Next game: vs Michigan State
Michigan’s best edge on Michigan State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Michigan offense against Michigan State defense
Michigan State offense against Michigan defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.19 EPA/play | 19 | 7 | 72 / 124 | 58.1 | 924 | 7.5 | 5 | 6 | 124.3 | 53 | 56.6 | 5.4 | 6.1 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Starter — 124 pass attempts and 61 carries in 7 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Underwood extends plays on the move until something opens up. Raiola is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage33.0% 88th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate4.8% bottom 3th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint View Bryce Underwood's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.54 EPA/play | 14 | 4 | 49 / 68 | 72.1 | 503 | 7.4 | 2 | 1 | 141.0 | 48 | 76.8 | 6.1 | 8.1 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.23 EPA/play | 23 | 8 | 86 | 319 | 3.7 | 5 | 17 | 12.0 | 4.8 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — 86 carries and 5 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Marshall just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Davison is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Weight220 lb 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share5.5% bottom 17th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Marshall's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 87 | 314 | 3.6 | 2 | 41 | 18.1 | 4.8 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 87 carries and 8 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Hiter does a little of everything without one standout trait. Davison is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / carry4.1 bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.3% bottom 20th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like the ball security is the one real worry — 2.11 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | ||||||||||
| +0.30 EPA/play | 24 | 8 | 21 | 117 | 5.6 | 1 | 43 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.77 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 38 | 602 #41 FBS | 15.8 | 5 #39 FBS | 49 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 38 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Buchanan moves the chains on third down. Stewart is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception15.9 75th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume38 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View JJ Buchanan's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.41 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 39 | 360 | 9.2 | 1 | 34 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 39 catches and 1 carry in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Marsh wins underneath on volume and route precision. Stewart is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume39 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception9.7 bottom 15th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Andrew Marsh's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.85 EPA/play | 80 | 5 | 14 | 142 | 10.1 | 0 | 22 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 14 catches in 5 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Hogan Hansen's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.44 EPA/play | 42 | 5 | 7 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 13 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 17 | 8 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight328 lb 94th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Enow Etta's full player page | |||||||
| Speed Rusher | 90 | 6 | 20 | 8 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1 |
Speed rusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 20 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 19 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate17.5% 80th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View John Henry Daley's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 93 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.6% 56th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Benny Patterson's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 7 | 16 | 9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Trey Pierce's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 8 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 2.5 | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Dominic Nichols's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jonah Lea'Ea's full player page | |||||||
| Speed Rusher | 94 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 |
Speed rusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 19 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate18.2% 82th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nate Marshall's full player page | |||||||
| 41 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| 99 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 8 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 6 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 57 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Troy Bowles's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 44 | 7 | 43 | 21 | 22 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 43 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Nathaniel Staehling's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 7 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Chase Taylor's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 13 | 6 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Aisea Moa's full player page | |||||||||
| 12 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 8 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 50 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume50 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Chris Bracy's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | — | 8 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 36 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jyaire Hill's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2021 class View Rod Moore's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 3 | 8 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Smith Snowden's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 10 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2022 class View Zeke Berry's full player page | |||||||
