Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-23vs UAB | 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | Season-high 8 tackles |
| Wk 2 | L 27-31vs Duke | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 48-10vs Southern Illinois | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 14 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
#7
Matthew Bailey
Senior defensive back for Illinois. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
6′2″ · 225 lb · Moline, IL · Moline
CFB Index 58 · #201 of 544 safetiesLow confidence
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
1
interception · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 1 INT, 2 tackles, vs Southern Illinois
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Senior defensive back for Illinois. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
- Signed as a 3-star recruit to Illinois in 2022.
- 1 interception in 2024. Then 1 in 2026.
Buzz vs Tape
Fans warmer than rivals
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
30.4own fans
0rival fans
Illinois football just got the best possible news in the middle of transfer portal chaos: Xavier Scott is returning for the 2026 season , and that changes the entire outlook for the Illini defense. With Scott back alongside Matthew Bailey…
Also worth knowing:
Matthew Bailey
Plays like an extra linebacker near the line. He has spent five seasons in the Illinois secondary. The receipt on tape: 8 tackles against UAB, Week 1, 2026.
14 TACKLES · 0 SACKS
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
- season totals
- positional archetype classification
- seasons on the roster
- game log
His career
He was on the field for 5 seasons. That is rarer than it sounds.
20227 games
- Signed with Illinois3-star out of Moline
Career arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Illinois
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Coaching lineage · 2022–2026
1 coach2022–2026
Illinois
Played his entire career under Bret Bielema.
Career stats
Game log
Game by game
Matthew Bailey's 2026 production
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Signature game
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2026
W 48–10
2026 snapshot
Since week 2: +2 tackles.
Season context · Team result + system
5 seasons under Bret Bielema — 34-20 over that span.
2022Illinois8-5HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2023Illinois5-7HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced
2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2026Illinois2-1HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced, slow tempo
Where this defender ranks vs the field
Box-score production percentiles vs the position cohort
Medium confidence
Concern: tackles for loss (16th percentile).
Box-score production (7)
Percentiles are versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score production. There are no play-by-play efficiency bars here: CFBD's play-value model credits offensive players only, so no defensive EPA exists to rank.
Splits & context
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bret Bielema
Pass share
48.8%
81 pass / 85 run
Plays / game
55.3
3 games
Team sack rate
2.2%
91 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Awards
Player standing · 2025
Impact starter
Tackle volume for the position among the most productive regulars.
Recognition
Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Production · CFB Index Score
58 · #201 of 544 safeties
Three-star recruit. Now #201 at the position.
2026 outlook
Outside shot for All-Big Ten
Based on 2025: #32 of 77 Big Ten DBs
How the All-Big Ten estimate is computed
15% estimated, 95% confidence interval 13–17%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
How he plays
Play style
Lives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker.
CFB Index positional classification
Starter
The No. 1,774 recruit in the country is starting in the secondary in the Big Ten as a senior.
DNA match
Player DNA
Box Safety
Lives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Daniel Scott’s 2021 season.
87%match
NFL Rd 5
Matches Daniel on
PD rate
TFL rate
Weight
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Kyle Efford's senior season at Georgia Tech (2025).
Matches Kyle on
Class year
Height
Tackle volume
Player DNA
Players who play like Matthew Bailey
Background
Two-Time All-Big Ten Illinois Record - Tackles in a Bowl Game (13) University of Illinois Graduate 2026 - Illinois Team Captain Chuck Bednarik Award Watch List Athlon Preseason All-Big Ten Third Team Phil Steele Preseason All-Big Ten Third Team Lott IMPACT Trophy Watch List 2025 - Illinois 2025…
The secondary · Illinois
- #7Matthew Bailey76 tackles · 2025
- #22Deuce Fillmore39 tackles · 2025
- #16Tanner Heckel36 tackles · 2025
- #6Jaheim Clarke30 tackles · 2025
- Mac Resetich19 tackles · 2025
16 more on the roster · Illinois team page
Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology