Next game: at Tennessee
Tennessee’s best edge on Kentucky is staying on schedule
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Kentucky offense against Tennessee defense
Tennessee offense against Kentucky defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.26 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 160 / 232 | 69.0 | 1755 #46 FBS | 7.6 | 14 #32 FBS | 1 | 151.6 | 47 | 60.8 | 7.7 | 6.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket surgeonHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #19 right now. This week's matchup — QB Minchey picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Jr. is the one who keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Season receipt Completion %69.9% 88th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.4% 94th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kenny Minchey's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Back · +0.28 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 88 | 487 | 5.5 | 8 #26 FBS | 77 | 14.1 | 14.1 | |
Yards by week → Power back· Boom-or-bustShort-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 88 carries and 8 catches in 7 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Baxter wears you down at the goal line. Baugh is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Rush TD rate9.1% 94th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry6.0 74th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View CJ Baxter's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.30 EPA/play | 26 | 8 | 71 | 443 | 6.2 | 3 | 75 | 9.7 | 13.9 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchant· Boom-or-bustCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 71 carries and 5 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Patterson hits the crease and outruns the angle. Baugh is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / carry6.7 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share6.6% bottom 23th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jason Patterson's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.17 EPA/play | 2 | 6 | 43 | 224 | 5.2 | 1 | 39 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 43 carries and 2 catches in 6 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Barnes does a little of everything without one standout trait. Baugh is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / carry6.1 76th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share4.4% bottom 13th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Jovantae Barnes's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.45 EPA/play | 19 | 8 | 38 | 507 #72 FBS | 13.3 | 3 | 44 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 38 catches and 1 carry in 8 games, about as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Darby wins underneath on volume and route precision. Wilson is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume38 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Kenny Darby's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.47 EPA/play | 81 | 8 | 39 | 324 | 8.3 | 3 | 21 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Impact starter — 39 catches and 4 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Rodriguez shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Harpring is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception8.9 bottom 29th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume39 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Willie Rodriguez's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.33 EPA/play | 7 | 4 | 18 | 221 | 12.3 | 1 | 53 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 4 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View DJ Miller's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.38 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 17 | 197 | 11.6 | 1 | 32 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Anderson moves the chains on third down. Wilson is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.9 bottom 44th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume17 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nic Anderson's full player page | ||||||||
| 17 | — | 8 | 125 | 15.6 | 0 | 33 | ||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +0.72 EPA/play | 87 | 8 | 9 | 120 | 13.3 | 3 | 32 | |
Yards by week → Red-zone weaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. This week's matchup — TE Boyer is the first read once you cross the 20. Harpring is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt TD rate33.3% 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume9 bottom 19th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Henry Boyer's full player page | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.27 EPA/play | 8 | 5 | 9 | 95 | 10.6 | 1 | 28 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 9 catches and 8 carries in 5 games. Fewer catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Skinner creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Harpring is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception14.9 86th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Plays like View Mikkel Skinner's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.60 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 10 | 0 | 20 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 8 | 27 | 16 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 5 #38 FBS | 9 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 27 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.8% 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mi'Quise Grace's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 94 | 6 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 25 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.0% 53th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tavion Gadson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaden Williams's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 6 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.0% bottom 50th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ahmad Breaux's full player page | |||||||
| 7 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 8 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 72 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume72 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate5.6% bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Grant Godfrey's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 7 | 53 | 24 | 29 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 53 tackles in 7 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Elijah Barnes's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 2 | 7 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.7% bottom 50th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume23 bottom 20th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sam Greene's full player page | |||||||||
| 8 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 5 | 8 | 65 | 3 | 4 #6 FBS | 3 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — 65 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.6% bottom 34th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jordan Castell's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 14 | 8 | 59 | 3 | 4 #6 FBS | 1 | 0.5 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — 59 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.1% bottom 36th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ty Bryant's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 12 | 7 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 33 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Hasaan Sykes's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 20 | 6 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 26 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.4% 84th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Terhyon Nichols's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 3 | 6 | 17 | 7 #20 FBS | 0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate41.2% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Aaron Gates's full player page | |||||||
| 27 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 30 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 88 | 8 | 10/13 | 76.9 | 31/31 | 61 | 52 |
| 91 | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 3 | 10 | 443 | 44.3 | 58 | 3 | 1 | |
| 48 | 5 | 17 | 692 | 40.7 | 49 | 3 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.60 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 8 | 136 | 17 | 0 | 27 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.18 EPA/play | 12 | 7 | 10 | 87 | 8.7 | 1 | 55 |
Biggest plays from Kentucky’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Kentucky’s games this season, whoever made them.
