New Mexico State

1-2

Conference USA · Tony Sanchez, year 3 (8-19) · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 28,853 · 9,189 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#120 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #119 (-15.0) · FPI #119
The marketno line yetvs New Mexico · our model 35% New Mexico State · a number, not a pick

LastL 19–29 at Hawai'i · Sat Sep 12 · James Jones 78 rush yds, 1 TD, 14 rec yds

Nextvs New Mexico · Sat Sep 26 · 3:30 pm ET · Aggie Memorial Stadium · series 24-65-2, lost the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
29.0
Pts allowed/game
25.7
Total yards/gm#6 / 138 · 96th pct
409.7
Rush yards/gm#45 / 138 · 68th pct
135.3
Pass yards/gm#4 / 138 · 97th pct
274.3
Yards allowed/gm#132 / 138 · 5th pct
358.7
Rush yds allowed/gmT-#109 / 138 · 21st pct
118.0
SacksT-#60 / 138 · 50th pct
4
InterceptionsT-#29 / 115 · 61st pct
2
3rd-down conv#23 / 138 · 84th pct
52.5%
All 93 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1229409.7/gm6.24/play#6 / 138 · 96th pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
1076358.7/gm5.49/play#132 / 138 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
406135.3/gm2.06/play#45 / 138 · 68th pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
354118.0/gm1.81/playT-#109 / 138 · 21st pct#66 / 70 · 6th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
9632.0/gmT-#15 / 138 · 89th pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
9230.7/gm#127 / 138 · 8th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
41.3/gmT-#51 / 138 · 54th pctT-#34 / 70 · 44th pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
62.0/gmT-#126 / 138 · 7th pctT-#68 / 70 · 3rd pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
823274.3/gm4.18/play#4 / 138 · 97th pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
722240.7/gm3.68/play#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
10133.7/gm#5 / 138 · 97th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
10434.7/gm#136 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
5919.7/gmT-#9 / 138 · 93rd pctT-#3 / 70 · 95th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
6722.3/gm#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
51.7/gmT-#33 / 138 · 71st pctT-#24 / 70 · 60th pctT-#2 / 10 · 75th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
31.0/gmT-#75 / 138 · 36th pctT-#47 / 70 · 23rd pctT-#6 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
139.2139.2#68 / 115 · 41st pct#43 / 60 · 29th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp
126.5126.5#47 / 91 · 49th pct#30 / 42 · 30th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
31.0/gmT-#8 / 138 · 89th pctT-#5 / 70 · 91st pctT-#1 / 10 · 90th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
31.0/gmT-#110 / 138 · 16th pctT-#60 / 70 · 11th pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
41.3/gmT-#60 / 138 · 50th pctT-#36 / 70 · 40th pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp
51.7/gmT-#101 / 138 · 20th pctT-#56 / 70 · 14th pctT-#6 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
144.7/gmT-#29 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 70 · 68th pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp
103.3/gmT-#66 / 138 · 47th pctT-#42 / 70 · 37th pctT-#3 / 10 · 65th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
6120.3/gmT-#7 / 138 · 95th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
5518.3/gm#132 / 138 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
217.0/gm#3 / 138 · 98th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
186.0/gmT-#130 / 138 · 4th pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
4013.3/gmT-#5 / 138 · 96th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
4214.0/gmT-#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
20.7/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 10 · 50th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
20.7/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
51.7/gmT-#27 / 138 · 74th pctT-#13 / 70 · 74th pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
31.0/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 10 · 50th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
85:2928:30/gm#7 / 138 · 95th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp
94:3131:30/gm#135 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Pocket Passer · +0.11 EPA/play3356 / 9757.7781
#6 FBS
8.15
#22 FBS
3136.24559.67.14.0
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Balanced Back · +0.04 EPA/play2343243
#9 FBS
5.72
#43 FBS
46
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Deep Threat · +0.33 EPA/play1314239
#11 FBS
17.12
#24 FBS
46
+0.36 EPA/play62710414.9133
+0.72 EPA/play11258316.6040
+0.70 EPA/play1535428.4014
+0.31 EPA/play736427011

2026 stat leaders · New Mexico State

through 3 games

Nicolas Sessions leads New Mexico State with 21 tackles through 3 games.

