CFB Zeitgeist Score
75
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 90th percentile.
Shomari Lawrence
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,021 RUSH YDS · 7 RUSH TD · 199 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Missouri State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Missouri State
Returning around him
- Transfer portal: +8 net (19 in / 11 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Missouri State · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #129 · 2026 recruiting class #133
RB · MISSOURI STATE · CONFERENCE USA
Shomari Lawrence
- 4
- #2
- 6-0 | 210 lb
- Pompano Beach, FL
Heisman Heat
#3568
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025+80%
Up 80% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida International -> Missouri State | Immediate |
| 2023 | South Dakota -> Florida International | 2-star | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (1021).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Shomari Lawrence
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Shomari Lawrence
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 13g
1,021Rush yards
199Carries
7Rush TDs
Per game
78.5Rush yards
15Carries
1Rush TDs
Final
1,021Rush yards
199Carries
7Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 1,021.
✓ Hit 1,000-yard season · finished with 1,021.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Shomari Lawrence's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Missouri State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
199 96th
YDS
1,021 95th
YPC
5.1 65th
TD
7 92nd
Receiving
REC
19 86th
YDS
118 75th
YPR
6.2 41st
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 13-73@ USC | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 2 | W 21-20@ Marshall | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 0 | 17 | |
| Wk 3 | L 10-28vs SMU | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 4 | W 42-10vs UT Martin | 8 | 65 | 8.1 | 1 | 50 | |
| Wk 5 | L 22-27vs Western Kentucky | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 1 | 32 | |
| Wk 7 | W 22-20@ Middle Tennessee | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 9 | W 24-17@ New Mexico State | 21 | 97 | 4.6 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 10 | W 28-21vs Florida International | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 2 | 42 | |
| Wk 11 | W 21-17@ Liberty | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 | 17 | |
| Wk 12 | W 38-24vs UTEP | 25 | 109 | 4.4 | 1 | 14 | |
| Wk 13 | L 34-41@ Kennesaw State | 20 | 173 | 8.7 | 1 | 70 | Season-high 173 yds |
| Wk 14 | L 30-42vs Louisiana Tech | 13 | 84 | 6.5 | 1 | 56 | |
| Bowl | L 28-34@ Arkansas State | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 | 12 | |
| Total | 199 | 1021 | 5.2 | 7 | 70 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Florida International4-8HC: Mike MacIntyre · Balanced
2025Missouri State7-6HC: Ryan Beard · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri State | 199 | 1,021 | 5.1 | 7 | -- |
| 2023 | Florida International | 125 | 566 | 4.5 | 4 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 324 | 1,587 | 4.9 | 11 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri State | 19 | 118 | 6.2 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Florida International | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 27 | 165 | 6.1 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1,021 | #36/735 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 7 | #62/739 | 92nd pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.1 | #257/735 | 65th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 19 | #78/552 | 86th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 118 | #138/548 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.04 | #309/362 | 15th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 186 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 25.8% | #40/738 | 95th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 199 | #28/739 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 70 | #62/733 | 92nd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 13 | #347/540 | 36th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 6.2 | #327/548 | 41st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 52.4% | #9/738 | 99th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 31.7% | #23/738 | 97th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 31.0% | #34/738 | 96th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 26.8% | #36/738 | 95th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 14.9% | #71/738 | 91st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 14.0% | #94/738 | 87th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 5.2% | #144/738 | 81st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #78/256 | 70th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 80.7 | 5.8 | 1.0 |
| Road7g | 76.7 | 4.8 | 0.1 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 76.4 | 5.3 | 0.6 |
| Losses6g | 81.0 | 5.2 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 58.0 | 4.7 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 102 | 5.9 | 0.8 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
75All-Conference
Elite: carries (91st). Strength: rush yards (89th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.04Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Shomari LawrenceMissouri StateJoe JacksonKansas State· 94% simDominic RichardsonTulsa· 91% simJevyon DuckerTemple· 91% sim
Carries
Rush yards
Long run
Rush TDs
Receptions
Rec yards
Yards / carry
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Spencer Brown’s 2020 season.
Spencer Brown
77%match
#2
TJ Green
74%
#3
Samuel Brown V
69%
#4
Brenden Knox
All-Conference USA
62%
#5
Jalen Berger
66%
Matches Spencer on
Height
Weight
Class year
Through 5 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Andrew Body’s path through Alabama State.
Andrew Body
99%match
#2
Chuba Hubbard
All-Big 12NFL Rd 4
98%
#3
Larry Rountree III
All-SECNFL Rd 6
96%
#4
Demie Sumo
95%
#5
Tate Carney
94%
Matches Andrew on
Yards per carry
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Jaquez Moore's graduate season at Duke (2025).
Jaquez Moore
61%match
#2
Reggie Love III
59%
#3
Roman Hemby
All-Big Ten
55%
#4
Will Nixon
52%
#5
Kevorian Barnes
50%
Matches Jaquez on
Rush TD rate
Weight
Differs from Jaquez on
Total rush EPA (college ability) (lower)
Height (higher)
Yards / reception (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ryan Beard
Pass share
51.9%
433 pass / 401 run
Plays / game
64.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
13.0%
307 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
—
Missouri State
2025era →
Ryan Beard
Missouri State
Played his entire career under Ryan Beard.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPompano Beach, FL
Height6'0"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey2
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMissouri State
ConferenceConference USA
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Florida International | RB4 | #3568 | #3713 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Conference USA |
| 2023 | Florida International | RB4 | #1440 | #2158 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Conference USA |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri State | Conference USA | RB | 4 | No. 2 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 2024 | Florida International | Conference USA | RB | 4 | No. 2 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 2023 | Florida International | Conference USA | RB | 4 | No. 2 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Pompano Beach, FL |