Now I might just be a simple country lawyer, but I’m pretty sure if Alabama only scores 3 points after every time FSU gets 7, they significantly reduce their chances of winning.
2Q2 2:36Russell 21-yd TD pass to Morgan, cuts it to 21-13Alabama 55% → 67% (+12)
The two plays that swung it
1Q2 9:42Daniels 3-yd TD run, Florida State leads 21-6Florida State 23% → 34% (+11)
2Q2 2:36Russell 21-yd TD pass to Morgan, cuts it to 21-13Florida State 45% → 33% (−12)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 2:51Kromah runs for a touchdown, extending Florida State's lead to 14-3Dude why does FSU look like Ohio State against Bamar/CFB game threadI feel dirty for rooting for Florida State, but this is objectively hilarious so far.r/CFB game thread
Q2 12:25Ashton Daniels runs for a touchdown, making it 21-6 Florida StateFlorida State turning into the best team in the country when they play Bama is one of the funnier things in college footballr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 9:42Fans react to FSU's 21-6 lead and broadcast camera issuesThis camera angle looks like what happens when you hit the wrong button on NCAAr/CFB game threadWhy is it deemed too dangerous for half the camera personnel to operate but all the players, coaches, refs, staff, etc are good to keep playing?r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:22Alabama scores twice quickly to take the lead before halftimeNo team has ever needed halftime more than FSU rn and they’re not getting it lolr/CFB game threadEthical touchdownr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:25Daniels 0-yd pass to Kromahbro could've fair caught thatr/CFB game thread
Alabama’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Alabama -18.5), at 92% for Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Alabama or Florida State flair (1,746 and 1,730); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Kickoff came 1 hour 44 minutes late. Thunder was reported at Tuscaloosa Muni airport (3.8 miles away) from 2:07 p.m. to 2:17 p.m., around the delay.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Alabama’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
How Florida State fans took it: “The real loss tonight is Alabama didn’t blow us out by enough for us to fire Norvell tomorrow. Thanks for nothing elephants” r/CFB game thread
“I take back everything Iv said so far. I was in a bad state of mind and I didn’t mean much of it”
An Alabama fan
When fans got loud
Loud
It was the second quarter that had fans talking the most.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Alabama fans
deboer“I’m so sick of looking at DeBoer’s confused face every time a team runs down our throat”
line“Keelon, man, you can't just hang out for 3 business days waiting to throw. The best o-line in the world is gonna break eventually.”
Florida State fans
norvell“We won the first quarter! 80 million dollar extension for Mike Norvell loading”
white“Don’t worry Tony White, I’m sure Pop Warner has plenty of opportunities for you.”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, back, half, don.
What it cost
Alabama’s chance to make the playoff rose from 72% to 75%.
Make the playoff
Florida State · lost0% → 0%
Alabama · won72% → ▲75%
Win the conference
Florida State · lost0% → 0%
Alabama · won18% → ▲21%
Win the title
Florida State · lost0% → 0%
Alabama · won11% → ▼10%
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Alabama 50, Florida State 36
Florida State covered +18.5 by 4.5. The total, 86, went over 50.5.
Team totals
Florida State
Alabama
Total yards
471
567
Passing
17 of 29, 377 yds
23 of 30, 320 yds
Rushing
35 for 94 yds
36 for 247 yds
First downs
17
26
Third down
8 of 15
4 of 12
Fourth down
2 of 3
2 of 2
Turnovers
3
0
Penalties
6 for 40 yds
7 for 55 yds
Time of possession
27:52
32:08
Florida State leaders
Passing Ashton Daniels 17 of 29, 377 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
Rushing Ousmane Kromah 17 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Ashton Daniels 13 for 7 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Duce Robinson 6 for 135 yds, 1 TD; Micahi Danzy 3 for 89 yds
Alabama leaders
Passing Keelon Russell 23 of 30, 320 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Trae'shawn Brown 12 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Daniel Hill 11 for 59 yds
Receiving Lotzeir Brooks 8 for 101 yds; Ryan Williams 3 for 62 yds, 1 TD
Kickoff came 1 hour 44 minutes late
95° at kickoff · feels like 89° to 101° · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the west-southwest, gusts to 15
A feels-like 101° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
Thunder was reported at Tuscaloosa Muni airport (3.8 miles away) from 2:07 p.m. to 2:17 p.m., around the delay.
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 68 other games played at Bryant-Denny Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 78°, with about 7 in 10 games between 69° and 86°.
no rain · wind 6 mph from the west-northwest · 95°, feels like 100°
Hill 4-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Tuscaloosa Muni airport, 3.8 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Florida State · 1-1
Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 92nd now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Alabama is rated 9.0 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida State’s explosive plays against Alabama, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida State’s explosive plays against Alabama’s defense
Florida State offense, 92nd percentile · Alabama defense, 24th
Alabama’s EPA/play against Florida State’s defense
Alabama offense, 80th percentile · Florida State defense, 15th
Alabama’s passing EPA against Florida State’s defense
Alabama offense, 76th percentile · Florida State defense, 24th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Florida StateAlabama
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Alabama leads the series 3-2-1
6 meetings since 1965 · Florida State won the last meeting
2025Florida State 31-17
2017 · neutral siteAlabama 24-7
2007Florida State 21-14
1974Alabama 8-7
1967Tie 37-37
Each line is Alabama’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Alabama fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (34th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Alabama favored by 18.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Alabama by 18.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Alabama.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −15.5 → −18.5 · Total: 52.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 98° at kickoff.
Florida State at Alabama · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
98°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
37weather score, Harsh
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Bryant-Denny Stadium that day, a 6:30 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 80, against 37 at 2:30 pm.
Alabama is worth +6.1 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 84th percentile.
92% at home, 78% on the road against FBS opponents (47-4 home, 32-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.6 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Alabama · Q2 0:22
Alabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.