Harvard beats Brown 14-10

Team pages: Harvard · Brown

Harvard2-014
Brown1-110Final
Fri, Sep 25 · Brown Stadium, Providence, R.I. · Crowd 8,065ESPN

Harvard beat Brown 14-10.

We had Brown favored. Harvard won.

Next: Harvard beat Colgate 20-17, Sat Oct 3

Next: Brown lost to Rhode Island 13-10, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Murphy intercepted by Benson at the Brown 39 (Q4, 1:32). Harvard went from 73% to 97% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Harvard a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Harvard was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

Favored the whole way: Harvard never fell below 72%.

Brown never had better than a 27% chance.

FinalHarvard 14-10 BrownHarvard wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4HarvardHigh 97%Won14-10Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4HarvardHigh 97%Won14-10Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4HarvardLowest 3%Lost10-14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4HarvardLowest 3%Lost10-14Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 1:554th and 3Smith incomplete to Bailey, turnover on downsHarvard 93% → 73% (−20)
  2. 2Q4 1:32InterceptionMurphy intercepted by Benson at the Brown 39Harvard 73% → 97% (+24)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 1:554th and 3Smith incomplete to Bailey, turnover on downsBrown 7% → 27% (+20)
  2. 2Q4 1:32InterceptionMurphy intercepted by Benson at the Brown 39Brown 27% → 3% (−24)
Harvard’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Harvard -13.5), at 77% for Harvard (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Harvard scored on 2 of its 11 drives; Brown on 2 of its 10.

Harvard’s drives are teal, Brown’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Harvard: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 9FumbleBrown: Interception, from 81 yards out to 70InterceptionHarvard: Touchdown, from 48 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Punt, from 77 yards out to 56PuntHarvard: Punt, from 99 yards out to 95PuntQ2Brown: Punt, from 66 yards out to 59PuntHarvard: Touchdown, from 86 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Interception, from 75 yards out to 19InterceptionHarvard: Punt, from 83 yards out to 77PuntBrown: End of half, from 80 yards out to 82End of halfQ3Brown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 36PuntHarvard: Interception, from 95 yards out to 69InterceptionBrown: Field goal, from 45 yards out to 30Field goalHarvard: Punt, from 71 yards out to 65PuntQ4Brown: Punt, from 94 yards out to 92PuntHarvard: Missed field goal, from 46 yards out to 25Missed FGBrown: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownHarvard: Punt, from 81 yards out to 86PuntHarvard: Turned over on downs, from 48 yards out to 27DownsBrown: Interception, from 73 yards out to 69InterceptionHarvard: End of game, from 39 yards out to 30End of game

From Brown’s side

Brown’s best moment: Smith incomplete to Bailey, turnover on downs (Q4 1:55). It lifted Brown’s win chance by 20 points.

Box score

Harvard 14, Brown 10

Brown covered +13.5 by 9.5. The total, 24, stayed under 42.5.

Harvard leaders

  • Passing Charlie Smith 30 of 37, 205 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Xaviah Bascon 15 for 45 yds; Cole Allen 7 for 38 yds
  • Receiving Nate Bailey 9 for 80 yds; Ryan Tattersall 4 for 35 yds, 1 TD

Brown leaders

  • Passing James Murphy 18 of 24, 121 yds, 3 INT
  • Rushing Matt Childs 11 for 57 yds; Jackson Bennett 2 for 29 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Matt Childs 7 for 59 yds; Michael Nesbit 2 for 23 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Harvard · 9-2

Rated 195th in our preseason ratings, 201st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-52 @ Villanova #84 of 667

lost by 45 as a 2-point favorite

L 28-45 @ Yale #161 of 667

lost by 17 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 45-43 vs Pennsylvania #217 of 667

won by 2 as a 23-point favorite

W 31-14 @ Columbia #239 of 667

won by 17 as a 29.5-point favorite

W 31-10 vs Dartmouth #180 of 667

won by 21 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 35-14 @ Princeton #218 of 667

won by 21 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 31-7 vs Merrimack #217 of 667

won by 24 as a 27.5-point favorite

W 34-10 vs Cornell #247 of 667

won by 24 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 59-24 @ Holy Cross #225 of 667

won by 35 as a 14-point favorite

W 41-7 vs Brown #250 of 667

won by 34 as a 16.5-point favorite

W 59-7 @ Stetson #265 of 667

won by 52 as a 35.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Brown · 5-5

Rated 227th in our preseason ratings, 242nd now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Dartmouth as an 8-point underdog.

