Next game: at Notre Dame
Miami’s best edge on Notre Dame is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Miami offense against Notre Dame defense
Notre Dame offense against Miami defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.65 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 188 / 233 | 80.7 | 2425 #9 FBS | 10.4 | 25 #1 FBS | 1 | 202.7 | 91 | 87.8 | 11.7 | 3.7 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #1 right now. This week's matchup — QB Mensah extends plays on the move until something opens up. Eget is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage9.3% bottom 11th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %81.2% 100th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Darian Mensah's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | 3 | 15 / 20 | 75 | 204 | 10.2 | 3 | 1 | 200.2 | — | 61.5 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.24 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 71 | 495 | 7.0 | 7 #36 FBS | 52 | 4.3 | 20 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 71 carries and 6 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Mallory hits the crease and outruns the angle. Sheppard is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry7.1 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate9.9% 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javian Mallory's full player page | ||||||||||
| Power Back · +0.13 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 94 | 457 | 4.9 | 9 #16 FBS | 46 | 7.4 | 11.6 | |
Yards by week → Power backShort-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #20 right now. This week's matchup — RB Jr. wears you down at the goal line. Sheppard is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Rush TD rate9.6% 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception12.1 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mark Fletcher Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.05 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 0 | 20 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | — | 7 | 29 | 86 | 3.0 | 1 | 9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.91 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 73 | 1027 #3 FBS | 14.1 | 13 #2 FBS | 53 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Money-downRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Impact starter — 73 catches and 4 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too This week's matchup — WR Toney wins underneath on volume and route precision. Richardson is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume73 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)76.4 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Malachi Toney's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.87 EPA/play | 18 | 8 | 28 | 372 | 13.3 | 4 #70 FBS | 61 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 28 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Cooper Barkate's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.62 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 22 | 263 | 12.0 | 2 | 44 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Daylyn Upshaw's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.71 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 20 | 236 | 11.8 | 2 | 31 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 20 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Elija Lofton's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.93 EPA/play | 8 | 4 | 9 | 150 | 16.7 | 1 | 44 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +1.38 EPA/play | 12 | 7 | 8 | 142 | 17.8 | 1 | 47 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +1.71 EPA/play | 3 | 3 | 7 | 107 | 15.3 | 2 | 55 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +1.75 EPA/play | 13 | 3 | 6 | 78 | 13 | 1 | 21 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 8 | 8 | 29 | 17 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 7 #7 FBS | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 29 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.9% 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Marquise Lightfoot's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 5 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 25 tackles in 7 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 5-star, 2024 class View Justin Scott's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 18 | 8 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 2.5 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 19 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.1% 70th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Armondo Blount's full player page | |||||||
| 31 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 99 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 91 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1 | |
| 40 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 97 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 1 | 8 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 44 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 89th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mohamed Toure's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 9 | 8 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2021 class View Chase Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 17 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume20 bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ezekiel Marcelin Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| 11 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 25 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
Box safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 37 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume37 68th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View JJ Dunnigan's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | — | 8 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 | 3 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume25 bottom 31th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Omar Thornton's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 8 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Zechariah Poyser's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ethan O'Connor's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Bryce Fitzgerald's full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 6 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 8 | 7/8 | 87.5 | 43/43 | 64 | 50 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 7 | 19 | 856 | 45.1 | 54 | 5 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.38 EPA/play | 12 | 7 | 5 | 115 | 23 | 0 | 27 |
| +0.13 EPA/play | — | 7 | 5 | 89 | 17.8 | 0 | 22 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.91 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 6 | 69 | 11.5 | 0 | 22 |
| +1.38 EPA/play | 12 | 7 | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 | 42 |
Biggest plays from Miami’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Miami’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 7:49 · Miami down 4, takes the leadMark Fletcher Jr. runs 2 yards for a touchdownMiami at North Carolina, week 9Q4, 7:49 · Miami 31, North Carolina 28Go-ahead touchdown for Miami in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for Miami in the fourth quarterM.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Overtime, 0:00 · Miami down 7, ties itJavian Mallory runs 25 yards for a touchdownFlorida State at Miami, week 7Overtime, 0:00 · Miami 35, Florida State 35Overtime touchdown for MiamiOvertime touchdown for MiamiJ.Mallory rush left for 25 yards gain to the FSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 11:46 · North Carolina down 3, takes the leadDemon June runs 1 yard for a touchdownMiami at North Carolina, week 9Q4, 11:46 · North Carolina 28, Miami 24▲23%North Carolina’s chance to win, 29% to 52%▲23%North Carolina’s chance to win, 29% to 52%D.June rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 5:14 · Miami down 4, takes the leadMark Fletcher Jr. runs 2 yards for a touchdownMiami at North Carolina, week 9Q3, 5:14 · Miami 24, North Carolina 21▲22%Miami’s chance to win, 56% to 78%▲22%Miami’s chance to win, 56% to 78%M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC00 touchdown. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 10:51 · North Carolina down 3, takes the leadBilly Edwards finds Jordan Shipp for a 16-yard touchdownMiami at North Carolina, week 9Q3, 10:51 · North Carolina 21, Miami 17Go-ahead score for North Carolina in the third quarterGo-ahead score for North Carolina in the third quarterB.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to J.Shipp caught at MIA00, for 16 yards to the MIA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q3, 4:09 · Florida State breaks the tieAshton Daniels finds Tre Wisner for a 28-yard touchdownFlorida State at Miami, week 7Q3, 4:09 · Florida State 21, Miami 14Go-ahead score for Florida State in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Florida State in the third quarterNo Huddle A.Daniels pass complete short left to Q.Wisner caught at UM31, for 28 yards to the UM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Miami won all 8 games; the closest win was against Florida State, down to 15%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Miami during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Miami
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · MiamiMalachi Toney leads Miami with 1,027 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+14 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Miami fields an elite offense behind a strong defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Miami reads strongest in EPA / play (top 1%) and red-zone finish (top 1%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Miami sits at the 38th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Miami is worth +1.2 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom tenth of FBS, 7th percentile of 133 programs
71% at home, 61% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (34-14 home, 27-17 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Miami has beaten the number by −4.2 more at home than away over 100 games. That is inside the ±6.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Hard Rock Stadium seats 64,767 and has averaged 90% full (58,063, 31 games reported). Visitors face the 13th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 698 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads bottom tenth of fbs. 23% of the 2026 roster (25 of 110 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downC.J. Daniels is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogC.J. Daniels produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
- UnderdogKeelan Marion produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Garbage timeMark Fletcher Jr. does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
- Garbage timeGirard Pringle Jr. sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Garbage timeMalachi Toney does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory split the carries (94/164 vs 70/164) -- but Javian Mallory leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Malachi Toney (WR) and Elija Lofton (TE) split the targets (73/96 vs 23/96) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Miami actually scores
100th percentile quality, 0th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Miami’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 36th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 60th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Miami hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
99th percentile success on standard downs, 95th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Miami by half
1st-half offense ranks 99th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 86th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Miami’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.39; 99th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.15. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.60 raw vs. 0.11 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Miami’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Miami’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (76.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 225-play sample) — most aggressive underneath, 136 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Miami’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.0% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 216-play sample) — mid-pack, 105 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
86% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
6 of 7 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
17% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
4 interceptions of 23 disrupted passes (19 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
51 penalties committed, 61 drawn on opponents — netting a 29-yard field-position edge.
470 penalty yards committed vs. 499 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Miami
Most similar programs · MiamiReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Miami’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 76°, between 71° and 81° in about 7 in 10 games (29 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 62°, and 8 in 10 ran between 44° and 77° (48 of 50 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.