Next game
at Hiram
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
Charles A. Henry Field
Case Western Reserve 79% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Case Western Reserve
5-1Presidents' · Case Field · 2,400 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 41-6 vs Waynesburg
Our model gave Case Western Reserve 90% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Grove City 29%, Allegheny 64%
Win out 15% · expect 2.7 of 4 more wins
Case Western Reserve's chance to win each game left, from our model: Hiram 79%, Thiel 99%, Grove City 29%, Allegheny 64%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Hiram · our model 79% Case Western Reserve
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Case Western Reserve · 2026 schedule and results5-1Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 41%.Our rank entering each game: #521 to #481
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #521 | #569 | — | @Rochester (NY) | W 38-20 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #520 | #469 | — | Shenandoah | W 48-41 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #514 | #475 | — | Washington & Jefferson | L 7-35 | 2-1 | 0-1 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #526 | #524 | — | @Westminster (PA) | W 36-29 | 3-1 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #521 | #355 | — | Saint Francis | W 52-10 | 4-1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #481 | #604 | — | Waynesburg | W 41-6 | 5-1 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #483 | #578 | @Hiram | 1 pm ET79% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #482 | #652 | Thiel | 1 pm ET99% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Grove City | 1 pm ET29% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Allegheny | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Case Western Reserve, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Case Western Reserve: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Case Western Reserve has won four of its last five.
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Streak W3Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
Range of outcomes · Case Western Reserve · 2026
Range of outcomes · Case Western Reserve · 2026Case Western Reserve’s most likely regular season is 8-2. 95% of outcomes land from 7-3 to 9-1.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 5%; 7 wins 32%; 8 wins 48%; 9 wins 15%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-1
Game feel60shootoutscombined pts / game3rd highest-scoring of 13 in the Presidents'
Heart rate2-0white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 6)3rd most one-score games of 13 in the Presidents'
Margin+13.5competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 13 in the Presidents'
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Presidents' teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Case Western Reserve is the Division III program where engineering and science excellence drive the football team — a small university playing with Spartan discipline and the quiet confidence of 144+ consecutive wins under one legendary coach.
Title DroughtSince 1987 · 39 yrs
Fans here believe the chip is quiet but real: the belief that Case's disciplined, academically honest game is purer than the money-driven powerhouses, and that someday the scoreboard will prove it.
Game day
The experience
Case Western Reserve is the Division III program where engineering and science excellence drive the football team — a small university playing with Spartan discipline and the quiet confidence of 144+ consecutive wins under one legendary coach.
Playoff path
Case Western Reserve sits 3rd in the Presidents’ Conference and 52nd of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — on the at-large bubble — the conference title is the surer route.
Presidents' · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington & Jefferson | 4-0 | 5-1 | 65.9 |
| 2 | Grove City | 4-0 | 4-2 | 57.8 |
| 3 | Case Western Reserve | 3-1 | 5-1 | 61.3 |
| 4 | Allegheny | 3-1 | 5-1 | 59.3 |
| 5 | Hiram | 2-2 | 4-2 | 51.3 |
| 6 | Geneva | 2-2 | 3-3 | 50.0 |
| 7 | Westminster (PA) | 2-2 | 2-4 | 46.5 |
| 8 | Saint Vincent | 2-2 | 3-2 | 46.4 |
61.3 CFB Zeitgeist#52 of 245 D348.1 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the Presidents' Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-1
Signature win 52-10 over Saint Francis; toughest day 7-35 against Washington & Jefferson.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site