CFB Zeitgeist Score
46
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 63rd percentile.
Trevion Williams
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
20 TACKLES · 1 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Mississippi State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive line · Mississippi State
Returning around him
- 42% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 2 Mississippi State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -13 net (27 in / 40 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Mississippi State · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #24 · 2026 recruiting class #28
DL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · SEC
Trevion Williams
- 3
- #23
- 6-4 | 295 lb
- Crystal Springs, MS
Heisman Heat
#14492
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR03 · Backup
Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Mississippi State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#21 in market ▼ from #18 · 6 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8374 | No. 51 recruit | JUCO | Mississippi State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Mississippi State
Composite
0.8374
#51 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Trevion Williams
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Trevion Williams
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 11g
20Tackles
1.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Projected (13g)
24Tackles
1.8Tackles for loss
1.2Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 20): needs 30/game over remaining 2.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 20): needs 40/game over remaining 2.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 1): needs 2.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 1): needs 4.5/game over remaining 2.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Trevion Williams is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Mississippi State's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 1.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
20 60th
SOLO
4 34th
TFL
1.5 64th
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
2 66th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
1 43rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17@ Southern Miss | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 24-20vs Arizona State | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 4 tackles |
| Wk 3 | W 63-0vs Alcorn State | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 38-10vs Northern Illinois | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | L 34-41vs Tennessee | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | L 21-23@ Florida | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 38-45vs Texas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 38-35@ Arkansas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | L 21-41vs Georgia | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 12 | L 27-49@ Missouri | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | L 19-38vs Ole Miss | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 20 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | — | 1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Mississippi State9-4HC: Mike Leach · Pass-heavy
2023Mississippi State5-7HC: Greg Knox · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 20 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Mississippi State | 6 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Mississippi State | 1 | -- | 0.5 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 27 | 5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 20 | #1998/4942 | 60th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 1.5 | #1771/4972 | 64th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 1.0 | #872/4972 | 82nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 1 | #1241/2184 | 43rd pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 2 | #647/1878 | 66th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 4 | #3005/4584 | 34th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Road4g | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses6g | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort
46Mid-pack
Concern: solo tackles (4th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DL · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Trevion WilliamsMississippi StateBlake FletcherAir Force· 51% simTJ DotteryOle Miss· 49% simTreylin PayneTexas State· 49% sim
QB hurries
Sacks
Passes defended
Tackles for loss
Tackles
Solo tackles
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Two-Gap Base
Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.
IDL
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Oliver Billotte’s 2023 season.
Oliver Billotte
92%match
#2
Devon Robinson
91%
#3
Judge Culpepper
91%
#4
Raishein Thomas
90%
#5
Jaden Williams
90%
Matches Oliver on
Weight
Height
TFL rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Jaden Williams's senior season at Kentucky (2025).
Jaden Williams
90%match
#2
Keith Randolph Jr.
All-Big Ten
86%
#3
Trevon McAlpine
84%
#4
Sean FitzSimmons
78%
#5
James Smith
76%
Matches Jaden on
Class year
Height
Sack rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Lebby
Pass share
41.8%
390 pass / 543 run
Plays / game
71.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
12.7%
308 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
3 coaches2022
Mike Leach
Mississippi State
2023era →
Greg Knox
Mississippi State
2025era →
Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State
Played under 3 different head coaches: Mike Leach, Greg Knox, and Jeff Lebby. Multi-era developmental context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCrystal Springs, MS
Height6'4"
Weight295 lb
Class3
PositionDL
Jersey23
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMississippi State
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mississippi State | DL3 | #14492 | #14635 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
| 2023 | Mississippi State | DL3 | #11683 | #11798 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
| 2022 | Mississippi State | DL3 | #9915 | #9552 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | SEC | DL | 3 | No. 23 | 6-4 | 295 lb | Crystal Springs, MS |
| 2024 | Mississippi State | SEC | DL | 3 | No. 23 | 6-4 | 295 lb | Crystal Springs, MS |
| 2023 | Mississippi State | SEC | DL | 3 | No. 23 | 6-4 | 295 lb | Crystal Springs, MS |
| 2022 | Mississippi State | SEC | DL | 3 | No. 23 | 6-4 | 295 lb | Crystal Springs, MS |