Next game
at Heidelberg
Sat Oct 24 · 1:30 pm ET
Hoernemann Stadium · series 2-2, won the last 2
Ohio Northern 23% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Ohio Northern
4-2Ohio · Dial-Roberson Stadium · 3,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 62-24 vs Otterbein
Our model gave Ohio Northern 91% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Heidelberg 23%, Mount Union 39%
Win out 5% · expect 2.2 of 4 more wins
Ohio Northern's chance to win each game left, from our model: Heidelberg 23%, Mount Union 39%, Bluffton 81%, Capital 74%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Heidelberg · our model 23% Ohio Northern
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Ohio Northern · 2026 schedule and results4-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 41%.Our rank entering each game: #511 to #520
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #511 | #467 | — | @Adrian | L 10-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #509 | #514 | — | @Marietta | W 20-13 | 1-1 | 1-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #508 | #576 | — | Muskingum | W 41-13 | 2-1 | 2-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #503 | #627 | — | Wilmington (OH) | W 42-0 | 3-1 | 3-0 | |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #505 | #477 | — | @Baldwin Wallace | L 10-38 | 3-2 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #520 | #641 | — | Otterbein | W 62-24 | 4-2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #510 | #488 | @Heidelberg | 1:30 pm ET23% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #512 | #462 | Mount Union | 1:30 pm ET39% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Bluffton | 12 pm ET81% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Capital | 1:30 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Ohio Northern, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Ohio Northern: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Ohio Northern has won four of its last five.
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
Range of outcomes · Ohio Northern · 2026
Range of outcomes · Ohio Northern · 2026Ohio Northern’s most likely regular season is 6-4. 92% of outcomes land from 5-5 to 7-3.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 2%; 5 wins 19%; 6 wins 44%; 7 wins 29%; 8 wins 5%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel48rock fightscombined pts / game9th highest-scoring of 10 in the Ohio
Heart rate1-1some dramain one-score games (2 of 6)4th most one-score games of 10 in the Ohio
Margin+13.3competitiveavg scoring margin5th best margin of 10 in the Ohio
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Ohio teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Ohio Northern is the OAC Cinderella story — picked fifth in the preseason polls, the Polar Bears went 8-2 with a 7-1 OAC record and won the Coach of the Year under Andy Fries.
Title DroughtSince 1900 · 126 yrs
Fans here believe the entire OAC preseason establishment doubted the Polar Bears. Ohio Northern climbed over them all.
Game day
The experience
Ohio Northern is the OAC Cinderella story — picked fifth in the preseason polls, the Polar Bears went 8-2 with a 7-1 OAC record and won the Coach of the Year under Andy Fries.
Playoff path
Ohio Northern sits 2nd in the Ohio Conference and 89th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Ohio · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baldwin Wallace | 4-0 | 6-0 | 72.4 |
| 2 | Ohio Northern | 4-1 | 4-2 | 55.4 |
| 3 | Heidelberg | 3-1 | 5-1 | 66.2 |
| 4 | Mount Union | 3-1 | 4-2 | 60.4 |
| 5 | Marietta | 2-3 | 3-3 | 52.2 |
| 6 | Capital | 2-3 | 3-3 | 50.9 |
| 7 | Otterbein | 1-3 | 2-4 | 45.3 |
| 8 | Wilmington (OH) | 1-3 | 2-4 | 42.6 |
55.4 CFB Zeitgeist#89 of 245 D349.0 strength of schedule
Win the Ohio Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 42-0 over Wilmington (OH); toughest day 10-38 against Baldwin Wallace.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site