Luke Weaver packed up and started over at San José State, and the new tape already reads No.123 3★, national recruit.
6′3″ · 210 lb · Manteca, CA · East Union HS
The numbers
passing yards · 2026
8 TD · 1 INT · 7.5 per attempt
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 234 pass yds, 2 TD, 42 rush yds, at USC
The play that turned itSwung Hawai'i from 33% to 99% to win.California at Hawai'i · 35-31
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
4 quarterback for San José State. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
How he plays
Extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
EPA / dropback: 88th percentile.
The full scouting readBuzz vs Tape
His own fans read him warmer than the wider college football conversation does — a gap of 33.6 points in belief.
Our WR room looks like they've reloaded, and it seems like our running game has improved. I think The EMU game will determine whether or not our defense is still ass like last year. In Luke Weaver we trust!
Also worth knowing:
Luke Weaver
Luke Weaver arrives at San José State with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
3★ · NATIONAL RECRUIT
No.123
recruiting national rank
AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-09-15
His career
Career arc
Badges
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to San José State
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: epa / dropback (88th percentile). Strength: sack rate (81st percentile). Concern: fumbles lost (9th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
8.3323 of 75 QBsSack rate
1.9%18 of 75 QBsRarely sacked (18 of 75 QBs) and still 23 of 75 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 62.3% completion on 106 attempts · 47% completion on 19 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home1g | 238 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 275 | 2.5 | 7.7 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 263 | 2.7 | 7.5 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ken Niumatalolo
Pass share
51.0%
106 pass / 102 run
Plays / game
69.3
3 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | San José State | 66 | 105 | 62.9% | 788 | 7.5 | 8 | 1 | 149.1 | 55 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Hawai'i | 63 | 105 | 60.0% | 628 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 123.4 | 26 | -- | -- |
| Career | 129 | 210 | 61.4% | 1,416 | 6.7 | 14 | 4 | 136.3 | 40 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | San José State | 28 | 96 | 3.4 | 1 | -- |
| 2025 | Hawai'i | 27 | 73 | 2.7 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 55 | 169 | 3.1 | 1 | -- |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 30–20
vs Cal Poly
238 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 26.0 · 44 rush yds (10 car)
With J. Bates — 163 rush yds (27 car) · D. McKenzie — 28 AVG · 54 LONG · 4 NO
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 26-42@ USC | 21/32 | 234 | 2 | 0 | 7.3 | 94.8 | Season-high 316 yds |
| Wk 1 | W 27-21@ Eastern Michigan | 23/39 | 316 | 3 | 1 | 8.1 | 59.4 | Season-high 316 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 30-20vs Cal Poly | 22/34 | 238 | 3 | 0 | 7.0 | 26.0 | 3 TD passes |
| Total | 66/105 | 788 | 8 | 1 | 7.5 | 60.1 |
Play style
Extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
CFB Index positional classification
Player DNA
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Dalton Sturm’s 2016 season.
Matches Dalton on
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Derek Robertson’s path through Monmouth.
Matches Derek on
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Dan Ellington's sophomore season at Georgia State (2019).
Matches Dan on
Differs from Dan on
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #78 this season.