SYR Syracuse 1-2 13 PITT Pittsburgh 3-0 27 Final Pittsburgh beat Syracuse 27-13. Share this game
We had Pittsburgh favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
It's a good thing Fran is getting rained on because I don't think he's getting a shower tonight.
Q2 13:23 · r/CFB game thread · Thu, Sep 17 How it swung Watch the plays Drives What it cost Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung Before kickoff, our ratings gave Pittsburgh an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Pittsburgh was a 10.5-point favorite) put it at 80%.
Favored the whole way: Pittsburgh never fell below 73%.
Syracuse never had better than a 26% chance.
Final Pittsburgh 27-13 Syracuse Pittsburgh won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final Syracuse 13-27 Pittsburgh Syracuse lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 89% at half Pittsburgh Won 27-13 Scores Pittsburgh Syracuse Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 4 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 0 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 0 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 3 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 4 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 8 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 2 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 4 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 1 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 3 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 3 comments a minute Pittsburgh fans: 3 comments 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See it from Syracuse’s side No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 4:12 Oh Mason I’m gonna r/CFB game thread Kenneth Pickett doesn’t die, he just reinvents himself r/CFB game thread Q2 13:23 Syracuse coach Fran Brown receives unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after arguing with officials Quoted at the top of the page. Go get em fran that was horrible r/CFB game thread Q2 10:28 Syracuse kicker Woody shanks a 29-yard field goal attempt wide left sacrifice tripp woody to a pack of hungry wolves r/CFB game thread Q2 4:04 Boooo the funny thing didn’t happen r/CFB game thread lol, Syracuse gets 4 more downs not to score. r/CFB game thread Q4 11:35 Angeli throws interception to Lovelace as fans demand benching Will the Guangdong Tigers want Steve Angeli? r/CFB game thread Jesus Christ fran bench him r/CFB game thread Pittsburgh’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Pittsburgh -10.5), at 87% for Pittsburgh (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Pittsburgh or Syracuse flair (360 and 403); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Pittsburgh’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q1, 13:39 Heintschel sacked for a 5-yd loss Q1, 13:39 · Pittsburgh 0, Syracuse 0 0-0 score after the play 0-0 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 12:38 Ferguson 32-yd TD run Pittsburgh leads 14-0 Q2, 12:38 · Pittsburgh 14, Syracuse 0 ▲4% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 92% to 96% ▲4% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 92% to 96% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 3:28 Miller 2-yd TD run cuts it to 17-7 Q2, 3:28 · Pittsburgh 17, Syracuse 7 ▼5% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 97% to 92% ▼5% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 97% to 92% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 0:52 Heintschel intercepted by Kerr at the Syracuse 37 Q2, 0:52 · Pittsburgh 17, Syracuse 7 ▼2% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 93% to 91% ▼2% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 93% to 91% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 0:13 Angeli sacked for a 8-yd loss Q2, 0:13 · Pittsburgh 17, Syracuse 7 17-7 score after the play 17-7 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 6:48 Angeli sacked for a 8-yd loss Q3, 6:48 · Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 10 24-10 score after the play 24-10 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 14:17 Angeli intercepted by Strader at the Pittsburgh 30 Q4, 14:17 · Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 10 ▲3% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 95% to 98% ▲3% Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 95% to 98% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 11:35 Angeli intercepted by Lovelace at the Syracuse 41 Q4, 11:35 · Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 10 24-10 score after the play 24-10 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive Pittsburgh scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Syracuse on 3 of its 10.
Pittsburgh’s drives are teal, Syracuse’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Pittsburgh: Punt, from 75 yards out to 43 Punt Syracuse: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 37 Downs Pittsburgh: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0 Touchdown Syracuse: Punt, from 92 yards out to 89 Punt Q2 Pittsburgh: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0 Touchdown Syracuse: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 10 Missed FG Pittsburgh: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 24 Field goal Syracuse: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0 Touchdown Pittsburgh: Interception, from 80 yards out to 42 Interception Syracuse: Field goal, from 59 yards out to 24 Field goal Q3 Syracuse: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67 Punt Pittsburgh: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0 Touchdown Syracuse: Punt, from 84 yards out to 41 Punt Pittsburgh: Punt, from 88 yards out to 75 Punt Syracuse: Interception, from 75 yards out to 40 Interception Q4 Pittsburgh: Punt, from 67 yards out to 68 Punt Syracuse: Interception, from 82 yards out to 84 Interception Pittsburgh: Field goal, from 41 yards out to 15 Field goal Syracuse: Field goal, from 83 yards out to 12 Field goal Pittsburgh: End of game, from 48 yards out to 18 End of game “I don't know if I've ever seen someone miss the net from that close.” A Syracuse fan How fans reacted Steady
Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.