1. Nicolas Sessions S 21 tackles
2. Tyler King WR 239 receiving yards
3. Trey Hedden QB 781 passing yards
4. James Jones RB 243 rushing yards
5. Tory Gethers LB 15 tackles
How They Play · 2026

New Mexico State fields a strong pass-first offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
75th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
54% pass plays
Defense
45th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
65th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · New Mexico State · 2026

New Mexico State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 15%) and rushing epa (top 15%); the crux lives in red-zone defense, where New Mexico State sits at the 15th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.23
75th
Success Rate +0.44
75th
Explosive Plays +1.45
85th
Rushing EPA +0.12
85th
Red-Zone Finish +3.93
65th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.13
45th
Success Rate Allowed +0.41
45th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.17
65th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.20
45th
Red-Zone Defense +4.17
15th

hidden math · special situations

Field Position (O) +25.02
25th
Passing EPA +0.42
65th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.02
65th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 3 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 10 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · New Mexico State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

New Mexico State is worth +7.1 points more at home than on the road.

Top tenth of FBS, 92nd percentile of 133 programs

39% at home, 21% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (12–19 home, 10–38 away). Interval ±4.0.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, New Mexico State has beaten the number by +3.5 more at home than away over 76 games — inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Aggie Memorial Stadium seats 28,853 and has averaged 43% full (12,345, 21 games reported). Visitors face the 2nd-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 1,055 miles since 2018. Some of what the band above measures is the map, not the crowd. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 7% of the 2026 roster (7 of 104 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 40 home games since 2018.

Home12–19Away10–38Edge+7.1 ±4.0Visitor trip1,055 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

New Mexico State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 91st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 53rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 91st pctileCompetitive snaps only · 53rd pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does New Mexico State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

45th percentile success on standard downs, 75th on passing downs — a 30-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantNew Mexico StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

New Mexico State by half

1st-half offense ranks 33rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 45th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 33rd pctile2nd half · 45th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How New Mexico State’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: David Yost (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 53% → 2026: 49% · 5-pt range · #155 of 184 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 58% → 2026: 36% · 21-pt range · #28 of 182 · more than most
Defense: Joe Morris (2024–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 31% → 2026: 49% · 23-pt range · #10 of 203 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 32% → 2026: 36% · 26-pt range · #13 of 200 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 19% → 2025: 20% · 1-pt range · #190 of 189 · less than most
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), New Mexico State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.4% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 70-play sample) — mid-pack, 14 of 41 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), New Mexico State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.5% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 68-play sample) — mid-pack, 13 of 18 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=70 short-zone plays, raw rate 64.3%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=68 short-zone plays, raw rate 69.1%
Havoc & trenchesDisruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc & trenches

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc Rate (D) 0.131
5th
Havoc Allowed (O) 0.158
35th
Front-Seven Havoc (D) 0.078
35th
Secondary Havoc (D) 0.053
35th
Stuff Rate (D) 0.236
85th
Stuff Rate Allowed (O) 0.135
95th
Line Yards (O) 3.148
85th
Line Yards Allowed (D) 2.875
55th
Standard-Downs Success (O) 0.445
25th
Standard-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.463
75th
Passing-Downs Success (O) 0.377
75th
Passing-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.309
5th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank New Mexico State

CFB Zeitgeist

#120

-5.0

SP+

#119

-15.0

FPI

#119

-13.0

Elo

#123

1261

The national models put New Mexico State between 119th and 123rd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 120th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · New Mexico State

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

76°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.

Based on 61 home games with weather data.

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