Next game
vs Hilbert
Sat Oct 24 · 3 pm ET
Coyer Field · series 3-0, won the last 3
Buffalo State College 68% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Buffalo State College
0-6Liberty League · Coyer Field · 3,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 10
L 0-56 vs Rensselaer
Our model gave Buffalo State College 10% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Ithaca 1%
Win out <1% · expect 0.9 of 4 more wins
Buffalo State College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Hilbert 68%, Ithaca 1%, St. Lawrence 18%, Hobart 6%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Hilbert · our model 68% Buffalo State College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 6
Schedule and results
Buffalo State College · 2026 schedule and results0-6Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 55%.Our rank entering each game: #641 to #648
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #641 | #489 | — | @Brockport | L 0-68 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #638 | #637 | — | @Hartwick | L 13-47 | 0-2 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #643 | #579 | — | Alfred State | L 7-41 | 0-3 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #648 | #511 | — | @Union | L 14-63 | 0-4 | 0-1 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #651 | #562 | — | @Rochester (NY) | L 18-29 | 0-5 | 0-2 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #648 | #510 | — | Rensselaer | L 0-56 | 0-6 | 0-3 | |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #643 | #658 | Hilbert | 3 pm ET68% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #641 | #484 | Ithaca | 3 pm ET1% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @St. Lawrence | 1 pm ET18% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Hobart | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Buffalo State College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Buffalo State College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Buffalo State College has lost ten straight.
0-10 over the last 10, and lost the last ten.
Streak L10Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 0-10
Range of outcomes · Buffalo State College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Buffalo State College · 2026Buffalo State College’s most likely regular season is 1-9. 99% of outcomes land from 0-10 to 2-8.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
0 wins 24%; 1 wins 59%; 2 wins 16%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor0-12Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base0-12Mid-table finish.
Ceiling3-9Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 0-6
Game feel59shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 7 in the Liberty League
Heart rate0-0rarely closein one-score games (0 of 6)7th most one-score games of 7 in the Liberty League
Margin-42.0outgunnedavg scoring margin7th best margin of 7 in the Liberty League
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Liberty League teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Buffalo State is a regional SUNY program in its sixth season of Liberty League competition, building identity in a new conference landscape.
Title DroughtSince 2020 · 6 yrs
Fans here believe no chip. Buffalo State plays to establish legitimacy in a new conference.
Game day
The experience
Buffalo State is a regional SUNY program in its sixth season of Liberty League competition, building identity in a new conference landscape.
Playoff path
Buffalo State College sits 7th in the Liberty League and 237th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Liberty League · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ithaca | 3-0 | 5-1 | 58.6 |
| 2 | Rensselaer | 2-0 | 4-2 | 55.6 |
| 3 | Union | 2-1 | 3-3 | 51.4 |
| 4 | Rochester (NY) | 1-1 | 3-3 | 47.8 |
| 5 | Hobart | 1-2 | 3-3 | 52.9 |
| 6 | St. Lawrence | 0-2 | 2-4 | 44.2 |
| 7 | Buffalo State | 0-3 | 0-6 | 31.1 |
31.1 CFB Zeitgeist#237 of 245 D351.6 strength of schedule
Win the Liberty League for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 0-6
Signature win 18-29 over Rochester (NY); toughest day 0-68 against Brockport.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site