Will Rogers

Junior quarterback for Mississippi State. 2021: 4,739 passing yards, 36 TD, 9 INT.

QB · Mississippi State · Jr. · #2

6′2″ · 210 lb · Brandon, MS

CFB Index 70 · #21 of 126 QBsHigh confidenceMississippi State 2021 alumnus

The story

3 quarterback for Mississippi State. 2021: 4,739 passing yards, 36 TD, 9 INT.

The record fills in as he plays.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Two seasons at Mississippi State, 6,715 passing yards — his college career is complete.

Career arc

Recruit

—

No recruit profile

CFB

College

Mississippi State

2020–2021

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

2021 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2 seasons under Mike Leach, all pass-heavy, fast tempo offenses — 11-13 over that span.

2020Mississippi State4-7HC: Mike Leach · Pass-heavy, fast tempo

2021Mississippi State7-6HC: Mike Leach · Pass-heavy, fast tempo

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

70Quality starter #21 of 126?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: success rate (93rd percentile). Strength: interception rate (86th percentile). Concern: explosive rate (21st percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#13 / 167 · 93rd pct

53.0%

Interception rate#24 / 167 · 86th pct

1.1%

Sack rate#37 / 167 · 78th pct

4.7%

EPA / dropback#64 / 167 · 62nd pct

0.31

Explosive rate#133 / 167 · 21st pct

7.3%

Box-score rates (8)

Completion %#2 / 169 · 99th pct

73.9%

Pass yards#3 / 169 · 99th pct

4739

Pass TDs#7 / 169 · 96th pct

Fumbles lost#23 / 159 · 68th pct

Yards / att#112 / 169 · 33rd pct

6.9

Interceptions#124 / 169 · 23rd pct

Rush TDs#133 / 169 · 11th pct

Rush yards#162 / 169 · 4th pct

-97

Season trend

EPA / dropback— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Success rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Explosive rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Sack rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Interception rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

489/663 (73.8%) · 36 TD · 9 INT

663 of 683 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

6.8687 of 204 QBs

Sack rate

4.5%49 of 204 QBs

Rarely sacked (49 of 204 QBs) and still 87 of 204 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

64%of completions

314 comp5.0 yds avg14 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

26%of completions

126 comp13.5 yds avg4 TD

Deep

20+ yds

10%of completions

49 comp28.1 yds avg10 TD

Overall 73.8% completion on 663 attempts · 49 deep completions averaging 28.1 yds.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2021 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	344	2.1	7.4	0.7
Road5g	409	4.0	7.2	0.6

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	360	2.3	6.4	0.8
Weeks 8+6g	381	3.5	8.2	0.5

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Jeff Lebby

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2021

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

our read surprisingly productive for a quarterback with no award recognition yet — top-1% completion rate, top-2% overall passing production.2021 profile

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

70 · #21 of 126 QBs

Career stats

Season	Team
2021	Mississippi State	505	683	73.9%	4,739	6.9	36	9	147.0	64	--	--
2020	Mississippi State	239	346	69.1%	1,976	5.7	11	7	123.5	23	--	--
Career		744	1,029	72.3%	6,715	6.5	47	16	139.1	50	--	--

Season	Team
2021	Mississippi State	62	-97	-1.6	0	--
2020	Mississippi State	30	-41	-1.4	1	--
Career		92	-138	-1.5	1	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 5 · 2021

W 26–22

at Texas A&M

408 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 93.1 · 5 rush yds (4 car)

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 4 on the road.

With A. Trafford — 40 AVG · 2 IN 20 · 47 LONG · M. Polk — 13 rec · 126 yds · 2 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 7 · Alabama · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA -7.92Will Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Battle return for 40 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
Week 8 · Vanderbilt · 3&6 · Q4 · EPA +6.24Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 59 yds for a TD
Week 12 · Tennessee State · 3&4 · Q2 · EPA +5.77Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 56 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)
Week 7 · Alabama · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA -4.30Will Rogers pass intercepted Jordan Battle return for 29 yds to the Alab 29
Week 4 · LSU · 2&5 · Q1 · EPA -4.26Will Rogers pass intercepted Cordale Flott return for no gain to the LSU 11
Week 3 · Memphis · 3&8 · Q2 · EPA +4.14Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 41 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST down
Week 7 · Alabama · 2&22 · Q2 · EPA +3.92Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 43 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down
Week 9 · Kentucky · 3&11 · Q3 · EPA +3.85Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
Week 12 · Tennessee State · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.84Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 50 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)
Week 10 · Arkansas · 2&8 · Q3 · EPA +3.69Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 42 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2021 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 35-34vs Louisiana Tech	39/47	370	3	1	7.9	40.8	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 24-10vs NC State	33/49	294	2	0	6.0	77.7	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 3	L 29-31@ Memphis	50/67	419	3	0	6.3	64.7	Season-high 419 yds
Wk 4	L 25-28vs LSU	47/62	371	3	1	6.0	75.2	3 TD passes
Wk 5	W 26-22@ Texas A&M	46/59	408	3	0	6.9	93.1	3 TD passes
Wk 7	L 9-49vs Alabama	35/55	300	0	3	5.5	44.4	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 8	W 45-6@ Vanderbilt	41/57	384	4	2	6.7	69.4	4 TD passes
Wk 9	W 31-17vs Kentucky	36/39	344	1	0	8.8	87.8
Wk 10	L 28-31@ Arkansas	36/48	417	4	1	8.7	87.3	4 TD passes
Wk 11	W 43-34@ Auburn	44/55	415	6	0	7.5	90.7	6 TD passes
Wk 12	W 55-10vs Tennessee State	28/34	391	5	0	11.5	94.2	5 TD passes
Wk 13	L 21-31vs Ole Miss	38/58	336	1	0	5.8	54.3
Total		473/630	4449	35	8	7.3	73.3

How he plays

Play style

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

58.6%Completion %

24.6%Conversion/dropback

55.9%Land short of sticks

1INTs

58.6% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 24.6% conversion-per-dropback — 55.9% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design