First Second Third Fourth Pittsburgh fans Syracuse fans usual Two crowds, one game The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Pittsburgh fans
mason “Feels like Pitt needs to give Mason some quick easy throws. They’re using these long developing plays and it hasn’t worked all game”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: throw, ball, every, getting.
What it cost Pittsburgh’s chance to win the conference rose from 2% to 3%.
Win the conference
Syracuse · lost 0% → 0%
Pittsburgh · won 2% → ▲ 3%
Before the game (September 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score Pittsburgh 27, Syracuse 13
Pittsburgh covered −10.5 by 3.5. The total, 40, stayed under 51.5.
Syracuse Pittsburgh Total yards Syracuse 347 Pittsburgh 368 347 368 Passing yards Syracuse 205 Pittsburgh 123 205 123 Rushing yards Syracuse 142 Pittsburgh 245 142 245 First downs Syracuse 23 Pittsburgh 22 23 22 Turnovers Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 1 2 1 Time of possession Syracuse 33:12 Pittsburgh 26:48 33:12 26:48 Team totals Syracuse Pittsburgh Total yards 347 368 Passing 20 of 32, 205 yds 10 of 23, 123 yds Rushing 38 for 142 yds 37 for 245 yds First downs 23 22 Third down 5 of 14 5 of 10 Fourth down 0 of 1 0 of 0 Turnovers 2 1 Penalties 10 for 94 yds 8 for 72 yds Time of possession 33:12 26:48
Syracuse leaders Passing Steven Angeli 13 of 25, 161 yds, 2 INTRushing Ahmad Miller 14 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Umari Hatcher 1 for 28 ydsReceiving Umari Hatcher 3 for 58 yds; Darius Johnson 5 for 42 ydsPittsburgh leaders Passing Mason Heintschel 10 of 23, 123 yds, 1 INTRushing Damon Ferguson Jr. 10 for 102 yds, 1 TD; La'Vell Wright 14 for 81 yds, 1 TDReceiving Carson Kent 2 for 63 yds; Bryce Yates 3 for 36 ydsNo rain through the game 77° at kickoff · 0.04 in of rain by radar over the stadium
September game-day temperatures at Acrisure Stadium
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pittsburgh favored Syracuse favored 100% Win chance Pittsburgh Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph Hourly wind only at this airport Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pittsburgh favored Syracuse favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 Hourly wind only at this airport Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 14:49 left7:36 p.m.
Syracuse 0, Pittsburgh 0 · Pittsburgh 87% to win
no rain · 78°
Heintschel 38-yd pass to Kent
Previous play Next play
Where this weather comes from Measured at Pittsburgh/alleghen airport, 8.1 miles away, and Pittsburgh International airport, 12 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: Syracuse’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh, 66 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Syracuse’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh’s defense
66 points weaker stronger 50th Syracuse offense, 71st percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 5th
Syracuse’s EPA/play against Pittsburgh’s defense
63 points weaker stronger 50th Syracuse offense, 24th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 87th
Syracuse’s rushing EPA against Pittsburgh’s defense
57 points weaker stronger 50th Syracuse offense, 43rd percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 100th
Season profile, all the rows Season profile Syracuse Pittsburgh
EPA/play, offense
Syracuse · 24 Pittsburgh · 53 EPA/play, defense
Syracuse · 59 Pittsburgh · 87 Success rate, offense
Syracuse · 42 Pittsburgh · 64 Success rate, defense
Syracuse · 50 Pittsburgh · 98 Explosive-play rate, offense
