Next game
vs Anderson (IN)
Sat Oct 24 · 1:30 pm ET
Bernlohr Stadium
Capital 93% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Capital
3-3Ohio · Bernlohr Stadium · 3,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 23-45 vs Mount Union
Our model gave Capital 30% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Heidelberg 11%, Ohio Northern 26%
Win out 2% · expect 2.0 of 4 more wins
Capital's chance to win each game left, from our model: Anderson (IN) 93%, Otterbein 74%, Heidelberg 11%, Ohio Northern 26%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Anderson (IN) · our model 93% Capital
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Capital · 2026 schedule and results3-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44%.Our rank entering each game: #607 to #575
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #607 | #588 | — | @Waynesburg | W 35-12 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #603 | #602 | — | Wilmington (OH) | W 44-19 | 2-0 | 1-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #592 | #518 | — | @Marietta | L 10-32 | 2-1 | 1-1 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #595 | #493 | — | @Baldwin Wallace | L 10-49 | 2-2 | 1-2 | |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #586 | #598 | — | @Muskingum | W 36-25 | 3-2 | 2-2 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #575 | #467 | — | Mount Union | L 23-45 | 3-3 | 2-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #579 | #667 | Anderson (IN) | 1:30 pm ET93% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #579 | #638 | @Otterbein | 12 pm ET74% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Heidelberg | 1:30 pm ET11% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Ohio Northern | 1:30 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Capital, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Capital: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Capital has won two of its last five.
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
Range of outcomes · Capital · 2026
Range of outcomes · Capital · 2026Capital’s most likely regular season is 5-5. 97% of outcomes land from 4-6 to 6-4.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 1%; 4 wins 20%; 5 wins 55%; 6 wins 22%; 7 wins 2%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor4-8Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base6-6Mid-table finish.
Ceiling9-3Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-3
Game feel57even gamescombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 10 in the Ohio
Heart rate0-0rarely closein one-score games (0 of 6)9th most one-score games of 10 in the Ohio
Margin-4.0competitiveavg scoring margin7th best margin of 10 in the Ohio
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Ohio teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Capital is the OAC rebuilder trying to snap a 15-year winning drought — 1-9 in 2024, but Head Coach Brian Foos is betting 2025 and beyond are the turnaround years.
Standard GapA small Columbus university that fell to 1-9 in 2024 vs the belief…
Fans here believe no chip. Capital is climbing out of a hole of its own making and focused on the next step.
Game day
The experience
Capital is the OAC rebuilder trying to snap a 15-year winning drought — 1-9 in 2024, but Head Coach Brian Foos is betting 2025 and beyond are the turnaround years.
Playoff path
Capital sits 6th in the Ohio Conference and 118th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Ohio · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baldwin Wallace | 4-0 | 6-0 | 72.4 |
| 2 | Ohio Northern | 4-1 | 4-2 | 55.4 |
| 3 | Heidelberg | 3-1 | 5-1 | 66.2 |
| 4 | Mount Union | 3-1 | 4-2 | 60.4 |
| 5 | Marietta | 2-3 | 3-3 | 52.2 |
| 6 | Capital | 2-3 | 3-3 | 50.9 |
| 7 | Otterbein | 1-3 | 2-4 | 45.3 |
| 8 | Wilmington (OH) | 1-3 | 2-4 | 42.6 |
50.9 CFB Zeitgeist#118 of 245 D350.1 strength of schedule
Win the Ohio Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 3-3
Signature win 44-19 over Wilmington (OH); toughest day 10-49 against Baldwin Wallace.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site