Sophomore quarterback for BYU. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
6′2″ · 230 lb · Murrieta, CA
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
On production he ranks #27 of 146 QBs; on reputation he is a projected national-award finalist. The gap between those two numbers is the story.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 217 pass yds, 3 TD, 37 rush yds, vs Arizona
The play that turned itSwung BYU from 24% to 81% to win.BYU at Arizona · 33-27
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Sophomore quarterback for BYU. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
Aura™ · Him Watch
+14aura tax
71st pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=240
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans read him warmer than the wider college football conversation does — a gap of 40.8 points in belief.
The BYU Cougars claim the spotlight as Big 12 favorites, with sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier and dynamic running back LJ Martin poised to lead one of college football’s most compelling teams into the upcoming season. After…
Also worth knowing:
“Bear Bachmeier wins the natty with a gazillion passing yards and a million rushing yards.”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Fans are debating Bear Bachmeier's throwing abilities, with some insisting he can throw effectively while others remain skeptical about his passing game.
Based on 2 comments across 1 thread · Aug 1, 2026
Bear Bachmeier
Pushes it downfield on every look. Bear Bachmeier arrived at BYU from Stanford. His first career honor landed in 2025: Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year. The receipt on tape: 227 pass yds against Colorado State, Week 3, 2026.
642 PASS YDS · 6 PASS TD · 67 RUSH YDS
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
FRESHMAN HONORS
Freshman recognition (2025)
7 mention(s)
Badges
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 63-7vs Utah Tech | 16/20 | 198 | 3 | 0 | 9.9 | — | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 28-17vs Arizona | 16/26 | 217 | 3 | 0 | 8.3 | 90.7 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 41-23@ Colorado State | 12/16 | 227 | 0 | 1 | 14.2 | 62.6 | Season-high 227 yds |
| Total | 44/62 | 642 | 6 | 1 | 10.8 | 76.7 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 28–17
vs Arizona
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +227 passing yards, +1 interception.
Season context · Team result + system
2 seasons under Kalani Sitake, all run-leaning offenses — 15-2 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Elite: yards / att (97th percentile). Strength: rush tds (84th percentile). Concern: pass yards (20th percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
10.9710 of 126 QBsSack rate
3.1%38 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (38 of 126 QBs) and still 10 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 71.0% completion on 62 attempts · 59% of attempts thrown 0–9 air yds.
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 55 dropbacks75Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
60.9%100th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -2.7% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
10.18100th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.7 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
2.0%95th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.2% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (9 of 64 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 208 | 3.0 | 9.1 | 0.0 |
| Road1g | 227 | 0.0 | 14.2 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 214 | 2.0 | 10.8 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Kalani Sitake
Pass share
44.4%
95 pass / 119 run
Plays / game
71.3
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
Heisman market0.9%full market ›
In the mix for All-Big 12
Based on 2025: #4 of 17 Big 12 QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Elite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable.
CFB Index positional classification
Player DNA
Elite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Anthony Brown’s 2021 season.
Matches Anthony on
Differs from Anthony on
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Bailey Zappe’s path through Western Kentucky.
Matches Bailey on
As a freshman, his production profile tracks closest to Mason Heintschel's freshman season at Pittsburgh (2025).
Matches Mason on
Differs from Mason on
Player DNA
Heisman futures · sportsbook market
#19 in market ▲ from #21 · 6 books
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #2 — top-tier Heisman contention all season.