Next game: vs Georgia State
Georgia State’s best edge on App State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
App State offense against Georgia State defense
Georgia State offense against App State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.19 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 154 / 237 | 65.0 | 1915 #30 FBS | 8.1 | 9 | 4 | 142.0 | 49 | 47.2 | 7.4 | 4.8 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 237 pass attempts, 50 carries and 1 catch in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Malachi Singleton's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.15 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 19 / 26 | 73.1 | 172 | 6.6 | 2 | 1 | 146.3 | — | 51.3 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| +0.59 EPA/play | 6 | — | 5 / 12 | 41.7 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 | 1 | 64.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 86 | 431 | 5.0 | 8 #26 FBS | 32 | 11.8 | 18.8 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 86 carries and 8 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Lewis does a little of everything without one standout trait. Price is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 43th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate9.3% 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaquari Lewis's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.16 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 32 | 151 | 4.7 | 0 | 39 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| -0.47 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 24 | 70 | 2.9 | 2 | 18 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.61 EPA/play | — | 8 | 36 | 560 #52 FBS | 15.6 | 4 #70 FBS | 54 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 36 catches and 1 carry in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR III wins underneath on volume and route precision. Turner-Bradshaw is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume36 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception15.8 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sam Pickett III's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.04 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 34 | 364 | 10.7 | 0 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 34 catches and 3 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Branch wins underneath on volume and route precision. Turner-Bradshaw is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume34 77th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nate Branch's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.71 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 23 | 310 | 13.5 | 2 | 42 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 23 catches and 1 carry in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Chris Lofton's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.05 EPA/play | 34 | — | 28 | 299 | 10.7 | 6 #23 FBS | 58 | |
Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 28 catches in 7 games. More catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Acord shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Payne is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception9.1 bottom 31th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 94th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joshua Acord's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.18 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 27 | 257 | 9.5 | 1 | 30 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 27 catches in 7 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Darrin Fugitt's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.95 EPA/play | 81 | — | 19 | 227 | 11.9 | 1 | 33 | |
Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Leon moves the chains on third down. Turner-Bradshaw is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception10.1 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jose Leon's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.44 EPA/play | 19 | 6 | 14 | 185 | 13.2 | 0 | 36 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 14 catches in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Jamel Howse's full player page | ||||||||
| +1.31 EPA/play | 16 | 5 | 10 | 156 | 15.6 | 1 | 28 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.67 EPA/play | 13 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 1 | 16 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.17 EPA/play | 85 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 | 14 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 92 | — | 22 | 9 | 8 #50 FBS | 4.5 #60 FBS | 7 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate36.4% 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Anthony Mebane's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 8 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aaron Clark's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 41 | 8 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 5 #38 FBS | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 20 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate30.0% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caleb Sandstrom's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 96 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ricky Lolohea's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 94 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.9% 60th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caleb Pitts's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 33 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 1.5 | 0 | 6 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.5% bottom 38th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aiden Benton's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 50 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jehchys Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ki'Shawn Harvey's full player page | |||||||
| 93 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | |
| 45 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 10 | 8 | 63 | 32 | 31 | 5 | 1.5 | 4 | 2 #51 FBS |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — 63 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.3% 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume63 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Colton Phares's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 15 | 8 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 48 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Alex Mitchell's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 31 | — | 31 | 18 | 13 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate1.6% bottom 14th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marquis Lane-Owens's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 5 | 7 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.5% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume26 bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carson Sloan's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 13 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keshawn Thomas's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 25 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 50 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume50 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kaleb Purdy's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 41 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.9% bottom 35th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Devin Henderson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 8 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.4% 68th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Juan Berchal's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 31 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Khalil Conley's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | — | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Ja'Torian Mack's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.8% 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ja'Den Mcburrows's full player page | |||||||