| 25 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 99 | 8 | 6/10 | 60 | 20/20 | 38 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 33 | 8 | 37 | 1568 | 42.4 | 52 | 15 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.30 EPA/play | 24 | 8 | 8 | 170 | 21.3 | 0 | 36 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.12 EPA/play | 12 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 | 13 |
| Slot Technician · +0.41 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | 10 |
Biggest plays from Michigan’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Michigan’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:00 · Iowa down 5, takes the leadHank Brown finds Reece Vander Zee for a 16-yard touchdownIowa at Michigan, week 4Q4, 0:00 · Iowa 20, Michigan 190:00Go-ahead touchdown for Iowa with 0:00 left0:00Go-ahead touchdown for Iowa with 0:00 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Iowa with 0:00 leftReece Vander Zee 16 yd pass from Hank Brown▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q4, 0:00 · Michigan down 5, takes the leadBryce Underwood finds JJ Buchanan for a 47-yard touchdownWestern Michigan at Michigan, week 1Q4, 0:00 · Michigan 13, Western Michigan 120:00Go-ahead touchdown for Michigan with 0:00 left0:00Go-ahead touchdown for Michigan with 0:00 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Michigan with 0:00 leftJJ Buchanan 47 yd pass from Bryce Underwood▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q4, 1:50 · Michigan down 2Michigan fumbles and Western Michigan recoversWestern Michigan at Michigan, week 1Q4, 1:50 · Michigan 7, Western Michigan 9▼37%Michigan’s chance to win, 69% to 32%▼37%Michigan’s chance to win, 69% to 32%B.Underwood rush right for 13 yards gain to the UOM31 fumbled by B.Underwood at UOM33 forced by J.Franklin recovered by WMU K.Burley at UOM31, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football- Q2, 2:48 · Michigan breaks the tieNathaniel Staehling takes an interception 79 yards for a pick-sixMichigan at Minnesota, week 5Q2, 2:48 · Michigan 14, Minnesota 779Pick-six79Pick-sixPick-sixD.Lindsey pass intercepted by N.Staehling at MICH21 QB hurried by J.Hill N.Staehling return 79 yards to the MINN00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 7:53 · Michigan breaks the tieJordan Marshall runs 1 yard for a touchdownOklahoma at Michigan, week 2Q4, 7:53 · Michigan 17, Oklahoma 10Go-ahead touchdown for Michigan in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for Michigan in the fourth quarterJ.Marshall rush left for 1 yard gain to the OU 00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 1:44 · Iowa down 7, ties itIowa scores a touchdownIowa at Michigan, week 4Q1, 1:44 · Iowa 7, Michigan 799Kickoff return touchdown99Kickoff return touchdownKickoff return touchdownJ.Baggett kickoff 64 yards to the IOWA01 B.Jackson return 99 yards to the U-M00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Michigan lost to Iowa after being 90% to win; the closest win was against Western Michigan, down to 3%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Michigan during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Michigan
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · MichiganTroy Bowles leads Michigan with 57 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+13 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Michigan fields a limited run-heavy offense behind an elite defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Michigan reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 4%) and EPA allowed (top 4%); the crux lives in red-zone finish, where Michigan sits at the 7th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Michigan is worth +4.1 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 49th percentile of 133 programs
85% at home, 68% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (50-9 home, 26-12 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Michigan has beaten the number by −0.9 more at home than away over 97 games. That is inside the ±6.2 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Michigan Stadium seats 107,601 and has averaged 103% full (110,489, 35 games reported). Visitors cover a median 321 miles to get here since 2018 — 44th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 10% of the 2026 roster (11 of 115 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 59 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Garbage timeJordan Marshall does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
- Garbage timeJustice Haynes does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter split the carries (84/167 vs 83/167) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Andrew Marsh (WR) and Hogan Hansen (TE) split the targets (59/76 vs 17/76) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Hogan Hansen produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Michigan actually scores
25th percentile quality, 71st percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Michigan’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 39th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 38th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Michigan hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
10th percentile success on standard downs, 89th on passing downs — a 79-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Michigan by half
1st-half offense ranks 14th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 52nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Michigan’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.08; 31st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.24 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Michigan’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 164-play sample) — mid-pack, 97 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Michigan’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.0% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 171-play sample) — mid-pack, 36 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 25% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
2 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 2 of 6 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 28% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
7 interceptions of 25 disrupted passes (18 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 54 penalties committed vs. 40 drawn on opponents, 182 yards behind.
500 penalty yards committed vs. 318 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Michigan
Most similar programs · MichiganReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Michigan’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 41°, between 31° and 49° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 52°, and 8 in 10 ran between 37° and 74° (45 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.