Next game: at UConn
UConn’s best edge on North Carolina is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
North Carolina offense against UConn defense
UConn offense against North Carolina defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.31 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 149 / 235 | 63.4 | 1871 #33 FBS | 8.0 | 15 #27 FBS | 5 | 147.1 | 61 | 70.0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 235 pass attempts and 43 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Billy Edwards's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.06 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 60 | 296 | 4.9 | 0 | 25 | 16.7 | 15 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 60 carries and 5 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Hall just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Brown is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Weight230 lb 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Benjamin Hall's full player page | ||||||||||
| Power Back · +0.43 EPA/play | — | 8 | 72 | 289 | 4.0 | 8 #26 FBS | 25 | 11.3 | 7.0 | |
Yards by week → Power backShort-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone. 72 carries and 6 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB June wears you down at the goal line. Brown is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Rush TD rate11.1% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.7 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Demon June's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.23 EPA/play | 27 | 8 | 47 | 246 | 5.2 | 2 | 24 | — | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 47 carries and 9 catches in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB McGill just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Brown is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Weight220 lb 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception11.3 91th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaylen McGill's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.98 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 45 | 587 #49 FBS | 13.0 | 3 | 49 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Money-downRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 45 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too This week's matchup — WR Shipp wins underneath on volume and route precision. Richardson is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Reception volume45 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)51.2 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Shipp's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.44 EPA/play | 45 | 8 | 38 | 461 | 12.1 | 6 #23 FBS | 35 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Impact starter — 38 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Thurman shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Skinner is the one who creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Season receipt Yards / reception12.6 68th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume38 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jelani Thurman's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.24 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 17 | 219 | 12.9 | 1 | 26 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Trech Kekahuna's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.73 EPA/play | 84 | 7 | 9 | 156 | 17.3 | 2 | 75 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Easter shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Skinner is the one who creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Season receipt Yards / reception9.2 bottom 32th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate22.2% 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Shamar Easter's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.53 EPA/play | 14 | 5 | 8 | 113 | 14.1 | 0 | 28 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.00 EPA/play | 4 | 4 | 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 0 | 17 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 8 | 48 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — 48 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Leroy Jackson's full player pageTFL rate2.1% bottom 13th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 7 | 44 | 16 | 10 #20 FBS | 7 #7 FBS | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 44 tackles in 7 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.7% 75th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Xavier Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 7 | 28 | 13 | 6.5 | 2 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 28 tackles in 7 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Jaylen Harvey's full player pageTFL rate23.2% 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | — | 6 | 18 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 18 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Isaiah Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.7% bottom 26th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Melkart Abou-Jaoude's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.3% bottom 28th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nicco Maggio's full player page | |||||||
| 5 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 97 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 15 | 8 | 82 | 31 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 82 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume82 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.4% bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Derek Mcdonald's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 8 | 73 | 29 | 44 | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 73 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume73 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.1% bottom 24th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint View Peyton Seelmann's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 7 | 32 | 14 | 18 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jonathan Agumadu's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 54 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Timir Hickman-Collins's full player page | |||||||||
| 12 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 1 | 8 | 48 | 4 | 3 #16 FBS | 1 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — 48 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 53th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Gregory Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 18 | 8 | 40 | 6 #43 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — 40 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.0% 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaiden Patterson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2026 class View Kenton Dopson III's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 16 | 5 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.6% 78th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Coleman Bryson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Peyton Waters's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Kaleb Cost's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Javion Butts's full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 5 | 4/4 | 100 | 16/17 | 28 | 39 | |
| 92 | 8 | 4/7 | 57.1 | 8/8 | 20 | 33 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.24 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 15 |
Biggest plays from North Carolina’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in North Carolina’s games this season, whoever made them.
