Next game
at Mount Union
Sat Oct 24 · 1:30 pm ET
Mount Union Stadium · series 0-4, lost the last 4
Wilmington (OH) 2% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Wilmington (OH)
2-4Ohio · Wiliams Stadium (OH) · 3,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 42-35 vs Muskingum
Our model gave Wilmington (OH) 63% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Marietta 8%
Win out <1% · expect 0.1 of 4 more wins
Wilmington (OH)'s chance to win each game left, from our model: Mount Union 2%, Baldwin Wallace 1%, Marietta 8%, Heidelberg 3%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Mount Union · our model 2% Wilmington (OH)
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Wilmington (OH) · 2026 schedule and results2-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44%.Our rank entering each game: #603 to #620
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #603 | #552 | — | @Wooster | W 22-19 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #602 | #603 | — | @Capital | L 19-44 | 1-1 | 0-1 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #607 | #653 | — | Otterbein | L 14-35 | 1-2 | 0-2 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #627 | #503 | — | @Ohio Northern | L 0-42 | 1-3 | 0-3 | |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #627 | #458 | — | Hanover | L 14-21 | 1-4 | 0-3 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #620 | #608 | — | Muskingum | W 42-35 | 2-4 | 1-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #616 | #462 | @Mount Union | 1:30 pm ET2% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #616 | #454 | Baldwin Wallace | 1:30 pm ET1% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Marietta | 1:30 pm ET8% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Heidelberg | 1:30 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Wilmington (OH), through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Wilmington (OH): a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Wilmington (OH) has won one of its last five.
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7
Range of outcomes · Wilmington (OH) · 2026
Range of outcomes · Wilmington (OH) · 2026Wilmington (OH)’s most likely regular season is 2-8. 100% of outcomes land from 2-8 to 3-7.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 87%; 3 wins 12%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base4-8Mid-table finish.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-4
Game feel51even gamescombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 10 in the Ohio
Heart rate2-1white-knucklein one-score games (3 of 6)2nd most one-score games of 10 in the Ohio
Margin-14.2competitiveavg scoring margin8th best margin of 10 in the Ohio
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Ohio teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Fightin' Quakers of Wilmington, a small Quaker-founded Ohio college that has played football at Townsend Field since 1900 and now grinds through the Ohio Athletic Conference.
Standard GapA small faith-rooted college where a winning season is an event…
Wilmington plays in the OAC, where a small Quaker college spends every fall trying to matter in a league the Mount Union dynasty has dominated for decades.
Game day
The experience
The Fightin' Quakers of Wilmington, a small Quaker-founded Ohio college that has played football at Townsend Field since 1900 and now grinds through the Ohio Athletic Conference.
Playoff path
Wilmington (OH) sits 8th in the Ohio Conference and 174th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Ohio · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baldwin Wallace | 4-0 | 6-0 | 72.4 |
| 2 | Ohio Northern | 4-1 | 4-2 | 55.4 |
| 3 | Heidelberg | 3-1 | 5-1 | 66.2 |
| 4 | Mount Union | 3-1 | 4-2 | 60.4 |
| 5 | Marietta | 2-3 | 3-3 | 52.2 |
| 6 | Capital | 2-3 | 3-3 | 50.9 |
| 7 | Otterbein | 1-3 | 2-4 | 45.3 |
| 8 | Wilmington (OH) | 1-3 | 2-4 | 42.6 |
42.6 CFB Zeitgeist#174 of 245 D348.8 strength of schedule
Win the Ohio Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-4
Signature win 42-35 over Muskingum; toughest day 0-42 against Ohio Northern.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site