL season