W 35-28 vs Dartmouth #194 of 667

won by 7 as an 8-point underdog

W 32-29 @ Columbia #239 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 22-34 vs Yale #176 of 667

lost by 12 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 21-28 @ Pennsylvania #214 of 667

lost by 7 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 24-30 @ Cornell #231 of 667

lost by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 21-40 vs Princeton #213 of 667

lost by 19 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 29-19 @ Bryant #240 of 667

won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 28-21 vs Rhode Island #142 of 667

won by 7 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 7-41 @ Harvard #195 of 667

lost by 34 as a 16.5-point underdog

W 46-0 vs Georgetown #241 of 667

won by 46 as a 3.5-point underdog

Week by week

Brown

  • Wk 3Wat New Haven17-10

Harvard

  • Wk 3Wat New Hampshire31-7

Power rating by week

Harvard is rated 2.0 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-8.1-9.4-10.7Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3BrownHarvard

The series

Harvard leads the series 77-24-2

103 meetings since 1893 · Harvard won the last meeting

Brown wonHarvard won1893: Harvard by 581894: Harvard by 141894: Harvard by 181895: Harvard by 201896: Harvard by 121897: Harvard by 181898: Harvard by 111899: Harvard by 111900: Harvard by 51901: Harvard by 481902: Harvard by 61903: Harvard by 291905: Harvard by 101906: Harvard by 41907: Harvard by 11908: Harvard by 41909: Harvard by 111910: Harvard by 121911: Harvard by 141912: Harvard by 201913: Harvard by 371914: tie1915: Harvard by 91916: Brown by 211918: Brown by 31919: Harvard by 71920: Harvard by 271921: Harvard by 21922: Brown by 31923: Brown by 131924: Brown by 71925: Harvard by 31926: Brown by 211927: Harvard by 121932: Brown by 141933: Harvard by 61934: Harvard by 131935: Harvard by 331936: Harvard by 281937: Harvard by 271938: Brown by 71940: Harvard by 141941: Harvard by 161942: Harvard by 71945: Harvard by 71946: Harvard by 281947: Harvard by 61948: Harvard by 111949: Brown by 141950: Harvard by 11951: Harvard by 131952: Brown by 71953: Harvard by 71954: tie1955: Brown by 81956: Brown by 91957: Brown by 271958: Brown by 71959: Brown by 101960: Harvard by 141961: Harvard by 151962: Harvard by 121963: Harvard by 121964: Harvard by 121965: Harvard by 91966: Harvard by 171967: Harvard by 151968: Harvard by 241969: Brown by 71970: Harvard by 71971: Harvard by 51972: Harvard by 71973: Harvard by 31974: Brown by 31975: Harvard by 191976: Brown by 21977: Brown by 51978: Brown by 11979: Brown by 91980: Harvard by 11981: Harvard by 342003: Harvard by 382004: Harvard by 12005: Harvard by 32006: Harvard by 172007: Harvard by 72008: Brown by 22009: Harvard by 32010: Brown by 152011: Harvard by 172012: Harvard by 142013: Harvard by 182014: Harvard by 82015: Harvard by 262016: Harvard by 102017: Harvard by 172018: Harvard by 142019: Harvard by 352021: Harvard by 322022: Harvard by 72023: Harvard by 32024: Brown by 32025: Harvard by 3418932025
  • 2025Harvard 41-7
  • 2024Brown 31-28
  • 2023Harvard 34-31
  • 2022Harvard 35-28
  • 2021Harvard 49-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Brown’s chances here.

50-50Model · 45%Line · 14%HarvardBrown

Harvard favored by 13.5 · Total 42.5

How games like this usually go

Harvard by 13.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total fell 3 points.

opened 45.5now 42.5

Total: 45.5 → 42.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next