Rhode Island beats Brown 13-10

Team pages: Brown · Rhode Island

Brown1-210
Rhode Island3-313Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Centreville Bank Stadium, Pawtucket, R.I. · Crowd 5,368FloSports

Rhode Island beat Brown 13-10.

Next: Brown beat Bryant 28-13, Sat Oct 10

Next: Rhode Island beat Yale 41-23, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: 33-yd punt (Q4, 1:19). Rhode Island went from 75% to 46% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Rhode Island a 75% chance, and the closing betting line (Rhode Island was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.

Down to 28% in the fourth quarter, Rhode Island came back to win.

Up to 72% in the fourth quarter, then Brown lost it.

FinalRhode Island 13-10 BrownRhode Island wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q470% at halfRhode IslandBrownLowest 28%Won13-1012−24+24Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q470% at halfRhode IslandBrownLowest 28%Won13-1012Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q430% at halfBrownRhode IslandHigh 72%Lost10-1312+24−24Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q430% at halfBrownRhode IslandHigh 72%Lost10-1312Scores

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 13:29Brown 1-yd TD run, Brown goes ahead 10-3Rhode Island 52% → 28% (−24)
  2. 2Q4 12:05McClelland 12-yd TD run, ties it 10-10Rhode Island 28% → 52% (+24)
  3. 3Q4 1:1933-yd puntRhode Island 75% → 46% (−29)
  4. 4Q4 0:32Special teams32-yd punt, Green returns it 0Rhode Island 61% → 81% (+20)
  5. 5Q4 0:11Groff 43-yd field goal, Rhode Island goes ahead 13-10Rhode Island 66% → 93% (+27)

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 13:29Brown 1-yd TD run, Brown goes ahead 10-3Brown 48% → 72% (+24)
  2. 2Q4 12:05McClelland 12-yd TD run, ties it 10-10Brown 72% → 48% (−24)
  3. 3Q4 1:1933-yd puntBrown 25% → 54% (+29)
  4. 4Q4 0:32Special teams32-yd punt, Green returns it 0Brown 39% → 19% (−20)
  5. 5Q4 0:11Groff 43-yd field goal, Rhode Island goes ahead 13-10Brown 34% → 7% (−27)
Rhode Island’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Rhode Island -3.5), at 70% for Rhode Island (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Rhode Island scored on 3 of its 13 drives; Brown on 2 of its 14.

Rhode Island’s drives are teal, Brown’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Rhode Island: Turned over on downs, from 67 yards out to 35DownsBrown: Punt, from 65 yards out to 60PuntRhode Island: Punt, from 62 yards out to 41PuntBrown: Punt, from 91 yards out to 51PuntRhode Island: Interception, from 84 yards out to 63InterceptionBrown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntQ2Rhode Island: Punt, from 66 yards out to 63PuntBrown: Punt, from 69 yards out to 46PuntRhode Island: Punt, from 80 yards out to 45PuntBrown: Punt, from 80 yards out to 39PuntRhode Island: Punt, from 80 yards out to 79PuntBrown: Punt, from 60 yards out to 66PuntRhode Island: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 26Field goalBrown: End of half, from 70 yards out to 72End of halfQ3Brown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntRhode Island: Fumble, from 85 yards out to 7FumbleBrown: Field goal, from 93 yards out to 15Field goalRhode Island: Punt, from 65 yards out to 63PuntBrown: Interception, from 82 yards out to 46InterceptionRhode Island: Fumble, from 86 yards out to 87FumbleBrown: Touchdown, from 13 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Rhode Island: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Punt, from 74 yards out to 38PuntRhode Island: Punt, from 73 yards out to 45PuntBrown: Punt, from 88 yards out to 86PuntRhode Island: Field goal, from 46 yards out to 26Field goalBrown: End of game, from 64 yards out to 58End of game

From Brown’s side

Brown’s best moment: 33-yd punt (Q4 1:19). It lifted Brown’s win chance by 29 points.

Box score

Rhode Island 13, Brown 10

Brown covered +3.5 by 0.5. The total, 23, stayed under 46.5.

Brown leaders

  • Passing James Murphy 21 of 37, 271 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Matt Childs 13 for 37 yds; Qwentin Brown 3 for 3 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jadon Garza-Pender 3 for 66 yds; Matt Childs 6 for 64 yds

Rhode Island leaders

  • Passing Alex McClelland 6 of 11, 83 yds
  • Rushing Gabe Winowich 23 for 85 yds; Brendon Barrow 8 for 42 yds
  • Receiving Marquis Buchanan 5 for 90 yds; Sean Byrd 2 for 36 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Brown · 1-1

Rated 227th in our preseason ratings, 229th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-14 vs Harvard #180 of 668

lost by 4 as a 13.5-point underdog

Brown lost 10-14 vs Harvard. Chance to win started at 23%, low 3%, high 27%.

