Marcel Reed ran and gunned Texas A&M to its first College Football Playoff. Then, before the bracket even started, he announced he was coming back. He's one cleaner season from the Heisman race -- if he can stop giving the ball away.
6′1″ · 185 lb · Nashville, TN · Montgomery Bell Academy
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 439 yds · 3 TD -- top 1% passing yards game. -- Best game: 163 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, vs Arizona State
The play that turned itSwung Texas A&M from 23% to 92% to win.Texas A&M at USC · 35-31
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Marcel Reed ran and gunned Texas A&M to its first College Football Playoff. Then, before the bracket even started, he announced he was coming back. He's one cleaner season from the Heisman race -- if he can stop giving the ball away.
How he plays
Extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
Sack rate: 68th percentile.
The full scouting readAura™ · Him Watch
-16aura tax
96th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=200
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
The Miami Hurricanes beat Texas A&M 10-3 in the College Football Playoff thanks to a dominant performance in the trenches! The Hurricanes sacked Aggies QB Marcel Reed 7 times, with future first round edge rusher Rueben Bain accounting for…
Also worth knowing:
“On3: Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed calls out Texas”
In 2025 he threw for 3,169 yards and 25 touchdowns, ran for 493 more and six scores, and carried the Aggies to an 11-0 start and their first Playoff berth. He's a true dual-threat -- 6-1, 185, a problem with his legs and a gunslinger with his arm -- and the same aggression that produced the highlights produced 12 interceptions. He bet on himself, announcing his return before the Playoff began. The forward stakes are the tightrope every aggressive young quarterback walks: cut the giveaways without dulling the edge that makes him dangerous. Do that on a roster built for a Playoff run, and he's in the Heisman conversation. For Reed, 2026 is the year the boom-or-bust quarterback decides which one he is.
His career
He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.
Reed plays fast and fearless, and the data is a portrait of aggression. As a runner he's genuinely elite -- our play-by-play grades his rushing success rate in the 88th percentile and his EPA per carry in the 86th. As a passer he pushes the ball harder than almost anyone: a 97th-percentile average depth of target, which fuels both an 75th-percentile EPA per dropback and the interceptions (a 45th-percentile, i.e. fairly high, pick rate). The one number that lags is accuracy -- a 38th-percentile completion rate, the cost of all that downfield ambition. He's a shot-taker who runs like a back, the kind of quarterback who wins games in chunks and loses them in turnovers. The development is the trade: keep the aggression, sharpen the touch.
Written by our staff.
Career arc
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Elijah Robinson → Mike Elko. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 50-0vs Missouri State | 21/30 | 233 | 2 | 0 | 7.8 | — | |
| Wk 2 | W 48-20vs Arizona State | 15/25 | 163 | 3 | 1 | 6.5 | 44.0 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | L 21-31vs Kentucky | 26/49 | 236 | 1 | 2 | 4.8 | — | Season-high 236 yds |
| Total | 62/104 | 632 | 6 | 3 | 6.4 | 44.0 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 48–20
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +236 passing yards, +1 passing TD, +2 interceptions.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Concern: explosive rate (2nd percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
5.48101 of 126 QBsSack rate
3.7%45 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (45 of 126), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (101 of 126).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 59.6% completion on 104 attempts · 28% completion on 18 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 90 dropbacks47Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
47.8%67th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected pointsYards per attempt weight 56%
6.2922th pct of FBS QBssacks excludedSack rate weight 21% (penalty)
4.4%70th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot seeOpponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (18 of 108 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 211 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 211 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 1.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Elko
Pass share
49.3%
112 pass / 115 run
Plays / game
75.7
3 games
Scheme: Balanced, fast tempo.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market1.3%full market ›
In the mix for All-SEC
Based on 2025: #3 of 16 SEC QBs
49% estimated, 95% confidence interval 43–54%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Reed plays fast and fearless, and the data is a portrait of aggression. As a runner he's genuinely elite -- our play-by-play grades his rushing success rate in the 88th percentile and his EPA per carry in the 86th. As a passer he pushes the ball harder than almost anyone: a 97th-percentile average depth of target, which fuels both an 75th-percentile EPA per dropback and the interceptions (a 45th-percentile, i.e. fairly high, pick rate). The one number that lags is accuracy -- a 38th-percentile completion rate, the cost of all that downfield ambition. He's a shot-taker who runs like a back, the kind of quarterback who wins games in chunks and loses them in turnovers. The development is the trade: keep the aggression, sharpen the touch.
Our classifier reads him the same way: extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
Returning starter at quarterback for a 11-2 Texas A&M team that went -2 in the portal.
Player DNA
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Maty Mauk’s 2015 season.
Matches Maty on
Differs from Maty on
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Malik Cunningham’s path through Louisville.
Matches Malik on
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Kaidon Salter's senior season at Liberty (2024).
Matches Kaidon on
Differs from Kaidon on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#14 in market ▼ from #11 · 6 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #7 — top-10 conversation.
SEC Freshman of the Week (9/16/24) SEC Freshman of the Week (10/28/24) Shaun Alexander Player of the Week (10/29/24) Davey O'Brien National QB of the Week (10/29/24) 2024 (FRESHMAN): Started eight of 11 games he appeared in, including three straight wins in his first three career starts ...…