Next game
at Utica
Sat Oct 24 · 12 pm ET
Charles A. Gaetano Stadium · series 1-3, last win 2024
Alfred University 5% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Alfred University
2-4Empire 8 · Merrill Field at Yunevich Stadium · 1,435 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 7-45 vs SUNY Cortland
Our model gave Alfred University 12% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Utica 5%
Win out <1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Alfred University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Utica 5%, Brockport 16%, Alfred State 43%, SUNY Morrisville 66%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Utica · our model 5% Alfred University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Alfred University · 2026 schedule and results2-4Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 61%.Our rank entering each game: #566 to #557
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #566 | #483 | — | @Hobart | L 17-24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #560 | #482 | — | @Ithaca | L 3-27 | 0-2 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #563 | #603 | — | St. Lawrence | W 31-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #553 | #543 | — | St. John Fisher | L 15-33 | 1-3 | 0-1 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #569 | #625 | — | @Hartwick | W 27-7 | 2-3 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #557 | #458 | — | SUNY Cortland | L 7-45 | 2-4 | 1-2 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #562 | #467 | @Utica | 12 pm ET5% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #562 | #491 | Brockport | 12 pm ET16% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Alfred State | 1 pm ET43% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @SUNY Morrisville | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Alfred University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Alfred University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Alfred University has won two of its last five.
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
Range of outcomes · Alfred University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Alfred University · 2026Alfred University’s most likely regular season is 3-7. 94% of outcomes land from 2-8 to 4-6.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 15%; 3 wins 45%; 4 wins 33%; 5 wins 6%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base4-8Mid-table finish.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-4
Game feel40rock fightscombined pts / game9th highest-scoring of 9 in the Empire 8
Heart rate0-1white-knucklein one-score games (1 of 6)2nd most one-score games of 9 in the Empire 8
Margin-7.2competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 9 in the Empire 8
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Empire 8 teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Saxons of Alfred University in western New York — a nine-time Empire 8 champion playing football since 1895 at Merrill Field at Yunevich Stadium.
Title DroughtSince 2020 · 6 yrs
Alfred has played football since 1895 and won nine Empire 8 titles — a real program in a tiny town that outsiders never bother to learn.
Game day
The experience
The Saxons of Alfred University in western New York — a nine-time Empire 8 champion playing football since 1895 at Merrill Field at Yunevich Stadium.
Playoff path
Alfred University sits 6th in the Empire 8 Conference and 145th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Empire 8 · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUNY Cortland | 4-0 | 6-0 | 75.1 |
| 2 | Brockport | 3-0 | 5-1 | 62.7 |
| 3 | Utica | 2-1 | 5-1 | 68.4 |
| 4 | St. John Fisher | 2-1 | 5-1 | 60.2 |
| 5 | Alfred State | 2-2 | 4-2 | 52.5 |
| 6 | Alfred | 1-2 | 2-4 | 46.6 |
| 7 | SUNY Morrisville | 0-3 | 1-5 | 40.7 |
| 8 | Hartwick | 0-4 | 1-5 | 39.4 |
46.6 CFB Zeitgeist#145 of 245 D355.1 strength of schedule
Win the Empire 8 Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-4
Signature win 31-7 over St. Lawrence; toughest day 7-45 against SUNY Cortland.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site