Rhode Island upsets Yale 41-23

Team pages: Rhode Island · Yale

Rhode Island4-341
Yale3-223Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Yale Bowl, New Haven, Conn. · Crowd 4,315ESPN+

Rhode Island beat Yale 41-23 as a 12.5-point underdog.

We had Yale favored. Rhode Island won.

Next: Rhode Island vs UAlbany, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

Next: Yale at Pennsylvania, Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Hamel 48-yd field goal, Rhode Island leads 17-0 (Q2, 9:47). Rhode Island went from 63% to 29% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Rhode Island a 40% chance, and the closing betting line (Rhode Island was a 12.5-point underdog) put it at 16%.

FinalRhode Island 41-23 YaleRhode Island wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfRhode IslandYaleLowest 14%Won41-23123+23−34+22Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfRhode IslandYaleLowest 14%Won41-23123Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfYaleRhode IslandHigh 86%Lost23-41123−23+34−22Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfYaleRhode IslandHigh 86%Lost23-41123Scores

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:20McClelland 79-yd TD pass to Buchanan, Rhode Island leads 14-0Rhode Island 33% → 56% (+23)
  2. 2Q2 9:47Hamel 48-yd field goal, Rhode Island leads 17-0Rhode Island 63% → 29% (−34)
  3. 3Q3 4:28McClelland 37-yd TD pass to Buchanan, Rhode Island leads 27-10Rhode Island 64% → 86% (+22)

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:20McClelland 79-yd TD pass to Buchanan, Rhode Island leads 14-0Yale 67% → 44% (−23)
  2. 2Q2 9:47Hamel 48-yd field goal, Rhode Island leads 17-0Yale 37% → 71% (+34)
  3. 3Q3 4:28McClelland 37-yd TD pass to Buchanan, Rhode Island leads 27-10Yale 36% → 14% (−22)
Rhode Island’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Yale -12.5), at 14% for Rhode Island (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Rhode Island scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Yale on 4 of its 13.

Rhode Island’s drives are teal, Yale’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Rhode Island: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Punt, from 62 yards out to 53PuntRhode Island: Punt, from 80 yards out to 80PuntYale: Punt, from 57 yards out to 60PuntRhode Island: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Punt, from 71 yards out to 54PuntRhode Island: Punt, from 86 yards out to 81PuntYale: Turned over on downs, from 53 yards out to 38DownsQ2Rhode Island: Punt, from 62 yards out to 54PuntYale: Interception, from 82 yards out to 84InterceptionRhode Island: Field goal, from 31 yards out to 31Field goalYale: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntRhode Island: Punt, from 91 yards out to 93PuntYale: Touchdown, from 36 yards out to 0TouchdownRhode Island: Field goal, from 35 yards out to 0Field goalYale: End of half, from 75 yards out to 1End of halfQ3Yale: Field goal, from 85 yards out to 15Field goalRhode Island: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Rhode Island: Punt, from 65 yards out to 67PuntYale: Turned over on downs, from 68 yards out to 66DownsRhode Island: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Touchdown, from 38 yards out to 0TouchdownRhode Island: Touchdown, from 42 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Turned over on downs, from 73 yards out to 37DownsRhode Island: End of game, from 63 yards out to 63End of game

From Yale’s side

Yale’s best moment: Hamel 48-yd field goal, Rhode Island leads 17-0 (Q2 9:47). It lifted Yale’s win chance by 34 points.

Too close to call on 49% of plays. The winner fell to 14%.

Box score

Rhode Island 41, Yale 23

Rhode Island covered +12.5 by 30.5. The total, 64, went over 48.5.

Rhode Island leaders

  • Passing Alex McClelland 11 of 16, 285 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Alex McClelland 13 for 92 yds; Gabe Winowich 9 for 12 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Marquis Buchanan 7 for 193 yds, 2 TD; Jamall Mensah 1 for 58 yds, 1 TD

Yale leaders

  • Passing Dante Reno 15 of 38, 105 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni 36 for 243 yds, 1 TD; Vann Hopping 6 for 25 yds
  • Receiving Jaxton Santiago 3 for 45 yds, 1 TD; Reid Jones 3 for 23 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Rhode Island · 3-3

Rated 106th in our preseason ratings, 154th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 13-10 vs Brown #215 of 668

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

Rhode Island won 13-10 vs Brown. Chance to win started at 70%, low 28%, high better than 99%.

L 18-22 @ North Carolina A&T #255 of 668

lost by 4 as a 24.5-point favorite

L 24-56 @ Stony Brook #166 of 668

lost by 32 as a 9.5-point favorite

Rhode Island lost 24-56 at Stony Brook. Chance to win started at 66%, low under 1%, high 82%.

W 31-10 vs Elon #178 of 668

won by 21 as an 8.5-point favorite

Rhode Island won 31-10 vs Elon. Chance to win started at 78%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

L 14-38 @ Temple #89 of 668

lost by 24 as a 14.5-point underdog

Rhode Island lost 14-38 at Temple. Chance to win started at 10%, low under 1%, high 14%.

W 34-7 @ Merrimack #216 of 668

won by 27 as a 21-point favorite

Rhode Island won 34-7 at Merrimack. Chance to win started at 89%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

Last 4 games

Yale · 3-1

Rated 211th in our preseason ratings, 182nd now, up 29 spots.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 28-7 vs Dartmouth #228 of 668

won by 21 as a 7-point favorite

Yale won 28-7 vs Dartmouth. Chance to win started at 80%, low 78%, high better than 99%.

W 41-24 vs Merrimack #229 of 668

won by 17 as a 14-point favorite

Yale won 41-24 vs Merrimack. Chance to win started at 88%, low 32%, high better than 99%.

L 25-38 @ Cornell #236 of 668

lost by 13 as a 14-point favorite

Yale lost 25-38 at Cornell. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 83%.

W 38-28 @ Holy Cross #238 of 668

won by 10 as a 21-point favorite

Yale won 38-28 at Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 91%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Yale

Wk 3: W 38-28 at Holy Cross▲10Holy CrossWk 4: L 25-38 at Cornell▼13CornellWk 5: W 41-24 vs Merrimack▲17MerrimackWk 6: W 28-7 vs Dartmouth▲21Dartmouth
  • Wk 3Wat Holy Cross38-28
  • Wk 4Lat Cornell25-38
  • Wk 5Wvs Merrimack41-24
  • Wk 6Wvs Dartmouth28-7

Rhode Island

Wk 1: L 14-38 at Temple▼24TempleWk 2: W 31-10 vs Elon▲21ElonWk 3: L 24-56 at Stony Brook▼32Stony Br…Wk 4: L 18-22 at North Carolina A&T▼4N. Carol…Wk 5: W 13-10 vs Brown▲3Brown
  • Wk 1Lat Temple14-38
  • Wk 2Wvs Elon31-10
  • Wk 3Lat Stony Brook24-56
  • Wk 4Lat North Carolina A&T18-22
  • Wk 5Wvs Brown13-10

Power rating by week

Rhode Island is rated 2.3 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-6-11Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6YaleRhode Island

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Yale’s chances here.

50-50Model · 60%Line · 84%Rhode IslandYale

Yale favored by 12.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Yale by 12.5, on the usual path until Q2 9:47

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Yale.

opened −10now −12.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 50.5now 48.5

Spread: −10 → −12.5 · Total: 50.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next