Overtime, 0:00 · Syracuse down 7, takes the leadSteven Angeli finds Calvin Russell III for a 4-yard touchdownSyracuse at North Carolina, week 8Overtime, 0:00 · Syracuse 31, North Carolina 30Overtime touchdown for SyracuseOvertime touchdown for SyracuseS.Angeli pass complete short middle to C.Russell III caught at UNC00, for 4 yards to the UNC00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN C.Russell III pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "" C.Russell III pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "". CALL UPHELD C.Russell III pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD▶Watch from this play
Q4, 12:36 · North Carolina down 3, takes the leadBilly Edwards finds Shamar Easter for a 75-yard touchdownNorth Carolina at Pittsburgh, week 6Q4, 12:36 · North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 177575-yard touchdown pass7575-yard touchdown pass75-yard touchdown passB.Edwards Jr. pass complete deep right to S.Easter caught at Pitt50, for 75 yards to the Pitt00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 7:49 · Miami down 4, takes the leadMark Fletcher Jr. runs 2 yards for a touchdownMiami at North Carolina, week 9Q4, 7:49 · Miami 31, North Carolina 28Go-ahead touchdown for Miami in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for Miami in the fourth quarterM.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Overtime, 0:00 · North Carolina breaks the tieBilly Edwards finds Demon June for a 3-yard touchdownSyracuse at North Carolina, week 8Overtime, 0:00 · North Carolina 30, Syracuse 23Overtime touchdown for North CarolinaOvertime touchdown for North CarolinaB.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to D.June caught at SYR01, for 3 yards to the SYR00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 11:46 · North Carolina down 3, takes the leadDemon June runs 1 yard for a touchdownMiami at North Carolina, week 9Q4, 11:46 · North Carolina 28, Miami 24▲23%North Carolina’s chance to win, 29% to 52%▲23%North Carolina’s chance to win, 29% to 52%D.June rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 5:14 · Miami down 4, takes the leadMark Fletcher Jr. runs 2 yards for a touchdownMiami at North Carolina, week 9Q3, 5:14 · Miami 24, North Carolina 21▲22%Miami’s chance to win, 56% to 78%▲22%Miami’s chance to win, 56% to 78%M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC00 touchdown. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
North Carolina lost to Syracuse after being 95% to win; the closest win was at Duke, down to 15%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave North Carolina during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · North Carolina
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · North CarolinaDerek Mcdonald leads North Carolina with 82 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
North Carolina fields a capable methodical, ball-control offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
North Carolina reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 4%) and success rate (top 23%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where North Carolina sits at the 16th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
North Carolina is worth +1.5 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 10th percentile of 133 programs
49% at home, 43% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (22-23 home, 19-25 away). Interval ±3.2.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, North Carolina has beaten the number by −1.0 more at home than away over 97 games. That is inside the ±5.5 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Kenan Stadium seats 50,500 and has averaged 96% full (48,577, 30 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 230 miles trip since 2018, the 13th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. 9% of the 2026 roster (9 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 54 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Garbage timeDavion Gause sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline: the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
- Money downJordan Shipp is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Money downKobe Paysour is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- CloserDavion Gause gets meaningfully more work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict.
- Deep threatJordan Shipp is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jordan Shipp (WR) and Jelani Thurman (TE) split the targets (46/100 vs 54/100) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How North Carolina actually scores
48th percentile quality, 45th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
North Carolina’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 19th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 18th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does North Carolina hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
89th percentile success on standard downs, 73rd on passing downs — a 16-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
North Carolina by half
1st-half offense ranks 74th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 17th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of North Carolina’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.16; 71st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.30 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How North Carolina’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), North Carolina’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.1% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 221-play sample) — mid-pack, 49 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), North Carolina’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.5% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 209-play sample) — mid-pack, 96 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 0% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~52% league rate.
0 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 15% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
5 interceptions of 33 disrupted passes (28 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Winning the penalty battle: 34 penalties committed vs. 48 drawn on opponents, a 159-yard edge.
259 penalty yards committed vs. 418 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · North Carolina
Most similar programs · North CarolinaReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 57°, between 47° and 67° in about 7 in 10 games (28 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 65°, and 8 in 10 ran between 44° and 79° (49 of 51 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.