Next game
at Union
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
Frank Bailey Field · series 3-1, last win 2024
Ithaca College 61% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Ithaca College
5-1Liberty League · Butterfield Stadium · 5,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 10
W 36-0 vs Rochester (NY)
Our model gave Ithaca College 77% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: SUNY Cortland 23%, Union 61%, Rensselaer 68%
Win out 9% · expect 2.5 of 4 more wins
Ithaca College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Union 61%, Buffalo State 99%, Rensselaer 68%, SUNY Cortland 23%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Union · our model 61% Ithaca College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 6
Schedule and results
Ithaca College · 2026 schedule and results5-1Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 32%.Our rank entering each game: #484 to #486
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #484 | #452 | — | @Johns Hopkins | L 21-30 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #482 | #560 | — | Alfred | W 27-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #483 | #660 | — | Hilbert | W 76-6 | 2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #485 | #612 | — | St. Lawrence | W 66-0 | 3-1 | 1-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #488 | #498 | — | @Hobart | W 27-20 | 4-1 | 2-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #486 | #568 | — | Rochester (NY) | W 36-0 | 5-1 | 3-0 | |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #486 | #513 | @Union | 1 pm ET61% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #484 | #641 | @Buffalo State | 3 pm ET99% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Rensselaer | 1 pm ET68% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | SUNY Cortland (N) | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Ithaca College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Ithaca College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Ithaca College has won five straight.
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Streak W5Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 8-2
Range of outcomes · Ithaca College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Ithaca College · 2026Ithaca College’s most likely regular season is 8-2. 90% of outcomes land from 6-4 to 8-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 10%; 7 wins 38%; 8 wins 42%; 9 wins 9%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-1
Game feel52even gamescombined pts / game3rd highest-scoring of 7 in the Liberty League
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)3rd most one-score games of 7 in the Liberty League
Margin+32.3comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 7 in the Liberty League
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Liberty League teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Bombers — a three-time NCAA Division III national champion, most recently in 1991 — and the leaders of the Cortaca Jug against Cortland, a rivalry that has packed Yankee Stadium and MetLife and set Division III attendance records.
Title DroughtSince 1991 · 35 yrs
Cortland holds the recent edge and the all-time Jug lead; Ithaca answers with three national titles and a stage, Yankee Stadium, most of the country will never see.
Game day
The experience
The Bombers, a three-time NCAA Division III national champion, most recently in 1991, and the leaders of the Cortaca Jug against Cortland, a rivalry that has packed Yankee Stadium and MetLife and set Division III attendance records.
Playoff path
Ithaca College sits 1st in the Liberty League and 67th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Liberty League · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ithaca | 3-0 | 5-1 | 58.6 |
| 2 | Rensselaer | 2-0 | 4-2 | 55.6 |
| 3 | Union | 2-1 | 3-3 | 51.4 |
| 4 | Rochester (NY) | 1-1 | 3-3 | 47.8 |
| 5 | Hobart | 1-2 | 3-3 | 52.9 |
| 6 | St. Lawrence | 0-2 | 2-4 | 44.2 |
| 7 | Buffalo State | 0-3 | 0-6 | 31.1 |
58.6 CFB Zeitgeist#67 of 245 D344.6 strength of schedule
Win the Liberty League for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-1
Signature win 76-6 over Hilbert; toughest day 21-30 against Johns Hopkins.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site