Next game: vs TCU
TCU’s best edge on Arizona is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Arizona offense against TCU defense
TCU offense against Arizona defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.38 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 199 / 269 | 74.0 | 2464 #7 FBS | 9.2 | 19 #10 FBS | 4 | 171.3 | 66 | 82.8 | 8.8 | 7.2 | |
Yards by week → Pocket surgeonHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #17 right now. The rare part: he puts it wherever he wants — and the offense moves when he drops back, too This week's matchup — QB Fifita picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Dampier is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Completion %74.6% 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Total pass EPA (college ability)121.2 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Noah Fifita's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -4.01 EPA/play | 7 | 4 | 10 / 15 | 66.7 | 112 | 7.5 | 0 | 2 | 102.7 | — | 96.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.06 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 89 | 321 | 3.6 | 7 #36 FBS | 20 | 23.3 | 8.1 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 89 carries and 12 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Reescano does a little of everything without one standout trait. Parker is the one who beats you as a runner and a receiver. Season receipt Yards / carry3.8 bottom 10th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate7.9% 88th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kedrick Reescano's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.03 EPA/play | 44 | 7 | 39 | 263 | 6.7 | 2 | 58 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.28 EPA/play | 24 | 8 | 36 | 246 | 6.8 | 2 | 40 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +1.50 EPA/play | 17 | 7 | 34 | 675 #24 FBS | 19.9 | 6 #23 FBS | 94 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Boom-or-bustStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 34 catches in 7 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Mizell beats you over the top. Whittemore is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception20.8 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.5 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaiah Mizell's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +1.03 EPA/play | 12 | 5 | 22 | 314 | 14.3 | 4 #70 FBS | 44 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 22 catches and 2 carries in 5 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Spivey wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Whittemore is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt TD rate18.2% 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tre Spivey's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.50 EPA/play | 18 | 8 | 21 | 280 | 13.3 | 3 | 42 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. This week's matchup — WR Phelps wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Whittemore is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt TD rate14.3% 79th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception12.0 bottom 34th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brandon Phelps's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.35 EPA/play | 5 | 4 | 21 | 260 | 12.4 | 0 | 55 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine This week's matchup — WR Richardson moves the chains on third down. Whittemore is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.7 bottom 41th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gio Richardson's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.33 EPA/play | 11 | 6 | 17 | 207 | 12.2 | 1 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Chris Hunter's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 20 | 8 | 14 | 152 | 10.9 | 1 | 41 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Smith moves the chains on third down. Whittemore is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.3 bottom 37th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume14 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Smith's full player page | ||||||||
| +1.73 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 7 | 107 | 15.3 | 0 | 32 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +1.19 EPA/play | 14 | 3 | 6 | 86 | 14.3 | 0 | 34 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.16 EPA/play | 87 | 4 | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 2 | 12 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Powell shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Andrews is the one who creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Season receipt Yards / reception5.8 bottom 8th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 17th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tyler Powell's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.55 EPA/play | 8 | 4 | 7 | 75 | 10.7 | 1 | 33 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.17 EPA/play | 84 | 4 | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 0 | 21 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 18 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Mays Pese's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 3 | 8 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.8% bottom 39th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tre Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Leroy Palu's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 42 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate31.8% 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dominic Lolesio's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 38 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kevin Moorer Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 27 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 41 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 44 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 51 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 96 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 6 | 8 | 46 | 19 | 27 | 3 | 0.5 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 46 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.5% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Taye Brown's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 48 | 8 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Cooper Blomstrom's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 7 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 6.5 | 5 #38 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume28 bottom 29th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate17.9% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chase Kennedy's full player page | |||||||||
