Next game
vs Franklin
Sat Oct 24 · 1:30 pm ET
Alumni Field (OH) · series 1-3, last win 2024
Bluffton 49% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Bluffton
2-4Heartland · Alumni Field (OH) · 2,600 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 23-54 at Mount St Joseph
Our model gave Bluffton 13% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Franklin 49%
Win out <1% · expect 1.2 of 4 more wins
Bluffton's chance to win each game left, from our model: Franklin 49%, Hanover 10%, Ohio Northern 19%, Rose Hulman 38%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Franklin · our model 49% Bluffton
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Bluffton · 2026 schedule and results2-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 58%.Our rank entering each game: #628 to #601
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #628 | #542 | — | @Ohio Wesleyan | L 9-68 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #626 | — | — | Madonna | L 18-27 | 0-2 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #638 | #542 | — | Trine | L 7-59 | 0-3 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #656 | #664 | — | Anderson (IN) | W 36-12 | 1-3 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #640 | #667 | — | @Manchester | W 37-13 | 2-3 | 2-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #601 | #473 | — | @Mount St Joseph | L 23-54 | 2-4 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #622 | #567 | Franklin | 1:30 pm ET49% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #622 | #465 | @Hanover | 1:30 pm ET10% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Ohio Northern | 12 pm ET19% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Rose Hulman | 1:30 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Bluffton, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Bluffton: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Bluffton has won two of its last five.
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
Range of outcomes · Bluffton · 2026
Range of outcomes · Bluffton · 2026Bluffton’s most likely regular season is 3-7. 94% of outcomes land from 2-8 to 4-6.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 23%; 3 wins 44%; 4 wins 27%; 5 wins 6%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base4-8Mid-table finish.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-4
Game feel60shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 7 in the Heartland
Heart rate0-0rarely closein one-score games (0 of 6)7th most one-score games of 7 in the Heartland
Margin-17.2outgunnedavg scoring margin6th best margin of 7 in the Heartland
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Heartland teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Bluffton is the HCAC program in full rebuild mode — 5-5 in 2025 with a new coaching staff under Chris Hedden, betting on fresh leadership to break through.
Title DroughtSince 1900 · 126 yrs
Fans here believe no chip. Bluffton is starting over and focused on the next step.
Game day
The experience
Bluffton is the HCAC program in full rebuild mode — 5-5 in 2025 with a new coaching staff under Chris Hedden, betting on fresh leadership to break through.
Playoff path
Bluffton sits 4th in the Heartland Conference and 154th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Heartland · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hanover | 2-0 | 5-1 | 65.5 |
| 2 | Rose Hulman | 2-0 | 4-2 | 54.3 |
| 3 | Mount St Joseph | 2-1 | 5-1 | 62.4 |
| 4 | Bluffton | 2-1 | 2-4 | 45.7 |
| 5 | Franklin | 1-2 | 2-4 | 47.5 |
| 6 | Anderson (IN) | 0-3 | 1-5 | 35.6 |
| 7 | Manchester | 0-2 | 1-5 | 35.1 |
45.7 CFB Zeitgeist#154 of 245 D349.0 strength of schedule
Win the Heartland Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-4
Signature win 36-12 over Anderson (IN); toughest day 9-68 against Ohio Wesleyan.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site