| 20 | — | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | — | 12 | 6 #43 FBS | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 20 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 83 | 8 | 13/17 | 76.5 | 22/22 | 61 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 40 | 7 | 39 | 1637 | 42 | 66 | 13 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.16 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 6 | 130 | 21.7 | 0 | 51 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.67 EPA/play | 13 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 17 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.95 EPA/play | 81 | — | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 | 10 |
Biggest plays from App State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in App State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:03 · James Madison down 7, ties itCamden Coleman runs 6 yards for a touchdownJames Madison at App State, week 8Q4, 0:03 · James Madison 31, App State 310:03Game-tying touchdown for James Madison with 0:03 left0:03Game-tying touchdown for James Madison with 0:03 leftGame-tying touchdown for James Madison with 0:03 leftC.Coleman rush middle for 6 yards gain to the APP00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 5:52 · App State breaks the tieHenry Hasselbeck finds Luke Douglas for a 4-yard touchdownJames Madison at App State, week 8Q4, 5:52 · App State 31, James Madison 24Go-ahead touchdown for App State in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for App State in the fourth quarterH.Hasselbeck pass complete short right to L.Douglas caught at JMU00, for 4 yards to the JMU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 11:47 · Coastal Carolina down 7, ties itDeuce Bailey finds Robby Washington for a 71-yard touchdownApp State at Coastal Carolina, week 7Q2, 11:47 · Coastal Carolina 14, App State 147171-yard touchdown pass7171-yard touchdown pass71-yard touchdown passD.Bailey pass complete deep middle to R.Washington caught at APP33, for 71 yards to the APP00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q2, 14:17 · App State down 4, takes the leadMalachi Singleton runs 4 yards for a touchdownApp State at East Carolina, week 2Q2, 14:17 · App State 10, East Carolina 7App State took the lead in the second quarterApp State took the lead in the second quarterM.Singleton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ECU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Sun Belt Conference - Q1, 3:50 · App State breaks the tieJaquari Lewis runs 1 yard for a touchdownApp State at Coastal Carolina, week 7Q1, 3:50 · App State 14, Coastal Carolina 7App State took the lead in the first quarterApp State took the lead in the first quarterJ.Lewis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CCU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 13:15 · App State down 8, ties itHenry Hasselbeck finds Chris Lofton for a 5-yard touchdownJames Madison at App State, week 8Q4, 13:15 · App State 21, James Madison 21▲22%App State’s chance to win, 14% to 36%▲22%App State’s chance to win, 14% to 36%Chris Lofton 5 yd pass from Henry Hasselbeck (Malachi Singleton Pass to Sam Pickett III for Two-Point Conversion)▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
App State lost to Old Dominion after being 72% to win; the closest win was at Coastal Carolina, down to 13%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave App State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · App State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · App StateColton Phares leads App State with 63 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+25 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
App State fields a limited offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
App State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 15%) and field position (O) (top 25%); the crux lives in rushing EPA, where App State sits at the 8th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
App State is worth +5.0 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 64th percentile of 133 programs
77% at home, 48% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (34-10 home, 24-26 away). Interval ±3.6.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, App State has beaten the number by +1.1 more at home than away over 104 games. That is inside the ±5.8 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Kidd Brewer Stadium seats 30,000 and has averaged 111% full (33,201, 28 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 263 miles trip since 2018, the 19th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. 16% of the 2026 roster (24 of 154 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 54 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatDavion Dozier is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
- Deep threatDavid Larkins is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatJaden Barnes is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Jaquari Lewis and Ja'Quez Cross split the carries (85/116 vs 31/116) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Sam Pickett III (WR) and Darrin Fugitt (TE) split the targets (56/92 vs 36/92) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How App State actually scores
41st percentile quality, 48th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
App State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 47th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 26th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does App State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
33rd percentile success on standard downs, 49th on passing downs — a 16-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
App State by half
1st-half offense ranks 49th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 43rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of App State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.10; 37th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.61 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How App State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), App State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.8% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 236-play sample) — mid-pack, 98 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), App State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.3% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 206-play sample) — mid-pack, 89 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 29% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
2 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 7 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 24% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
8 interceptions of 33 disrupted passes (25 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags have favored them: 55 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 50 committed, 46 yards to the good.
430 penalty yards committed vs. 476 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · App State
Most similar programs · App StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
App State’s slide has precedent — and 2 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 47°, between 38° and 59° in about 7 in 10 games (35 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 68°, and 8 in 10 ran between 50° and 79° (56 of 58 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.