Next game
at Muskingum
Sat Oct 24 · 1:30 pm ET
Sherman Field at McConagha Stadium · series 3-1, last win 2024
Marietta 90% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Marietta
3-3Ohio · Don Drumm Stadium · 5,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 7-31 vs Baldwin Wallace
Our model gave Marietta 23% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Heidelberg 17%, Mount St Joseph 20%
Win out 3% · expect 2.2 of 4 more wins
Marietta's chance to win each game left, from our model: Muskingum 90%, Heidelberg 17%, Wilmington (OH) 92%, Mount St Joseph 20%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Muskingum · our model 90% Marietta
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Marietta · 2026 schedule and results3-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 58%.Our rank entering each game: #512 to #515
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #512 | #492 | — | Westminster (PA) | W 34-24 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #514 | #509 | — | Ohio Northern | L 13-20 | 1-1 | 0-1 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #518 | #592 | — | Capital | W 32-10 | 2-1 | 1-1 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #519 | #644 | — | @Otterbein | W 42-7 | 3-1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #515 | #466 | — | @Mount Union | L 21-27 | 3-2 | 2-2 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #515 | #468 | — | Baldwin Wallace | L 7-31 | 3-3 | 2-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #524 | #609 | @Muskingum | 1:30 pm ET90% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #525 | #487 | @Heidelberg | 2 pm ET17% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Wilmington (OH) | 1:30 pm ET92% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Mount St Joseph | 1:30 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Marietta, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Marietta: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Marietta has won two of its last five.
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Streak L2Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
Range of outcomes · Marietta · 2026
Range of outcomes · Marietta · 2026Marietta’s most likely regular season is 5-5. 97% of outcomes land from 4-6 to 6-4.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 11%; 5 wins 60%; 6 wins 25%; 7 wins 3%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor4-8Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base6-6Mid-table finish.
Ceiling9-3Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-3
Game feel45rock fightscombined pts / game10th highest-scoring of 10 in the Ohio
Heart rate0-2some dramain one-score games (2 of 6)3rd most one-score games of 10 in the Ohio
Margin+5.0competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 10 in the Ohio
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Ohio teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Marietta is the OAC competitor placing its faith in new coach Tom Hinkle — the Pioneers went 5-5 in 2025 under Tom Kaufman, then promoted Hinkle in December 2025 to lead the next chapter.
Title DroughtSince 1900 · 126 yrs
Mount Union and Baldwin Wallace are not blue bloods, but they function like gatekeepers. Marietta has the talent to compete, but the narrative always puts them behind.
Game day
The experience
Marietta is the OAC competitor placing its faith in new coach Tom Hinkle — the Pioneers went 5-5 in 2025 under Tom Kaufman, then promoted Hinkle in December 2025 to lead the next chapter.
Playoff path
Marietta sits 5th in the Ohio Conference and 105th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Ohio · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baldwin Wallace | 4-0 | 6-0 | 72.4 |
| 2 | Ohio Northern | 4-1 | 4-2 | 55.4 |
| 3 | Heidelberg | 3-1 | 5-1 | 66.2 |
| 4 | Mount Union | 3-1 | 4-2 | 60.4 |
| 5 | Marietta | 2-3 | 3-3 | 52.2 |
| 6 | Capital | 2-3 | 3-3 | 50.9 |
| 7 | Otterbein | 1-3 | 2-4 | 45.3 |
| 8 | Wilmington (OH) | 1-3 | 2-4 | 42.6 |
52.2 CFB Zeitgeist#105 of 245 D355.1 strength of schedule
Win the Ohio Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 3-3
Signature win 42-7 over Otterbein; toughest day 7-31 against Baldwin Wallace.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site