Jaxson Kincaide

Senior running back for Western Michigan. 2021: 480 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD, 3 catches.

RB · Western Michigan · Sr. · #7

5′9″ · 195 lb · Fort Lauderdale, FL

CFB Index 44 · #168 of 315 RBsHigh confidenceWestern Michigan 2021 alumnus

The story

4 running back for Western Michigan. 2021: 480 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD, 3 catches.

Signed as a 2-star recruit to Nevada in 2016.

His career, year by year

Recruiting

2★

RB recruit

No. 2568 nationally · Signed with Nevada

No college snaps yet.

His career numbers, season by season

How it ended

Six seasons at Western Michigan, 1,571 rushing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

He was on the field for 6 seasons. That is rarer than it sounds.

201612 games

Signed with Nevada2-star out of St. Thomas Aquinas

Career arc

Recruit

★★

#2568 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2016–2021

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Coaching lineage · 2016–2021

2 coaches

2016

P.J. Fleck

Western Michigan

2017–2021

Tim Lester

Western Michigan

era →

Coaching transition mid-career: P.J. Fleck → Tim Lester. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

2021 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2016Nevada5-7HC: Brian Polian · Run-leaning

2017Nevada3-9HC: Jay Norvell · Pass-leaning

2018Nevada8-5HC: Jay Norvell · Balanced

2019Nevada7-6HC: Jay Norvell · Balanced

2020Western Michigan4-2HC: Tim Lester · Run-leaning

2021Western Michigan8-5HC: Tim Lester · Run-heavy, fast tempo

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

44Rotational starter #168 of 315?

High confidence12 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: rec yards (7th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

TD rate#124 / 409 · 70th pct

6.0%

Success rate#137 / 409 · 67th pct

49.4%

Yards / carry#152 / 409 · 63rd pct

5.7

EPA / carry#186 / 409 · 55th pct

0.20

Explosive rate#254 / 409 · 38th pct

6.0%

Box-score rates (7)

Yards / carry#78 / 343 · 76th pct

5.7

Rush TDs#125 / 343 · 59th pct

Rush yards#183 / 343 · 47th pct

480

Carries#209 / 343 · 39th pct

Long run#263 / 343 · 23rd pct

Receptions#285 / 331 · 13th pct

Rec yards#309 / 331 · 7th pct

Season trend

EPA / carry— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Success rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Explosive rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Yards / carry— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

TD rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2021 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home6g	37.7	6.1	0.5
Road6g	24.8	4.2	0.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-77g	21.3	4.2	0.3
Weeks 8+5g	45.2	6.5	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Lance Taylor

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2021

Part-time starter

Splitting first-team reps — starts some weeks, rotates others.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

44 · #168 of 315 RBs

Two-star recruit. Now #168 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2021	Western Michigan	84	480	5.7	5	--
2020	Western Michigan	30	197	6.6	1	--
2019	Nevada	32	146	4.6	1	--
2018	Nevada	26	119	4.6	2	--
2017	Nevada	63	295	4.7	0	--
2016	Nevada	78	334	4.3	3	--
Career		313	1,571	5.0	12	--

Season	Team
2021	Western Michigan	3	11	3.7	0	--
2020	Western Michigan	5	44	8.8	0	--
2019	Nevada	8	61	7.6	0	--
2018	Nevada	10	111	11.1	2	--
2017	Nevada	13	56	4.3	1	--
2016	Nevada	7	88	12.6	0	--
Career		46	371	8.1	3	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2021

W 44–41

at Pittsburgh

18 rush yds (5 car)

Edged out Pittsburgh on the road in a shootout.

With K. Eleby — 337 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 85.5 · -20 rush yds (7 car) · N. Mihalic — 1 TOT · 46 AVG · 2 IN 20

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 7 · Kent State · 2&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.19Jaxson Kincaide run for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Mihalic KICK)
Week 11 · Akron · 1&15 · Q1 · EPA +3.09Jaxson Kincaide 27 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)
Week 10 · Central Michigan · 3&4 · Q3 · EPA +2.84Jaxson Kincaide run for 20 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Nevada · 1&7 · Q2 · EPA +2.20Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds for a TD, (Parker Sampson KICK)
Week 1 · Nevada · 1&7 · Q4 · EPA +2.20Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds for a TD, (Parker Sampson KICK)
Week 1 · Nevada · 2&6 · Q4 · EPA +1.55Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Nevada · 2&6 · Q2 · EPA +1.53Jaxson Kincaide run for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST down
Week 11 · Akron · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +1.48Jaxson Kincaide run for 18 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST down
Week 8 · Toledo · 3&4 · Q1 · EPA -1.31Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 43
Week 4 · San José State · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +1.12Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2021 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	L 14-47@ Michigan	1	3	3.0	0	3
Wk 2	W 28-0vs Illinois State	4	11	2.8	0	7
Wk 3	W 44-41@ Pittsburgh	5	18	3.6	0	6
Wk 4	W 23-3vs San José State	7	41	5.9	0	12
Wk 5	W 24-17@ Buffalo	2	8	4.0	0	5
Wk 6	L 20-45vs Ball State	2	7	3.5	0	5
Wk 7	W 64-31vs Kent State	9	61	6.8	2	26
Wk 8	L 15-34@ Toledo	10	42	4.2	0	12
Wk 10	L 30-42vs Central Michigan	6	36	6.0	0	20
Wk 11	W 45-40vs Akron	6	70	11.7	1	27	Season-high 70 yds
Wk 12	L 21-22@ Eastern Michigan	6	35	5.8	0	13
Wk 13	W 42-21@ Northern Illinois	9	43	4.8	0	17
Total		67	375	5.2	3	27