Next game: vs Virginia Tech
SMU’s best edge on Virginia Tech is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
SMU offense against Virginia Tech defense
Virginia Tech offense against SMU defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.38 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 185 / 251 | 73.7 | 2433 #8 FBS | 9.7 | 21 #7 FBS | 5 | 178.8 | 80 | 80.5 | 9.5 | 4.6 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 251 pass attempts and 56 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. The rare part: he can push it deep — and he puts it wherever he wants, too This week's matchup — QB Jennings operates within the system without forcing anything. Lopez is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.8 96th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %74.0% 97th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kevin Jennings's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 12 / 14 | 85.7 | 117 | 8.4 | 2 | 0 | 203.1 | — | 46.3 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.23 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 135 | 697 #30 FBS | 5.2 | 9 #16 FBS | 40 | 14.5 | 13.7 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 135 carries and 15 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Raphael does a little of everything without one standout trait. Lawrence is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry5.4 55th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.1 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kendrick Raphael's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.03 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 36 | 111 | 3.1 | 0 | 8 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.72 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 44 | 523 #65 FBS | 11.9 | 3 | 33 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 44 catches and 1 carry in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Knight wins underneath on volume and route precision. Hernandez is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Reception volume44 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 77th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Yamir Knight's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.63 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 27 | 437 | 16.2 | 2 | 79 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 27 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Yannick Smith's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.63 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 27 | 389 | 14.4 | 1 | 50 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 27 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Jalen Cooper's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.77 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 16 | 258 | 16.1 | 3 | 64 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Hale moves the chains on third down. Hernandez is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 bottom 28th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate18.8% 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jalen Hale's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.72 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 23 | 213 | 9.3 | 4 #70 FBS | 30 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 23 catches and 3 carries in 8 games, about as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Pittman shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Johnson is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception9.6 bottom 36th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate17.4% 80th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Randy Pittman's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.51 EPA/play | — | 8 | 9 | 167 | 18.6 | 3 | 52 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon | 18 | 5 | 14 | 165 | 11.8 | 4 #70 FBS | 32 | |
Yards by week → Red-zone weaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. 14 catches in 5 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Ohrstrom is the first read once you cross the 20. Johnson is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt TD rate28.6% 98th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume14 bottom 38th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Plays like View Theo Melin Ohrstrom's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Rusher | 16 | 8 | 22 | 15 | 8 #50 FBS | 5.5 #29 FBS | 5 |
Speed rusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 19 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate25.0% 96th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Marques White's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 97 | 8 | 20 | 10 | 4.5 | 1 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 20 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Christian Davis's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 5 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.8% bottom 39th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 58 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.2 76th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aakil Washington's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 6 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.3% bottom 31th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tavion Atkinson's full player page | |||||||
| 94 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 93 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 55 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 52 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 23 | 8 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 41 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Alex Kilgore's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 28 | 7 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Brandon Booker's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 32 | 8 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.0% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume25 bottom 24th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamal Anderson's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 29 | 8 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume18 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brandon Miyazono's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 37 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate2.7% bottom 25th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jimmy Wyrick's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 5 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 33 tackles in 5 games. More tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Tyren Polley's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 6 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 31 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Sael Reyes's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 1 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 5.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume27 bottom 37th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jarvis Lee Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 4 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.5% bottom 35th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jayvon Thomas's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 8 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Marcellus Barnes Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 15 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ball Hawk | — | 5 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate30.0% 94th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View William Nettles's full player page | |||||||
