Next game
vs Trine
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
Docking Stadium · series 1-3
Adrian College 35% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Adrian College
2-4Michigan · Docking Stadium · 3,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 22-24 at Hope
Our model gave Adrian College 11% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Trine 35%
Win out 25% · expect 3.0 of 4 more wins
Adrian College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Trine 35%, Olivet 84%, Albion 90%, Kalamazoo 93%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Trine · our model 35% Adrian College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Adrian College · 2026 schedule and results2-4Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 63%.Our rank entering each game: #467 to #489
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #467 | #511 | — | Ohio Northern | W 17-10 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #469 | #642 | — | @Thiel | W 48-7 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #468 | #497 | — | @Mount St Joseph | L 24-35 | 2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #473 | #460 | — | @Alma | L 24-27 | 2-2 | 0-1 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #475 | #482 | — | Calvin | L 12-17 | 2-3 | 0-2 | |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #489 | #454 | — | @Hope | L 22-24 | 2-4 | 0-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #480 | #471 | Trine | 1 pm ET35% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #480 | #619 | @Olivet | 12 pm ET84% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Albion | 1 pm ET90% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Kalamazoo | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Adrian College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Adrian College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Adrian College has won one of its last five.
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last four.
Streak L4Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
Range of outcomes · Adrian College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Adrian College · 2026Adrian College’s most likely regular season is 5-5. 98% of outcomes land from 4-6 to 6-4.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 2%; 4 wins 18%; 5 wins 55%; 6 wins 25%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base4-8Mid-table finish.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-4
Game feel44rock fightscombined pts / game8th highest-scoring of 8 in the Michigan
Heart rate1-3white-knucklein one-score games (4 of 6)1st most one-score games of 8 in the Michigan
Margin+4.5competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 8 in the Michigan
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Michigan teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Adrian is the historic Bulldog program with 18 conference titles, now building back under Joe Palka after two strong seasons—the Bulldogs insist that MIAA relevance is not nostalgia but the near future.
Title DroughtSince 2014 · 12 yrs
Fans here believe the chip is internal. Adrian's identity is built on 18 conference titles, and the program wants to add to that number.
Game day
The experience
Adrian is the historic Bulldog program with 18 conference titles, now building back under Joe Palka after two strong seasons—the Bulldogs insist that MIAA relevance is not nostalgia but the near future.
Playoff path
Adrian College sits 7th in the Michigan Conference and 137th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Michigan · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hope | 3-0 | 6-0 | 73.5 |
| 2 | Calvin | 3-0 | 6-0 | 70.1 |
| 3 | Trine | 3-0 | 5-1 | 62.9 |
| 4 | Alma | 2-1 | 2-4 | 46.7 |
| 5 | Kalamazoo | 1-2 | 2-4 | 44.7 |
| 6 | Olivet | 0-3 | 3-3 | 51.3 |
| 7 | Adrian | 0-3 | 2-4 | 47.7 |
| 8 | Albion | 0-3 | 0-6 | 37.3 |
47.7 CFB Zeitgeist#137 of 245 D356.4 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the Michigan Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-4
Signature win 48-7 over Thiel; toughest day 24-35 against Mount St Joseph.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site