#11

Ayden Williams

Senior wide receiver for Mississippi State. 2025: 21 catches, 252 receiving yards.

WR · Mississippi State · Sr. · #11

6′3″ · 205 lb · Ridgeland, MS · Ridgeland HS (Ole Miss)

CFB Index 30 · #407 of 485 WRsHigh confidence

via hailstate.com ↗

The numbers

252

receiving yards · 2025

Best game: 4 rec, 69 yds, vs Texas

His career numbers, season by season

The story

Senior wide receiver for Mississippi State. 2025: 21 catches, 252 receiving yards.

Signed as a 4-star recruit to Ole Miss in 2023.
Transferred from Ole Miss to Mississippi State in 2025.
Tillman, Williams, Moye out (Sep 18) Reported

The full story, with sources

How he plays

Moves the chains on third down.

Yards / catch: 58th percentile.

The full scouting read

Next upSat Sep 26 · 7:45 pm ETvs MissouriDavis Wade StadiumMississippi State by 6.5

Ayden Williams

WR · Mississippi State · Sr · #11

Moves the chains on third down. Two head coaches in three seasons, at two different programs. The receipt on tape: 69 rec yds, 4 receptions against Texas, Week 9, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
game log

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Mississippi State	21	252	12.0	--
2024	Ole Miss	3	39	13.0	--
2023	Ole Miss	4	80	20.0	--
Career		28	371	13.2	--

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 34-17@ Southern Miss	2	17	8.5	10
Wk 2	W 24-20vs Arizona State	1	12	12.0	12
Wk 3	W 63-0vs Alcorn State	1	13	13.0	13
Wk 4	W 38-10vs Northern Illinois	1	3	3.0	3
Wk 5	L 34-41vs Tennessee	1	49	49.0	49
Wk 6	L 9-31@ Texas A&M	3	25	8.3	15
Wk 8	L 21-23@ Florida	1	3	3.0	3
Wk 9	L 38-45vs Texas	4	69	17.3	33	Season-high 69 yds
Wk 10	W 38-35@ Arkansas	1	-1	-1.0	0
Wk 11	L 21-41vs Georgia	1	7	7.0	7
Wk 12	L 27-49@ Missouri	1	12	12.0	12
Wk 14	L 19-38vs Ole Miss	2	13	6.5	7
Bowl	L 29-43vs Wake Forest	2	30	15.0	21
Total		21	252	11.8	49

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 10 · 2025

W 38–35

at Arkansas

1 rec · -1 yds

Edged out Arkansas on the road in a shootout.

With B. Shapen — 242 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT · QBR 72.2 · 16 rush yds (10 car) · A. Evans III — 16 rush yds (1 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 5 · Tennessee · 2&9 · Q4 · EPA +3.97Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 49 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST down
Week 2 · Arizona State · 3&7 · Q2 · EPA +2.48Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 12 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down
Week 9 · Texas · 1&15 · Q3 · EPA +2.22(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short left to #11 A.Williams caught at MSU33, for 18 yards to the MSU45 (#29 G.Littleton), 1ST DOWN
Week 9 · Texas · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +2.16(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short left to #11 A.Williams caught at MSU46, for 33 yards to the TEX29 (#4 J.McDonald), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TEX Personal Foul (#4 J.McDonald) 14 yards from TEX29 to TEX15, 1ST DOWN
Week 1 · Wake Forest · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +1.91No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short left to #11 A.Williams caught at MSU34, for 21 yards to the MSU47 (#3 K.Prunty; #45 N.Andersen), 1ST DOWN
Week 1 · Wake Forest · 3&2 · Q1 · EPA +1.83No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Taylor pass complete short left to #11 A.Williams caught at MSU49, for 9 yards to the Deacs46 (#45 N.Andersen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Week 9 · Texas · 2&7 · Q2 · EPA +1.65(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short left to #11 A.Williams caught at TEX49, for 11 yards to the TEX46 (#3 J.Guilbeau), 1ST DOWN
Week 10 · Arkansas · 2&9 · Q1 · EPA -1.25(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Shapen pass complete short left to #11 A.Williams caught at MSU48, for 1 yard loss to the MSU49 (#7 B.Shaw)
Week 6 · Texas A&M · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +1.25Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 15 yds to the TA&M 44 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Southern Miss · 3&3 · Q3 · EPA +0.64Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 10 yds to the USM 17 for a 1ST down

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2023Ole Miss11-2HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-leaning

2024Ole Miss10-3HC: Lane Kiffin · Balanced

2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

30Below cohort / limited sample #407 of 485?

High confidence10 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: catch rate (9th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Yards / catch#338 / 798 · 58th pct

12.1

Explosive rate#511 / 798 · 36th pct

7.7%

EPA / target#631 / 798 · 21st pct

0.19

TD rate#507 / 798 · 18th pct

0.0%

Catch rate#728 / 798 · 9th pct

53.8%

Box-score rates (5)

Long catch#248 / 558 · 55th pct

Yards / catch#339 / 558 · 39th pct

12.0

Rec yards#407 / 558 · 27th pct

252

Receptions#402 / 558 · 27th pct

Rec TDs#482 / 558 · 7th pct

Season trend

EPA / target— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Catch rate— first qualifying season

TD rate— first qualifying season

Yards / catch— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Receiving profile

Receiver profile · Targets, catch rate, and throw depth

How often he's targeted, and how well it works

21 rec · 252 yds · 0 TD

19 of 21 receptions matched to play-by-play

18 of 33 targets charted for true throw depth

Targets

3310% of team targets

Catch rate

58%19 of 33 targets

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

11% of targets (2)

50%catch rate

Air -2.5 · YAC 1.0 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

61% of targets (11)

64%catch rate

Air 5.8 · YAC 5.9 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

17% of targets (3)

33%catch rate

Air 12.0 · YAC 0.0 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

11% of targets (2)

0%catch rate

Air 29.0 avg

58% catch rate on 33 targets · 10% of the team's targets.

Situational

Situational · Share of own targets (PBP, 2025)

Third-down role

33%13 of his 39 targets came on third down · Receiver median is 24%

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Home8g	1.6	24.5	15.3	0.0
Road5g	1.6	11.2	6.2	0.0

First half vs Second half

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Weeks 1-77g	1.6	21.3	15.5	0.0
Weeks 8+6g	1.7	17.2	7.5	0.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Jeff Lebby

Pass share

44.6%

91 pass / 113 run

Plays / game

68.0

3 games

Team sack rate

4.8%

105 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Rotational

Earning real snaps in the rotation without a starting job.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

30 · #407 of 485 WRs

Former four-star. Now #407 at the position.

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-SEC

Based on 2025: #51 of 58 SEC WRs

How the All-SEC estimate is computed

15% estimated, 95% confidence interval 13–17%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

The receiver room · Mississippi State

#3Anthony Evans IIIWR · Sr.831 receiving yards · 2025
#2Marquis JohnsonWR · Sr.345 receiving yards · 2025
#11Ayden WilliamsWR · Sr.252 receiving yards · 2025
#13Sanfrisco MageeWR · So.80 receiving yards · 2025
Gracen HarrisWR · Fr.4 receiving yards · 2025

10 more on the roster · Mississippi State team page

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Ayden Williams

20233 games

202513 games

Career stats

Game log

Signature game

Signature plays

2025 snapshot

Receiving profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Rotational

How he plays

DNA match

Possession Receiver

Background

The receiver room · Mississippi State