Next game
vs Wilmington (OH)
Sat Oct 24 · 1:30 pm ET
Mount Union Stadium · series 4-0, won the last 4
University of Mount Union 98% to win · our ratings after 6 games
University of Mount Union
4-2Ohio · Mount Union Stadium · 5,600 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 45-23 at Capital
Our model gave University of Mount Union 70% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Baldwin Wallace 26%, Ohio Northern 61%
Win out 15% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
University of Mount Union's chance to win each game left, from our model: Wilmington (OH) 98%, Ohio Northern 61%, Baldwin Wallace 26%, Otterbein 97%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Wilmington (OH) · our model 98% University of Mount Union
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
University of Mount Union · 2026 schedule and results4-2Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 58%.Our rank entering each game: #463 to #467
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #463 | #457 | — | @Wheaton (IL) | L 23-24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #460 | #473 | — | Grove City | W 21-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #461 | #522 | — | Heidelberg | L 34-37 | 1-2 | 0-1 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #464 | #589 | — | @Muskingum | W 65-7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #466 | #515 | — | Marietta | W 27-21 | 3-2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #467 | #575 | — | @Capital | W 45-23 | 4-2 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #462 | #616 | Wilmington (OH) | 1:30 pm ET98% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #462 | #512 | @Ohio Northern | 1:30 pm ET61% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Baldwin Wallace | 1:30 pm ET26% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Otterbein | 1:30 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for University of Mount Union, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for University of Mount Union: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
University of Mount Union has won four of its last five.
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Streak W3Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
Range of outcomes · University of Mount Union · 2026
Range of outcomes · University of Mount Union · 2026University of Mount Union’s most likely regular season is 7-3. 99% of outcomes land from 6-4 to 8-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 1%; 6 wins 30%; 7 wins 54%; 8 wins 15%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel57even gamescombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 10 in the Ohio
Heart rate2-2white-knucklein one-score games (4 of 6)1st most one-score games of 10 in the Ohio
Margin+14.3competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 10 in the Ohio
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Ohio teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Raiders of Alliance, the defining Division III dynasty — a dozen-plus national titles, an NCAA-record 55-game winning streak, and more Stagg Bowl appearances than any program in the country.
Standard GapThe standard every other Division III program is measured against —…
Every year the rest of Division III lines up to declare the Mount Union dynasty finally over, and most years the Purple Raiders are still standing in Salem in December.
Game day
The experience
The Raiders of Alliance, the defining Division III dynasty — a dozen-plus national titles, an NCAA-record 55-game winning streak, and more Stagg Bowl appearances than any program in the country.
Playoff path
University of Mount Union sits 4th in the Ohio Conference and 56th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — on the at-large bubble — the conference title is the surer route.
Ohio · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baldwin Wallace | 4-0 | 6-0 | 72.4 |
| 2 | Ohio Northern | 4-1 | 4-2 | 55.4 |
| 3 | Heidelberg | 3-1 | 5-1 | 66.2 |
| 4 | Mount Union | 3-1 | 4-2 | 60.4 |
| 5 | Marietta | 2-3 | 3-3 | 52.2 |
| 6 | Capital | 2-3 | 3-3 | 50.9 |
| 7 | Otterbein | 1-3 | 2-4 | 45.3 |
| 8 | Wilmington (OH) | 1-3 | 2-4 | 42.6 |
60.4 CFB Zeitgeist#56 of 245 D356.1 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the Ohio Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 65-7 over Muskingum; toughest day 34-37 against Heidelberg.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site