Next game
vs Manchester
Sat Oct 24 · 1:30 pm ET
Schueler Field · series 4-0, won the last 4
Mount St. Joseph 99% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Mount St. Joseph
5-1Heartland · Schueler Field · 2,400 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 54-23 vs Bluffton
Our model gave Mount St. Joseph 87% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 80%
Win out 70% · expect 3.7 of 4 more wins
Mount St. Joseph's chance to win each game left, from our model: Manchester 99%, Anderson (IN) 99%, Rose Hulman 88%, Marietta 80%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Manchester · our model 99% Mount St. Joseph
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Mount St. Joseph · 2026 schedule and results5-1Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 38%.Our rank entering each game: #513 to #473
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #513 | #571 | — | Muskingum | W 34-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #515 | #466 | — | @Aurora | W 49-21 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #497 | #468 | — | Adrian | W 35-24 | 3-0 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #491 | #451 | — | @Hanover | L 38-40 | 3-1 | 0-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #485 | #572 | — | @Franklin | W 42-36 | 4-1 | 1-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #473 | #601 | — | Bluffton | W 54-23 | 5-1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #444 | #668 | Manchester | 1:30 pm ET99% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #444 | #667 | @Anderson (IN) | 1:30 pm ET99% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Rose Hulman | 1:30 pm ET88% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Marietta | 1:30 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Mount St. Joseph, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Mount St. Joseph: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Mount St. Joseph has won four of its last five.
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
Range of outcomes · Mount St. Joseph · 2026
Range of outcomes · Mount St. Joseph · 2026Mount St. Joseph’s most likely regular season is 9-1. 97% of outcomes land from 8-2 to 9-1.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 3%; 8 wins 28%; 9 wins 70%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-1
Game feel66shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 7 in the Heartland
Heart rate1-1some dramain one-score games (2 of 6)4th most one-score games of 7 in the Heartland
Margin+18.0comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 7 in the Heartland
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Heartland teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Mount St. Joseph is the three-time HCAC champion dethroned in 2025 — the Lions went 20-0 in conference play over three years before Hanover broke the streak, and Coach Tyler Hopperton is hungry to reclaim the crown.
Title DroughtSince 2024 · 2 yrs
Fans here believe hanover just proved Mount St. Joseph was beatable. The Lions are hungry to reclaim their throne and show the loss was an anomaly, not a trend.
Game day
The experience
Mount St. Joseph is the three-time HCAC champion dethroned in 2025 — the Lions went 20-0 in conference play over three years before Hanover broke the streak, and Coach Tyler Hopperton is hungry to reclaim the crown.
Playoff path
Mount St. Joseph sits 3rd in the Heartland Conference and 44th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — on the at-large bubble — the conference title is the surer route.
Heartland · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hanover | 2-0 | 5-1 | 65.5 |
| 2 | Rose Hulman | 2-0 | 4-2 | 54.3 |
| 3 | Mount St Joseph | 2-1 | 5-1 | 62.4 |
| 4 | Bluffton | 2-1 | 2-4 | 45.7 |
| 5 | Franklin | 1-2 | 2-4 | 47.5 |
| 6 | Anderson (IN) | 0-3 | 1-5 | 35.6 |
| 7 | Manchester | 0-2 | 1-5 | 35.1 |
62.4 CFB Zeitgeist#44 of 245 D348.9 strength of schedule
Win the Heartland Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-1
Signature win 34-0 over Muskingum; toughest day 38-40 against Hanover.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site