| 10 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| — | 5 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 13 | 7 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 38 tackles in 7 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Cam Chapa's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 37 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.4% bottom 38th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Malcolm Hartzog's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Lee Molette III's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 35 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 30 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume30 bottom 46th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Quinn Olson's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 23 | 8 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate21.7% 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Gavin Hunter's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 8 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jay'Vion Cole's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 12 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.5% bottom 35th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dwight Bootle II's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 9 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Tyrese Boss's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 19 | 8 | 9/13 | 69.2 | 33/34 | 60 | 53 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 8 | 23 | 975 | 42.4 | 57 | 9 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 20 | 8 | 6 | 96 | 16 | 1 | 69 |
Biggest plays from Arizona’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Arizona’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 2:05 · Washington State up 7Washington State scores a touchdownArizona at Washington State, week 4Q1, 2:05 · Washington State 14, Arizona 0Pick-sixPick-sixN.Fifita pass intercepted by J.Bal at ARIZ25 J.Bal return 25 yards to the ARIZ00 touchdown penalty ARIZ UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting WSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting, kick good▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q1, 5:03 · Arizona up 4Lee Molette III returns a fumble 32 yards for a touchdownArizona at West Virginia, week 6Q1, 5:03 · Arizona 14, West Virginia 332Fumble return touchdown32Fumble return touchdownFumble return touchdownLee Molette III 32 yd Fumble Return (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)▶Watch from this play
Big 12 Conference
Q3, 2:33 · Texas Tech down 6, takes the leadThomas Castellanos finds Kenny Johnson for a 27-yard touchdownArizona at Texas Tech, week 9Q3, 2:33 · Texas Tech 24, Arizona 23Go-ahead score for Texas Tech in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Texas Tech in the third quarterT.Castellanos pass complete deep left to K.Johnson caught at ARI02, for 27 yards to the ARI00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 10:02 · Arizona down 4, takes the leadNoah Fifita finds Isaiah Mizell for a 94-yard touchdownArizona at Texas Tech, week 9Q2, 10:02 · Arizona 10, Texas Tech 794Ties the longest pass play of the season in the FBS94Ties the longest pass play of the season in the FBSTies the longest pass play of the season in the FBSN.Fifita pass complete deep right to I.Mizell caught at ARI46, for 94 yards to the TTU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 10:02 · Texas Tech down 7, ties itThomas Castellanos runs 8 yards for a touchdownArizona at Texas Tech, week 9Q3, 10:02 · Texas Tech 17, Arizona 17Texas Tech tied the game in the third quarterTexas Tech tied the game in the third quarterT.Castellanos rush left for 8 yards gain to the ARI00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 4:02 · Arizona down 3, takes the leadNoah Fifita finds Caleb Smith for a 38-yard touchdownArizona at Washington State, week 4Q3, 4:02 · Arizona 21, Washington State 17Go-ahead score for Arizona in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Arizona in the third quarterN.Fifita pass complete deep left to C.Smith caught at WSU03, for 38 yards to the WSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Arizona lost at Texas Tech after being 86% to win; the closest win was at Washington State, down to 11%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Arizona during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Arizona
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · ArizonaNoah Fifita leads Arizona with 2,464 passing yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+19 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Arizona fields an elite pass-first offense behind a strong defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Arizona reads strongest in red-zone defense (top 7%) and success rate allowed (top 12%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Arizona sits at the 5th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Arizona is worth +3.9 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 44th percentile of 133 programs
50% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (23-23 home, 14-29 away). Interval ±4.3.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Arizona has beaten the number by +0.6 more at home than away over 96 games. That is inside the ±7.0 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Arizona Stadium seats 50,782 and has averaged 88% full (44,608, 31 games reported). Visitors face the 24th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 622 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. 13% of the 2026 roster (14 of 105 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 53 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatChris Hunter is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Kedrick Reescano and Antwan Roberts split the carries (86/123 vs 37/123) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Isaiah Mizell (WR) and Tyler Powell (TE) split the targets (38/55 vs 17/55) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Arizona actually scores
91st percentile quality, 16th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Arizona’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 40th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 74th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Arizona hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
76th percentile success on standard downs, 94th on passing downs — a 18-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Arizona by half
1st-half offense ranks 88th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 89th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Arizona’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.24; 84th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.08. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.22 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Arizona’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arizona’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (73.1% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 243-play sample) — mid-pack, 133 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arizona’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 173-play sample) — mid-pack, 41 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 71% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
5 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 7% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~18% league rate.
2 interceptions of 28 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 49 penalties committed vs. 48 drawn on opponents, a 41-yard deficit.
446 penalty yards committed vs. 405 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Arizona
Most similar programs · ArizonaReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Arizona’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Usual during the game around Nov 6: 67°, between 59° and 80° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 65°, and 8 in 10 ran between 45° and 79° (48 of 49 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.