Overtime, 0:00 · Kentucky down 7, takes the leadCJ Baxter Jr. runs 1 yard for a touchdownLSU at Kentucky, week 6Overtime, 0:00 · Kentucky 35, LSU 34Overtime touchdown for KentuckyOvertime touchdown for KentuckyC.Baxter rush left for 1 yard gain to the LSU00 touchdown K.Minchey rush attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 1:17 · Kentucky up 1Jordan Castell takes an interception 41 yards for a pick-sixKentucky at Oklahoma, week 7Q4, 1:17 · Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 1341Pick-six41Pick-sixPick-sixJordan Castell 41 yd Interception Return (Adam Zouagui Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q4, 0:21 · Oklahoma down 8Ty Bryant intercepts John MateerKentucky at Oklahoma, week 7Q4, 0:21 · Oklahoma 13, Kentucky 21▲31%Oklahoma’s chance to win, 2% to 33%▲31%Oklahoma’s chance to win, 2% to 33%J.Mateer pass intercepted by T.Bryant at UK25, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
Q1, 6:35 · Alabama down 7, ties itLuke Metz takes an interception 34 yards for a pick-sixAlabama at Kentucky, week 2Q1, 6:35 · Alabama 7, Kentucky 734Pick-six34Pick-sixPick-sixK.Minchey pass intercepted by L.Metz at UK34 L.Metz return 34 yards to the UK00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playSEC- Q2, 1:12 · Kentucky down 7, ties itJason Patterson runs 75 yards for a touchdownSouth Alabama at Kentucky, week 4Q2, 1:12 · Kentucky 21, South Alabama 217575-yard touchdown run7575-yard touchdown run75-yard touchdown runJ.Patterson rush middle for 75 yards gain to the SA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 10:11 · Kentucky tiedMi'Quise Grace takes an interception 2 yards for a pick-sixAlabama at Kentucky, week 2Q1, 10:11 · Kentucky 7, Alabama 02Pick-six2Pick-sixPick-sixK.Russell pass intercepted by M.Humphrey-Grace at ALA02 M.Humphrey-Grace return 2 yards to the ALA00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playSEC
How scary each game got
Kentucky lost to Alabama after being 82% to win; the closest win was at South Carolina, down to 1%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Kentucky during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Kentucky
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · KentuckyGrant Godfrey leads Kentucky with 72 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+15 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Kentucky fields a strong methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Kentucky reads strongest in red-zone finish (top 6%) and success rate (top 11%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Kentucky sits at the 3rd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Kentucky is worth +6.2 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 85th percentile of 133 programs
61% at home, 45% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (33-21 home, 18-22 away). Interval ±4.1.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Kentucky has beaten the number by +0.8 more at home than away over 102 games. That is inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Kroger Field seats 61,000 and has averaged 98% full (59,894, 35 games reported). Visitors cover a median 296 miles to get here since 2018 — 34th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 18% of the 2026 roster (19 of 106 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 62 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatHardley Gilmore IV is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatKendrick Law is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
CJ Baxter and Jason Patterson split the carries (84/155 vs 71/155) -- but the job isn't split the same way. CJ Baxter produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Kenny Darby (WR) and Willie Rodriguez (TE) split the targets (50/95 vs 45/95) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Kenny Darby produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Kentucky actually scores
71st percentile quality, 21st percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Kentucky’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 64th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 50th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Kentucky hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
90th percentile success on standard downs, 51st on passing downs — a 39-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Kentucky by half
1st-half offense ranks 71st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 72nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Kentucky’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.22; 78th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.56 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Kentucky’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (70.2% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 206-play sample) — mid-pack, 120 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Kentucky’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.3% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 229-play sample) — mid-pack, 69 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 55% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
6 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in at a normal clip: 23% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.
12 interceptions of 52 disrupted passes (40 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Roughly even on flags: 36 penalties committed vs. 47 drawn on opponents.
335 penalty yards committed vs. 349 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Kentucky
Most similar programs · KentuckyReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 48°, between 37° and 60° in about 7 in 10 games (30 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 61°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 80° (47 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.