Next game
vs Hope
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
Bahlke Field · series 3-1
Alma 23% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Alma
2-4Michigan · Bahlke Field · 4,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 55-7 vs Olivet
Our model gave Alma 64% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Calvin 20%, Hope 23%
Win out 3% · expect 2.1 of 4 more wins
Alma's chance to win each game left, from our model: Hope 23%, Albion 84%, Kalamazoo 83%, Calvin 20%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Hope · our model 23% Alma
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Alma · 2026 schedule and results2-4Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 63%.Our rank entering each game: #450 to #488
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #450 | #599 | — | @Wisconsin Eau Claire | L 15-23 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #453 | #468 | — | Wisconsin Oshkosh | L 21-23 | 0-2 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #455 | #509 | — | @Baldwin Wallace | L 17-42 | 0-3 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #460 | #473 | — | Adrian | W 27-24 | 1-3 | 1-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #467 | #501 | — | @Trine | L 9-33 | 1-4 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #488 | #617 | — | Olivet | W 55-7 | 2-4 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #485 | #455 | Hope | 1 pm ET23% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #485 | #596 | @Albion | 1 pm ET84% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Kalamazoo | 1 pm ET83% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Calvin | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Alma, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Alma: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Alma has won two of its last five.
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
Range of outcomes · Alma · 2026
Range of outcomes · Alma · 2026Alma’s most likely regular season is 4-6. 95% of outcomes land from 3-7 to 5-5.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 2%; 3 wins 18%; 4 wins 52%; 5 wins 25%; 6 wins 3%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base4-8Mid-table finish.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-4
Game feel49rock fightscombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 8 in the Michigan
Heart rate1-2white-knucklein one-score games (3 of 6)2nd most one-score games of 8 in the Michigan
Margin-1.3competitiveavg scoring margin5th best margin of 8 in the Michigan
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Michigan teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Scots of Alma College in central Michigan — back-to-back MIAA champions in 2022 and 2023 who reached the Division III quarterfinals, carrying tartan-clad Scottish heritage into a resurgent program.
Standard GapA program that surged to consecutive league titles and a quarterfinal…
Alma won back-to-back MIAA titles and reached the D3 quarterfinals — and the national crowd still treats the Scots like a small Michigan college that got lucky.
Game day
The experience
The Scots of Alma College in central Michigan — back-to-back MIAA champions in 2022 and 2023 who reached the Division III quarterfinals, carrying tartan-clad Scottish heritage into a resurgent program.
Playoff path
Alma sits 4th in the Michigan Conference and 143rd of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Michigan · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hope | 3-0 | 6-0 | 73.5 |
| 2 | Calvin | 3-0 | 6-0 | 70.1 |
| 3 | Trine | 3-0 | 5-1 | 62.9 |
| 4 | Alma | 2-1 | 2-4 | 46.7 |
| 5 | Kalamazoo | 1-2 | 2-4 | 44.7 |
| 6 | Olivet | 0-3 | 3-3 | 51.3 |
| 7 | Adrian | 0-3 | 2-4 | 47.7 |
| 8 | Albion | 0-3 | 0-6 | 37.3 |
46.7 CFB Zeitgeist#143 of 245 D357.8 strength of schedule
Win the Michigan Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-4
Signature win 55-7 over Olivet; toughest day 17-42 against Baldwin Wallace.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site