Harvard beats Colgate 20-17

Team pages: Colgate · Harvard

Colgate4-217
Harvard3-020Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Harvard Stadium, Boston, Mass. · Crowd 9,100ESPN+

Harvard beat Colgate 20-17 after its win chance fell to 6%.

Winners have been down to 6% or less in about 1 of every 19 games since 2018.

Next: Colgate lost to Georgetown 27-17, Sat Oct 17

Next: Harvard beat Cornell 41-29, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Smith 8-yd TD pass to Bailey, Harvard goes ahead 20-17 (Q4, 0:00). Harvard went from 28% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Harvard a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Harvard was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

FinalHarvard 20-17 ColgateHarvard wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q464% at halfHarvardColgateWon20-17Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q464% at halfHarvardColgateWon20-17Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q436% at halfColgateHarvardLost17-20Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q436% at halfColgateHarvardLost17-20Scores

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 2:08Smith 2-yd TD pass to Gilmartin, Harvard goes ahead 14-10Harvard 52% → 87% (+35)
  2. 2Q4 0:27Stearney 13-yd TD pass to Fogler, Colgate goes ahead 17-14Harvard 74% → 6% (−68)
  3. 3Q4 0:00Smith 8-yd TD pass to Bailey, Harvard goes ahead 20-17Harvard 28% → 100% (+72)

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 2:08Smith 2-yd TD pass to Gilmartin, Harvard goes ahead 14-10Colgate 48% → 13% (−35)
  2. 2Q4 0:27Stearney 13-yd TD pass to Fogler, Colgate goes ahead 17-14Colgate 26% → 94% (+68)
  3. 3Q4 0:00Smith 8-yd TD pass to Bailey, Harvard goes ahead 20-17Colgate 72% → 0% (−72)
Harvard’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Harvard -4.5), at 69% for Harvard (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Harvard scored on 3 of its 10 drives; Colgate on 3 of its 10.

Harvard’s drives are teal, Colgate’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Colgate: Punt, from 65 yards out to 64PuntHarvard: Missed field goal, from 62 yards out to 5Missed FGColgate: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntHarvard: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownColgate: Punt, from 70 yards out to 60PuntHarvard: Punt, from 90 yards out to 85PuntColgate: Touchdown, from 41 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Harvard: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 2DownsColgate: Punt, from 98 yards out to 63PuntHarvard: Interception, from 70 yards out to 47InterceptionColgate: Interception, from 61 yards out to 48InterceptionQ3Harvard: Punt, from 80 yards out to 40PuntColgate: Missed field goal, from 92 yards out to 22Missed FGHarvard: Punt, from 80 yards out to 54PuntColgate: Punt, from 89 yards out to 69PuntHarvard: Turned over on downs, from 68 yards out to 32DownsQ4Colgate: Field goal, from 68 yards out to 7Field goalHarvard: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownColgate: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownHarvard: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0Touchdown

From Colgate’s side

Colgate’s best moment: Stearney 13-yd TD pass to Fogler, Colgate goes ahead 17-14 (Q4 0:27). It lifted Colgate’s win chance by 68 points.

The winner fell to 6%.

Box score

Harvard 20, Colgate 17

Colgate covered +4.5 by 1.5. The total, 37, stayed under 40.5.

Colgate leaders

  • Passing Jake Stearney 21 of 39, 188 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Caleb Naumann 18 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Winston Moore 2 for 21 yds
  • Receiving Matt Fogler 12 for 138 yds, 1 TD; Kam Phillips 1 for 20 yds

Harvard leaders

  • Passing Charlie Smith 31 of 45, 369 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Xaviah Bascon 10 for 51 yds; Maddux Reid 6 for 22 yds
  • Receiving Nate Bailey 16 for 197 yds, 1 TD; Teigan Pelletier 4 for 62 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Colgate · 4-1

Rated 214th in our preseason ratings, 159th now, up 55 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Villanova as a 3-point underdog.

W 28-21 @ Villanova #171 of 668

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

W 20-7 vs Cornell #249 of 668

won by 13 as a 12.5-point favorite

Colgate won 20-7 vs Cornell. Chance to win started at 85%, low 84%, high better than 99%.

L 10-13 @ Central Michigan #131 of 668

lost by 3 as an 18.5-point underdog

Colgate lost 10-13 at Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 60%.

W 35-10 vs Holy Cross #209 of 668

won by 25 as a 4.5-point favorite

Colgate won 35-10 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 70%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

W 24-14 @ Fordham #249 of 668

won by 10 as an 8.5-point favorite

Colgate won 24-14 at Fordham. Chance to win started at 63%, low 55%, high 97%.

Last two games

Harvard · 2-0

Rated 195th in our preseason ratings, 180th now, up 15 spots.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 14-10 @ Brown #229 of 668

won by 4 as a 13.5-point favorite

Harvard won 14-10 at Brown. Chance to win started at 77%, low 73%, high 97%.

W 31-7 @ New Hampshire #225 of 668

won by 24 as a 14.5-point favorite

Harvard won 31-7 at New Hampshire. Chance to win started at 81%, low 67%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Harvard

Wk 3: W 31-7 at New Hampshire▲24New HampshireWk 4: W 14-10 at Brown▲4Brown
  • Wk 3Wat New Hampshire31-7
  • Wk 4Wat Brown14-10

Colgate

Wk 1: W 24-14 at Fordham▲10FordhamWk 1: W 35-10 vs Holy Cross▲25Holy Cro…Wk 2: L 10-13 at Central Michigan▼3C. Michi…Wk 3: W 20-7 vs Cornell▲13CornellWk 4: W 28-21 at Villanova▲7Villanova
  • Wk 1Wat Fordham24-14
  • Wk 1Wvs Holy Cross35-10
  • Wk 2Lat Central Michigan10-13
  • Wk 3Wvs Cornell20-7
  • Wk 4Wat Villanova28-21

Power rating by week

Colgate is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-6-8-10Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4HarvardColgate

The series

Harvard leads the series 3-2

5 meetings since 1952 · Harvard won the last meeting

  • 1978Harvard 24-21
  • 1977Colgate 38-21
  • 1961Colgate 15-0
  • 1953Harvard 28-26
  • 1952Harvard 21-20

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Harvard’s chances here.

50-50Model · 55%Line · 64%ColgateHarvard

Harvard favored by 4.5 · Total 40.5

How games like this usually go

Harvard by 4.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total rose 4 points.

opened 36.5now 40.5

Total: 36.5 → 40.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Where next