CFB Zeitgeist Score
73
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 99th percentile.
Jaden Nixon
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
554 RUSH YDS · 7 RUSH TD · 71 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to UCF for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · UCF
Returning around him
- 31% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 1 UCF player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -4 net (31 in / 35 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
UCF · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #43 · 2026 recruiting class #79
RB · UCF · BIG 12
Jaden Nixon
- 4
- #5
- 5-10 | 185 lb
- Irving, TX
Heisman Heat
#3753
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2021–2025+354%
Up 354% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8578 | No. 969 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8578
#969 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jaden Nixon
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=3
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jaden Nixon
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 12g
554Rush yards
71Carries
7Rush TDs
Per game
46.2Rush yards
6Carries
1Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
600.2Rush yards
77Carries
8Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 554): needs 196/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 554): needs 446/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 554): needs 946/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 7): needs 3/game over remaining 1.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 7): needs 8/game over remaining 1.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 7): needs 13/game over remaining 1.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jaden Nixon is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 554 rushing yards, 17 catches, and 438 return yards for UCF. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Efficient runner | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
71 68th
YDS
554 81st
YPC
7.8 96th
TD
7 92nd
Receiving
REC
17 80th
YDS
88 66th
YPR
5.2 28th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 17-10vs Jacksonville State | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 2 | W 68-7vs North Carolina A&T | 4 | 156 | 39.0 | 2 | 87 | Season-high 156 yds |
| Wk 4 | W 34-9vs North Carolina | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Wk 5 | L 20-34@ Kansas State | 5 | 66 | 13.2 | 1 | 54 | |
| Wk 6 | L 20-27vs Kansas | 7 | 60 | 8.6 | 0 | 46 | |
| Wk 7 | L 11-20@ Cincinnati | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 8 | W 45-13vs West Virginia | 7 | 116 | 16.6 | 2 | 83 | |
| Wk 10 | L 3-30@ Baylor | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 11 | L 27-30vs Houston | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 1 | 15 | |
| Wk 12 | L 9-48@ Texas Tech | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 13 | W 17-14vs Oklahoma State | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 14 | L 21-41@ BYU | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Total | 71 | 554 | 8.2 | 7 | 87 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Oklahoma State11-2HC: Mike Gundy · Run-leaning, fast tempo
2022Oklahoma State7-6HC: Mike Gundy · Balanced, fast tempo
2023Oklahoma State10-4HC: Mike Gundy · Pass-leaning
2025UCF5-7HC: Scott Frost · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCF | 71 | 554 | 7.8 | 7 | -- |
| 2023 | Oklahoma State | 50 | 197 | 3.9 | 1 | -- |
| 2022 | Oklahoma State | 46 | 181 | 3.9 | 0 | -- |
| 2021 | Oklahoma State | 14 | 122 | 8.7 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 181 | 1,054 | 5.8 | 9 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCF | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Oklahoma State | 12 | 123 | 10.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2022 | Oklahoma State | 21 | 189 | 9.0 | 3 | -- |
| 2021 | Oklahoma State | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 51 | 403 | 7.9 | 4 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 554 | #138/735 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 7 | #62/739 | 92nd pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 7.8 | #33/735 | 96th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 17 | #111/552 | 80th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 88 | #190/548 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.26 | #15/362 | 96th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 73 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 11.6% | #267/738 | 64th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 87 | #11/733 | 99th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 71 | #240/739 | 68th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 27 | #142/540 | 74th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 5.2 | #395/548 | 28th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 438 | #6/200 | 98th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 23.1 | #41/199 | 80th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 19 | #7/206 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return TD | 1 | #3/14 | 86th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 18.9% | #274/738 | 63rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 13.9% | #249/738 | 66th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 12.2% | #292/738 | 61st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 10.5% | #323/738 | 56th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 10.3% | #190/738 | 74th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 8.9% | #246/738 | 67th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 5.4% | #138/738 | 81st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/256 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 60.9 | 10.4 | 0.9 |
| Road5g | 25.6 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 60.8 | 11.7 | 1.0 |
| Losses7g | 35.7 | 5.7 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 48.2 | 10.2 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 44.2 | 6.2 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
73Solid starter
Elite: yards / carry (98th). Strength: long run (96th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.26Elite (≥p90) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jaden NixonUCFAlex TeczaNavy· 77% simKejon OwensFlorida International· 73% simJoe JacksonKansas State· 72% sim
Yards / carry
Long run
Fumbles lost
Rush TDs
Receptions
Rush yards
Rec yards
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete Back
Threatens defenses in every dimension — rushing, receiving, third-down.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Nate Noel’s 2022 season.
Nate Noel
62%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Jai'Den Thomas
All-Mountain West
59%
#3
Stacy Sneed
54%
#4
Isaac Brown
52%
#5
Sutton Smith
All-AACNFL Rd 6
52%
Matches Nate on
Weight
Receiving share
Differs from Nate on
Rush TD rate (higher)
Yards / carry (higher)
Class year (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Jordan Simmons's graduate season at Akron (2024).
Jordan Simmons
30%match
#2
Noah Whittington
29%
#3
Nate Noel
All-Sun Belt
27%
#4
Kejon Owens
26%
#5
Eli Sanders
25%
Matches Jordan on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Differs from Jordan on
Rush TD rate (higher)
Weight (lower)
Yards / reception (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Scott Frost
Pass share
51.7%
403 pass / 377 run
Plays / game
65.0
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.5%
324 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Gus Malzahn
UCF
2022
Gus Malzahn
UCF
2023
Gus Malzahn
UCF
2025era →
Scott Frost
UCF
Coaching transition mid-career: Gus Malzahn → Scott Frost. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownIrving, TX
Height5'10"
Weight185 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamUCF
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2024)
All-MAC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-MAC | all_conference | Western Michigan | MAC | RB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Western Michigan | RB4 | #3753 | #4024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2023 | Oklahoma State | RB4 | #732 | #685 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2022 | Oklahoma State | RB4 | #875 | #908 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2021 | Oklahoma State | RB4 | #684 | #499 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCF | Big 12 | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 5-10 | 185 lb | Irving, TX |
| 2024 | Western Michigan | Mid-American | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 5-10 | 185 lb | Irving, TX |
| 2023 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 5-10 | 185 lb | Irving, TX |
| 2022 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 5-10 | 185 lb | Irving, TX |
| 2021 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 5-10 | 185 lb | Irving, TX |