CFB Zeitgeist Score
60
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 71st percentile.
Jack Velling
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
359 REC YDS · 36 REC · 3 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Michigan State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Tight end · Michigan State
Returning around him
- 69% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 2 Michigan State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -18 net (28 in / 46 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Michigan State · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #38 · 2026 recruiting class #57
TE · MICHIGAN STATE · BIG TEN
Jack Velling
- 4
- #12
- 6-5 | 245 lb
- Seattle, WA
Heisman Heat
#3260
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
2022
Oregon State · TE
—
2023
Oregon State · TE
—
★
2025
Michigan State · TE
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+28%
Up 28% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8667 | No. 846 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (359).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8667
#846 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jack Velling
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jack Velling
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving TDs
3
count
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #222 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 58th
Why it matters
#222 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 3 TDs on 36 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 3 (58th)
HIGH · n=36 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#342 / 531
- Yards per reception#419 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 4 at USC — 1 receiving_tds
Result L 31-45
The week the volume broke through — stacked 1 td at USC.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 11g
359Rec yards
36Receptions
3Rec TDs
Per game
32.6Rec yards
3Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
424.3Rec yards
43Receptions
4Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 359): needs 170.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 359): needs 320.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 36): needs 12/game over remaining 2.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 36): needs 22/game over remaining 2.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 2.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 3): needs 3.5/game over remaining 2.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Jack Velling already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
36 94th
YDS
359 89th
YPR
10.0 54th
TD
3 91st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 23-6vs Western Michigan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 3 | W 41-24vs Youngstown State | 6 | 70 | 11.7 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 4 | L 31-45@ USC | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wk 6 | L 27-38@ Nebraska | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 1 | 19 | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-38vs UCLA | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-38@ Indiana | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 9 | L 20-31vs Michigan | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 10 | L 20-23@ Minnesota | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 12 | L 10-28vs Penn State | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 13 | L 17-20@ Iowa | 8 | 88 | 11.0 | 0 | 21 | Season-high 88 yds |
| Wk 14 | W 38-28vs Maryland | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 1 | 28 | |
| Total | 36 | 359 | 8.5 | 3 | 28 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Oregon State10-3HC: Jonathan Smith · Run-heavy
2023Oregon State8-5HC: Jonathan Smith · Run-leaning
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 36 | 359 | 10.0 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Oregon State | 29 | 438 | 15.1 | 8 | -- |
| 2022 | Oregon State | 16 | 281 | 17.6 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 81 | 1,078 | 13.3 | 14 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 36 | #29/475 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 359 | #51/475 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 3 | #45/475 | 91st pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 10.0 | #220/475 | 54th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 11.6% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 28 | #149/475 | 69th pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 6.4% | #36/468 | 93rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 6.4% | #54/468 | 89th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 6.3% | #96/468 | 80th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 6.1% | #47/468 | 90th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 6.0% | #40/468 | 92nd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 5.4% | #132/468 | 72nd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 3.0 | 31.5 | 8.5 | 0.2 |
| Road5g | 3.6 | 34.0 | 8.5 | 0.4 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 4.0 | 47.0 | 9.4 | 0.3 |
| Losses8g | 3.0 | 27.2 | 8.1 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 2.6 | 25.4 | 7.2 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.8 | 38.7 | 9.5 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
60Solid starter
Elite: receptions (82nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jack VellingMichigan StateJoshua LongEastern Michigan· 96% simChamon MetayerArizona State· 93% simRichie AndersonFresno State· 91% sim
Receptions
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Yards / catch
Long catch
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Anthony Landphere’s 2024 season.
Anthony Landphere
88%match
All-AAC
#2
Tanner McLachlan
NFL Rd 6
83%
#3
Joe Royer
All-Big 12NFL Rd 5
80%
#4
Will Mallory
All-ACCNFL Rd 5
80%
#5
Luke Schoonmaker
All-Big TenNFL Rd 2 · Pk 27
78%
Matches Anthony on
Height
EPA / play (adj)
Reception volume
Differs from Anthony on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to D'Andre Rogers's senior season at TCU (2025).
D'Andre Rogers
82%match
#2
Gavin Bartholomew
NFL Rd 6
81%
#3
Matthew Hibner
NFL Rd 4
81%
#4
Trey Knox
All-SEC
79%
#5
Jyrin Johnson
All-MAC
76%
Matches D'Andre on
Total EPA (college ability)
Weight
Yards / reception
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jonathan Smith
Pass share
49.7%
378 pass / 382 run
Plays / game
63.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.2%
303 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2023
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2025era →
Jonathan Smith
Michigan State
Coaching transition mid-career: Mel Tucker → Jonathan Smith. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSeattle, WA
Height6'5"
Weight245 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey12
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMichigan State
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Big Ten
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Michigan State | Big Ten | TE |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan State | TE4 | #3260 | #3258 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Oregon State | TE4 | #293 | #333 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2022 | Oregon State | TE4 | #440 | #406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 12 | 6-5 | 245 lb | Seattle, WA |
| 2024 | Michigan State | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 12 | 6-5 | 245 lb | Seattle, WA |
| 2023 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | TE | 4 | No. 12 | 6-5 | 245 lb | Seattle, WA |
| 2022 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | TE | 4 | No. 12 | 6-5 | 245 lb | Seattle, WA |