Syracuse · 71 Pittsburgh · 21 Explosive-play rate, defense
Syracuse · 51 Pittsburgh · 5 Rush EPA, offense
Syracuse · 43 Pittsburgh · 40 Rush EPA, defense
Syracuse · 34 Pittsburgh · 100 Pass EPA, offense
Syracuse · 32 Pittsburgh · 58 Pass EPA, defense
Syracuse · 86 Pittsburgh · 45 The series Pittsburgh leads the series 45-33-3
81 meetings since 1916 · Pittsburgh has won the last 2
Pittsburgh won Syracuse won 1916: Pittsburgh by 30 1917: Pittsburgh by 28 1919: Syracuse by 21 1920: tie 1921: Pittsburgh by 35 1922: Pittsburgh by 7 1923: Syracuse by 3 1924: tie 1928: Pittsburgh by 18 1930: Pittsburgh by 14 1955: Pittsburgh by 10 1956: Pittsburgh by 7 1957: Syracuse by 3 1958: Syracuse by 3 1959: Syracuse by 35 1960: Pittsburgh by 10 1961: Syracuse by 19 1962: Pittsburgh by 18 1963: Pittsburgh by 8 1964: Syracuse by 15 1965: Syracuse by 38 1966: Syracuse by 26 1967: Syracuse by 7 1968: Syracuse by 33 1969: Pittsburgh by 1 1970: Syracuse by 30 1971: Pittsburgh by 10 1972: Syracuse by 4 1973: Pittsburgh by 14 1974: Pittsburgh by 8 1975: Pittsburgh by 38 1976: Pittsburgh by 10 1977: Pittsburgh by 7 1978: Pittsburgh by 1 1979: Pittsburgh by 7 1980: Pittsburgh by 37 1981: Pittsburgh by 13 1982: Pittsburgh by 14 1983: Pittsburgh by 3 1984: Syracuse by 6 1985: Syracuse by 12 1986: Syracuse by 4 1987: Syracuse by 14 1988: Syracuse by 17 1989: Pittsburgh by 7 1990: tie 1991: Syracuse by 4 1992: Syracuse by 31 1993: Syracuse by 3 1994: Syracuse by 24 1995: Syracuse by 32 1996: Syracuse by 48 1997: Syracuse by 5 1998: Syracuse by 17 1999: Syracuse by 7 2000: Syracuse by 7 2001: Syracuse by 32 2002: Pittsburgh by 24 2003: Pittsburgh by 20 2004: Syracuse by 7 2005: Pittsburgh by 17 2006: Pittsburgh by 10 2007: Pittsburgh by 3 2008: Pittsburgh by 10 2009: Pittsburgh by 27 2010: Pittsburgh by 31 2011: Pittsburgh by 13 2012: Syracuse by 1 2013: Pittsburgh by 1 2014: Pittsburgh by 23 2015: Pittsburgh by 3 2016: Pittsburgh by 15 2017: Syracuse by 3 2018: Pittsburgh by 7 2019: Pittsburgh by 7 2020: Pittsburgh by 11 2021: Pittsburgh by 17 2022: Pittsburgh by 10 2023: Syracuse by 15 2024: Pittsburgh by 28 2025: Pittsburgh by 17 1916 2025 2025 Pittsburgh 30-13 Pittsburgh won 30-13 at Syracuse. Chance to win started at 65%, low 59%, high better than 99%. 2024 Pittsburgh 41-13 Pittsburgh won 41-13 vs Syracuse. Chance to win started at 63%, low 53%, high better than 99%. 2023 · neutral site Syracuse 28-13 Pittsburgh lost 13-28 vs Syracuse. Chance to win started at 53%, low 1%, high 85%. 2022 Pittsburgh 19-9 Pittsburgh won 19-9 vs Syracuse. Chance to win started at 55%, low 46%, high 99%. 2021 Pittsburgh 31-14 Pittsburgh won 31-14 at Syracuse. Chance to win started at 79%, low 55%, high 99%. Each line is Pittsburgh’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Pittsburgh fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (66th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
50-50 Model 82% · Line 80% Pittsburgh fans · 66th Syracuse fans · 16th Syracuse Pittsburgh Pittsburgh favored by 10.5 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go Pittsburgh by 10.5, and it went to form 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market The total fell 8 points.
opened 59.5 now 51.5 The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field Pittsburgh is worth +2.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 20th percentile.
62% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (31-19 home, 22-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.3 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 268 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2015.