W 17-10 @ New Haven #256 of 668

won by 7 as a 10-point favorite

Brown won 17-10 at New Haven. Chance to win started at 69%, low 64%, high 97%.

Last three games

Rhode Island · 2-3

Rated 106th in our preseason ratings, 136th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 18-22 @ North Carolina A&T #255 of 668

lost by 4 as a 24.5-point favorite

L 24-56 @ Stony Brook #166 of 668

lost by 32 as a 9.5-point favorite

Rhode Island lost 24-56 at Stony Brook. Chance to win started at 66%, low under 1%, high 82%.

W 31-10 vs Elon #178 of 668

won by 21 as an 8.5-point favorite

Rhode Island won 31-10 vs Elon. Chance to win started at 78%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

L 14-38 @ Temple #89 of 668

lost by 24 as a 14.5-point underdog

Rhode Island lost 14-38 at Temple. Chance to win started at 10%, low under 1%, high 14%.

W 34-7 @ Merrimack #216 of 668

won by 27 as a 21-point favorite

Rhode Island won 34-7 at Merrimack. Chance to win started at 89%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Rhode Island

Wk 1: W 34-7 at Merrimack▲27MerrimackWk 1: L 14-38 at Temple▼24TempleWk 2: W 31-10 vs Elon▲21ElonWk 3: L 24-56 at Stony Brook▼32Stony Br…Wk 4: L 18-22 at North Carolina A&T▼4N. Carol…
  • Wk 1Wat Merrimack34-7
  • Wk 1Lat Temple14-38
  • Wk 2Wvs Elon31-10
  • Wk 3Lat Stony Brook24-56
  • Wk 4Lat North Carolina A&T18-22

Brown

Wk 3: W 17-10 at New Haven▲7New HavenWk 4: L 10-14 vs Harvard▼4Harvard
  • Wk 3Wat New Haven17-10
  • Wk 4Lvs Harvard10-14

Power rating by week

Rhode Island is rated 5.1 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-7-12Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Rhode IslandBrown

The series

Brown leads the series 65-22-2

89 meetings since 1909 · Brown won the last meeting

Rhode Island wonBrown won1909: Brown by 61910: Brown by 51911: Brown by 121912: Brown by 141913: Brown by 191914: Brown by 201915: Brown by 381916: Brown by 181917: Brown by 271919: Brown by 271920: Brown by 251921: Brown by 61922: Brown by 271925: Brown by 331926: Brown by 141927: Brown by 271928: Brown by 261929: Brown by 81930: Brown by 71931: Brown by 181932: Brown by 191933: Brown by 261934: Brown by 131935: Rhode Island by 61936: Brown by 11937: Brown by 71938: Brown by 191939: Brown by 341940: Brown by 31941: Brown by 71942: Brown by 281946: Brown by 291947: Brown by 491948: Brown by 331949: Brown by 461950: Brown by 421951: Brown by 71952: Rhode Island by 11953: Rhode Island by 61954: Brown by 351955: Rhode Island by 121956: Brown by 201957: Brown by 141958: Brown by 411959: Brown by 61960: Brown by 221961: Rhode Island by 31962: tie1963: Brown by 261964: Brown by 161965: Rhode Island by 81966: Brown by 131967: Rhode Island by 41968: Brown by 11969: Brown by 211970: Brown by 71971: Rhode Island by 131972: Rhode Island by 41973: tie1974: Brown by 301975: Brown by 211976: Brown by 31977: Brown by 181978: Rhode Island by 141979: Brown by 181980: Brown by 61981: Brown by 22003: Rhode Island by 182004: Brown by 72005: Brown by 102006: Rhode Island by 72007: Rhode Island by 72008: Rhode Island by 242009: Brown by 82010: Rhode Island by 32011: Brown by 142012: Brown by 102013: Brown by 172014: Brown by 72015: Brown by 102016: Rhode Island by 152017: Brown by 32018: Rhode Island by 482019: Rhode Island by 32021: Rhode Island by 212022: Rhode Island by 282023: Rhode Island by 42024: Rhode Island by 102025: Brown by 719092025
  • 2025Brown 28-21
  • 2024Rhode Island 31-21
  • 2023Rhode Island 34-30
  • 2022Rhode Island 38-10
  • 2021Rhode Island 45-24

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Rhode Island’s chances here.

50-50Model · 75%Line · 61%BrownRhode Island

Rhode Island favored by 3.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

Rhode Island by 3.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total rose 4 points.

opened 42.5now 46.5

Total: 42.5 → 46.5

The books’ cut: 5.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Rhode Island has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.6 points (±8.7), home against road — 5th percentile of FBS.

25% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (1-3 home, 2-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 2 miles to get here.

Where next