Next game
at Lycoming
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
David Person Field · series 0-1
Western Connecticut St 17% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Western Connecticut St
2-3-1Landmark Conference · Westside Athletic Complex · 2,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 27-28 at Catholic
Our model gave Western Connecticut St 71% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Susquehanna 8%, Lycoming 17%, Wilkes 42%
Win out <1% · expect 1.5 of 4 more wins
Western Connecticut St's chance to win each game left, from our model: Lycoming 17%, Juniata 86%, Susquehanna 8%, Wilkes 42%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Lycoming · our model 17% Western Connecticut St
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Western Connecticut St · 2026 schedule and results2-3-1Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 29%.Our rank entering each game: #579 to #582
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #579 | #634 | — | @William Paterson | W 27-17 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #581 | #564 | — | Christopher Newport | L 7-37 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #590 | #626 | — | @Gettysburg | L 28-34 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #597 | #610 | — | Kean | T 0-0 | 1-2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #595 | #606 | — | Moravian | W 29-0 | 2-2-1 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #582 | #612 | — | @Catholic | L 27-28 | 2-3-1 | 1-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #588 | #508 | @Lycoming | 1 pm ET17% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #590 | #647 | Juniata | 1 pm ET86% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Susquehanna | 12 pm ET8% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Wilkes | 12 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Western Connecticut St, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Western Connecticut St: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Western Connecticut St has won one of its last five.
3-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 1-3Last 10 · 3-6
Range of outcomes · Western Connecticut St · 2026
Range of outcomes · Western Connecticut St · 2026Western Connecticut St’s most likely regular season is 3-6. 85% of outcomes land from 3-6 to 4-5.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 6%; 3 wins 45%; 4 wins 40%; 5 wins 9%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor3-9Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base5-7Mid-table finish.
Ceiling8-4Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 5 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-3
Game feel39rock fightscombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 7 in the Landmark Conference
Heart rate0-2white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 6)2nd most one-score games of 7 in the Landmark Conference
Margin+0.3competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 7 in the Landmark Conference
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Landmark Conference teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Wolves of Danbury, a public-university program that twice remade its own name — Indians to Colonials to Wolves in 2022 — and now plays Division III football in western Connecticut.
Standard GapA state-school program rebuilding an identity, where the brand changed…
Western Connecticut is the working-class state school in a region of brand-name privates — the Wolves get none of the attention and have to earn every yard.
Game day
The experience
The Wolves of Danbury, a public-university program that twice remade its own name, Indians to Colonials to Wolves in 2022, and now plays Division III football in western Connecticut.
Playoff path
Western Connecticut St sits 4th in the Landmark Conference and 169th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Landmark · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lycoming | 3-0 | 4-3 | 53.8 |
| 2 | Susquehanna | 2-0 | 5-1 | 64.0 |
| 3 | Wilkes | 1-1 | 3-3 | 50.2 |
| 4 | Western Connecticut State | 1-1 | 2-3 | 43.4 |
| 5 | Juniata | 1-2 | 2-5 | 39.4 |
| 6 | Catholic | 1-2 | 1-6 | 37.9 |
| 7 | Moravian | 0-3 | 1-6 | 37.7 |
43.4 CFB Zeitgeist#169 of 245 D344.4 strength of schedule
Win the Landmark Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-3
Signature win 29-0 over Moravian; toughest day 7-37 against Christopher Newport.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site