Next game
at Hartwick
Sat Oct 24 · 3 pm ET
Wright Stadium · series 1-0
Alfred State College 78% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Alfred State College
4-2Empire 8 · Pioneer Stadium · 1,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 14-24 vs Brockport
Our model gave Alfred State College 31% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: SUNY Cortland 5%, St. John Fisher 41%, Alfred 57%
Win out 1% · expect 1.8 of 4 more wins
Alfred State College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Hartwick 78%, SUNY Cortland 5%, Alfred 57%, St. John Fisher 41%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Hartwick · our model 78% Alfred State College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Alfred State College · 2026 schedule and results4-2Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 30%.Our rank entering each game: #585 to #568
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #585 | #642 | — | Thiel | W 74-13 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #582 | #659 | — | Hilbert | W 57-12 | 2-0 | 1-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #579 | #643 | — | @Buffalo State | W 41-7 | 3-0 | 1-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #567 | #484 | — | Utica | L 13-58 | 3-1 | 1-1 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #575 | #599 | — | @SUNY Morrisville | W 33-21 | 4-1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #568 | #493 | — | Brockport | L 14-24 | 4-2 | 2-2 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #561 | #621 | @Hartwick | 3 pm ET78% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #560 | #443 | @SUNY Cortland | 1 pm ET5% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Alfred | 1 pm ET57% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | St. John Fisher | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Alfred State College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Alfred State College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Alfred State College has won three of its last five.
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
Range of outcomes · Alfred State College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Alfred State College · 2026Alfred State College’s most likely regular season is 6-4. 94% of outcomes land from 5-5 to 7-3.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 5%; 5 wins 30%; 6 wins 44%; 7 wins 19%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel61shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 9 in the Empire 8
Heart rate0-0rarely closein one-score games (0 of 6)9th most one-score games of 9 in the Empire 8
Margin+16.2competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 9 in the Empire 8
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Empire 8 teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Alfred State is the brand-new Division III program that just joined Empire 8 in 2025 and celebrated its inaugural victory with the Alfred Cup rivalry born that same year.
Title DroughtSince 1995 · 31 yrs
No chip. The fanbase is building from the ground up.
Game day
The experience
Alfred State is the brand-new Division III program that just joined Empire 8 in 2025 and celebrated its inaugural victory with the Alfred Cup rivalry born that same year.
Playoff path
Alfred State College sits 5th in the Empire 8 Conference and 103rd of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Empire 8 · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUNY Cortland | 4-0 | 6-0 | 75.1 |
| 2 | Brockport | 3-0 | 5-1 | 62.7 |
| 3 | Utica | 2-1 | 5-1 | 68.4 |
| 4 | St. John Fisher | 2-1 | 5-1 | 60.2 |
| 5 | Alfred State | 2-2 | 4-2 | 52.5 |
| 6 | Alfred | 1-2 | 2-4 | 46.6 |
| 7 | SUNY Morrisville | 0-3 | 1-5 | 40.7 |
| 8 | Hartwick | 0-4 | 1-5 | 39.4 |
52.5 CFB Zeitgeist#103 of 245 D343.9 strength of schedule
Win the Empire 8 Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 74-13 over Thiel; toughest day 13-58 against Utica.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site