Brown beats Bryant 28-13

Team pages: Bryant · Brown

Bryant4-213
Brown2-228Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Brown Stadium, Providence, R.I. · Crowd 2,531ESPN+

Brown beat Bryant 28-13.

We had Brown favored. It won.

Next: Bryant beat Maine 17-14, Sat Oct 17

Next: Brown lost to Princeton 16-10, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Brown a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Brown was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.

Favored the whole way: Brown never fell below 64%.

Bryant never had better than a 36% chance.

TargetingQ3 6:45
FinalBrown 28-13 BryantBrown wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfBrownWon28-13ScoresTargeting
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfBrownWon28-13ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfBrownLowest 0%Lost13-28ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfBrownLowest 0%Lost13-28ScoresTargeting

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Brown’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Brown -5.5), at 73% for Brown (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Brown scored on 4 of its 9 drives; Bryant on 3 of its 10.

Brown’s drives are teal, Bryant’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Brown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntBryant: Punt, from 81 yards out to 83PuntBrown: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownBryant: Punt, from 81 yards out to 33PuntBrown: Touchdown, from 91 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Bryant: Punt, from 82 yards out to 65PuntBrown: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownBryant: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownBrown: Punt, from 65 yards out to 51PuntBryant: Punt, from 68 yards out to 76PuntBrown: Interception, from 53 yards out to 10InterceptionBryant: End of half, from 80 yards out to 26End of halfQ3Bryant: Field goal, from 70 yards out to 14Field goalBrown: Punt, from 68 yards out to 60PuntBryant: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 6Field goalBrown: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Bryant: Interception, from 82 yards out to 18InterceptionBrown: Turned over on downs, from 89 yards out to 30DownsBryant: End of game, from 70 yards out to 50End of game

Box score

Brown 28, Bryant 13

Brown covered −5.5 by 9.5. The total, 41, stayed under 43.5.

Bryant leaders

  • Passing Brennan Myer 29 of 37, 308 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing O'Shawn Ross Jr. 6 for 39 yds; Jordan Bennett 14 for 33 yds
  • Receiving Shamar Fowles 12 for 135 yds, 1 TD; Sean Wilson 5 for 67 yds

Brown leaders

  • Passing James Murphy 16 of 25, 198 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Matt Childs 18 for 103 yds, 2 TD; Eli Jones 7 for 33 yds
  • Receiving Pearson Hill 3 for 56 yds; Matt Childs 4 for 45 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Bryant · 4-1

Rated 206th in our preseason ratings, 178th now, up 28 spots.

Three straight wins, including a 7-point win over Princeton as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 31-30 vs North Carolina A&T #251 of 668

won by 1 as a 13.5-point favorite

Bryant won 31-30 vs North Carolina A&T. Chance to win started at 87%, low 6%, high better than 99%.

W 21-14 vs Princeton #245 of 668

won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Bryant won 21-14 vs Princeton. Chance to win started at 44%, low 18%, high 97%.

W 31-3 @ Hampton #263 of 668

won by 28 as a 3.5-point favorite

Bryant won 31-3 at Hampton. Chance to win started at 53%, low 41%, high better than 99%.

L 3-59 @ Army #39 of 668

lost by 56 as a 37.5-point underdog

Bryant lost 3-59 at Army. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 24-6 @ Stonehill #248 of 668

won by 18 as a 4-point favorite

Bryant won 24-6 at Stonehill. Chance to win started at 52%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Brown · 1-2

Rated 227th in our preseason ratings, 215th now, up 12 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-13 @ Rhode Island #144 of 668

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

Brown lost 10-13 at Rhode Island. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 72%.

L 10-14 vs Harvard #180 of 668

lost by 4 as a 13.5-point underdog

Brown lost 10-14 vs Harvard. Chance to win started at 23%, low 3%, high 27%.

W 17-10 @ New Haven #256 of 668

won by 7 as a 10-point favorite

Brown won 17-10 at New Haven. Chance to win started at 69%, low 64%, high 97%.

Week by week

Brown

Wk 3: W 17-10 at New Haven▲7New HavenWk 4: L 10-14 vs Harvard▼4HarvardWk 5: L 10-13 at Rhode Island▼3Rhode Island
  • Wk 3Wat New Haven17-10
  • Wk 4Lvs Harvard10-14
  • Wk 5Lat Rhode Island10-13

Bryant

Wk 1: W 24-6 at Stonehill▲18StonehillWk 1: L 3-59 at Army▼56ArmyWk 2: W 31-3 at Hampton▲28HamptonWk 3: W 21-14 vs Princeton▲7PrincetonWk 5: W 31-30 vs North Carolina A&T▲1N. Carol…
  • Wk 1Wat Stonehill24-6
  • Wk 1Lat Army3-59
  • Wk 2Wat Hampton31-3
  • Wk 3Wvs Princeton21-14
  • Wk 5Wvs North Carolina A&T31-30

Power rating by week

Bryant is rated 1.6 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-9-11Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5BrownBryant

The series

Brown leads the series 7-3

10 meetings since 2013 · Brown won the last meeting

Brown wonBryant won2013: Brown by 272015: Bryant by 42016: Brown by 82017: Brown by 52019: Brown by 52021: Bryant by 72022: Brown by 62023: Brown by 42024: Bryant by 72025: Brown by 1020132025
  • 2025Brown 29-19
  • 2024Bryant 42-35
  • 2023Brown 29-25
  • 2022Brown 44-38
  • 2021Bryant 36-29

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Brown’s chances here.

50-50Model · 57%Line · 67%BryantBrown

Brown favored by 5.5 · Total 43.5

How games like this usually go

Brown by 5.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Brown.

opened −4.5now −5.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 42.5now 43.5

Spread: −4.5 → −5.5 · Total: 42.5 → 43.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next