| 11 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 6 | 5/6 | 83.3 | 18/19 | 33 | 45 | |
| 99 | 4 | 3/6 | 50 | 14/14 | 23 | 46 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 8 | 22 | 984 | 44.7 | 58 | 8 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.72 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 16 | 157 | 9.8 | 0 | 26 |
Biggest plays from SMU’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in SMU’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:17 · Syracuse down 10, takes the leadSteven Angeli finds Noah Meyers for a 2-yard touchdownSMU at Syracuse, week 9Q4, 0:17 · Syracuse 30, SMU 270:17Go-ahead touchdown for Syracuse with 0:17 left0:17Go-ahead touchdown for Syracuse with 0:17 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Syracuse with 0:17 leftNoah Meyers 2 yd pass from Steve Angeli (Tripp Woody Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q4, 12:37 · SMU breaks the tieKevin Jennings finds Yannick Smith for a 79-yard touchdownSMU at Florida State, week 1Q4, 12:37 · SMU 24, Florida State 177979-yard touchdown pass7979-yard touchdown pass79-yard touchdown passKevin Jennings pass complete to Yannick Smith for 79 yds for a TD (Nick Reed kick)▶Watch from this play
Q4, 10:02 · Louisville down 3, takes the leadKeyjuan Brown runs 53 yards for a touchdownSMU at Louisville, week 3Q4, 10:02 · Louisville 35, SMU 315353-yard touchdown run5353-yard touchdown run53-yard touchdown runK.Brown rush middle for 53 yards gain to the SMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 14:17 · Louisville down 3, takes the leadKeyjuan Brown runs 58 yards for a touchdownSMU at Louisville, week 3Q3, 14:17 · Louisville 21, SMU 175858-yard touchdown run5858-yard touchdown run58-yard touchdown runK.Brown rush middle for 58 yards gain to the SMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 11:33 · SMU down 4, takes the leadKendrick Raphael runs 12 yards for a touchdownSMU at Louisville, week 3Q4, 11:33 · SMU 31, Louisville 28▲22%SMU’s chance to win, 32% to 54%▲22%SMU’s chance to win, 32% to 54%K.Raphael rush middle for 12 yards gain to the LOU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 9:04 · SMU down 3, takes the leadKendrick Raphael runs 13 yards for a touchdownSMU at Syracuse, week 9Q4, 9:04 · SMU 27, Syracuse 20Go-ahead touchdown for SMU in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for SMU in the fourth quarterKendrick Raphael 13 yd Run (Kevin Jennings Pass to Derrick McFall for Two-Point Conversion)▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
SMU lost at Syracuse after being 95% to win; the closest win was against Missouri State, down to 23%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave SMU during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · SMU
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · SMUKevin Jennings leads SMU with 2,433 passing yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+17 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
SMU fields an elite offense behind a solid defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
SMU reads strongest in passing EPA (top 4%) and EPA / play (top 12%); the crux lives in red-zone defense, where SMU sits at the 25th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
SMU is worth +5.8 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 80th percentile of 133 programs
80% at home, 57% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (35-9 home, 30-23 away). Interval ±3.6.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, SMU has beaten the number by 6.2 points more at home than away over 104 games. That is outside the ±5.7 that many games can resolve, so this is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.
Gerald J. Ford Stadium seats 32,000 and has averaged 90% full (28,647, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 441 miles to get here since 2018 — 65th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 38% of the 2026 roster (39 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 52 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogRomello Brinson produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Money downYamir Knight is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogYamir Knight produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatRomello Brinson is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Garbage timeTJ Harden does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Kendrick Raphael and Dramekco Green split the carries (130/164 vs 34/164) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Yamir Knight (WR) and Randy Pittman (TE) split the targets (42/66 vs 24/66) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How SMU actually scores
81st percentile quality, 16th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
SMU’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 85th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 63rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does SMU hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
91st percentile success on standard downs, 82nd on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
SMU by half
1st-half offense ranks 82nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 77th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of SMU’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.27; 87th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.09. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.48 raw vs. 0.09 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), SMU’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (73.3% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 186-play sample) — most aggressive underneath, 135 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), SMU’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.2% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 162-play sample) — mid-pack, 65 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 57% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
4 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Deflections without payoff: 8% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
2 interceptions of 25 disrupted passes (23 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Roughly even on flags: 59 penalties committed vs. 61 drawn on opponents.
554 penalty yards committed vs. 529 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · SMU
Most similar programs · SMUReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
SMU’s breakout has happened before — and 3 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Usual during the game around Nov 6: 65°, between 58° and 75° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 69°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 85° (58 of 61 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.