Next game
vs Rensselaer
Sat Oct 24 · 12 pm ET
Edwin Fauver Stadium · series 1-3, last win 2024
University of Rochester (NY) 26% to win · our ratings after 6 games
University of Rochester (NY)
3-3Liberty League · Edwin Fauver Stadium · 5,111 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 10
L 0-36 at Ithaca
Our model gave University of Rochester (NY) 23% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Union 20%, Rensselaer 26%, Hobart 28%
Win out 1% · expect 1.5 of 4 more wins
University of Rochester (NY)'s chance to win each game left, from our model: Rensselaer 26%, Hobart 28%, Union 20%, St. Lawrence 73%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Rensselaer · our model 26% University of Rochester (NY)
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 6
Schedule and results
University of Rochester (NY) · 2026 schedule and results3-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44%.Our rank entering each game: #569 to #568
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #569 | #521 | — | Case Western Reserve | L 20-38 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #571 | #597 | — | SUNY Morrisville | W 21-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #575 | #547 | — | @St. John Fisher | L 13-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #570 | #658 | — | @Hilbert | W 48-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #562 | #651 | — | Buffalo State | W 29-18 | 3-2 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #568 | #486 | — | @Ithaca | L 0-36 | 3-3 | 1-1 | |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #574 | #506 | Rensselaer | 12 pm ET26% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #574 | #508 | @Hobart | 1 pm ET28% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Union | 1 pm ET20% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | St. Lawrence | 12 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for University of Rochester (NY), through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for University of Rochester (NY): a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
University of Rochester (NY) has won three of its last five.
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6
Range of outcomes · University of Rochester (NY) · 2026
Range of outcomes · University of Rochester (NY) · 2026University of Rochester (NY)’s most likely regular season is 4-6. 99% of outcomes land from 3-7 to 6-4.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 11%; 4 wins 42%; 5 wins 35%; 6 wins 11%; 7 wins 1%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor4-8Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base6-6Mid-table finish.
Ceiling9-3Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-3
Game feel42rock fightscombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 7 in the Liberty League
Heart rate0-1some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)5th most one-score games of 7 in the Liberty League
Margin+1.5competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 7 in the Liberty League
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Liberty League teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Yellow Jackets of the University of Rochester — an elite research university whose football team grinds in the Liberty League at Edwin Fauver Stadium, playing the academic-first game on its own terms.
Standard GapA nationally prestigious research university whose football is an act…
Everyone knows Rochester for its research and its music school — the football Yellow Jackets grind in the Liberty League with nobody outside the campus paying attention.
Game day
The experience
The Yellow Jackets of the University of Rochester — an elite research university whose football team grinds in the Liberty League at Edwin Fauver Stadium, playing the academic-first game on its own terms.
Playoff path
University of Rochester (NY) sits 4th in the Liberty League and 135th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Liberty League · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ithaca | 3-0 | 5-1 | 58.6 |
| 2 | Rensselaer | 2-0 | 4-2 | 55.6 |
| 3 | Union | 2-1 | 3-3 | 51.4 |
| 4 | Rochester (NY) | 1-1 | 3-3 | 47.8 |
| 5 | Hobart | 1-2 | 3-3 | 52.9 |
| 6 | St. Lawrence | 0-2 | 2-4 | 44.2 |
| 7 | Buffalo State | 0-3 | 0-6 | 31.1 |
47.8 CFB Zeitgeist#135 of 245 D347.0 strength of schedule
Win the Liberty League for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 3-3
Signature win 48-6 over Hilbert; toughest day 0-36 against Ithaca.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site